How strong will Ian get?

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How strong will Ian get?

Poll ended at Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:29 pm

- Cat 1 or below (<=80 kts)
1
2%
- Cat 2 (85-95 kts)
1
2%
- Cat 3 (100-110 kts)
11
25%
- Low-end Cat 4 (115-125 kts)
14
32%
- High-end Cat 4 (130-135 kts)
10
23%
- Cat 5 (>=140 kts)
7
16%
 
Total votes: 44

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Teban54
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How strong will Ian get?

#1 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:24 pm

With the 18z best track having TD10 as Hermine, we can finally ask this question.

- Cat 1 or below (<=80 kts)
- Cat 2 (85-95 kts)
- Cat 3 (100-110 kts)
- Low-end Cat 4 (115-125 kts)
- High-end Cat 4 (130-135 kts)
- Cat 5 (>=140 kts)

Mods, can you make this a poll?
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:30 pm

Made this question as a poll that will close for voting on Sunday at 3:29 PM EDT.
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#3 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:43 pm

Voted Cat 3 (probably high end) given the current shear and interaction with Cuba.
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#4 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:51 pm

Category 5. WCAR or in the EGoM
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#5 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:54 pm

I'll go with 115kts/941mb

I wouldn't really be surprised if it got stronger than that, but there's a lot of variables here
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#6 Postby kevin » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:04 pm

I voted for a high-end cat 4 (130 kt, 932 mb). If this season gets a cat 5 this seems like the most likely one, but I think it'll stay just below that due to time constraints and land interaction with Cuba.
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:00 pm

I'll say high-end Cat 4 as well, 130 kt with 935 mb, around or just before Florida landfall.
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#8 Postby Jonny » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:10 pm

Somewhere between Cat. 3 and mid-level Cat. 4.
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#9 Postby Chris90 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:47 am

I'm really going out on a limb here, and there's an extremely good chance I'll be very, very wrong, but I voted for Cat 5, and to be more specific, 160kts/897mb in the WCar. It would really depend on the upper environment being as good as some of the models suggest and Ian building a tight structure to take full advantage of the extreme oceanic conditions with very favorable shear, so a very tall order.

Also, just a fun fact but Gilbert set the minimum pressure record of 888mb in 1988, and that stood for 17 years until Wilma bottomed out at 882mb in 2005. Of course, Rita also went sub-900mb that year as well. It's now been 17 years since the sub-900mb monsters of 2005, and before them it had been 17 years since Gilbert, maybe there's some kind of strange 17 year cycle. Probably not, and that lacks any kind of science. 1988 was thrown around as an analog for this year quite a bit though the past few months.
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#10 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:17 am

Chris90 wrote:I'm really going out on a limb here, and there's an extremely good chance I'll be very, very wrong, but I voted for Cat 5, and to be more specific, 160kts/897mb in the WCar. It would really depend on the upper environment being as good as some of the models suggest and Ian building a tight structure to take full advantage of the extreme oceanic conditions with very favorable shear, so a very tall order.

Also, just a fun fact but Gilbert set the minimum pressure record of 888mb in 1988, and that stood for 17 years until Wilma bottomed out at 882mb in 2005. Of course, Rita also went sub-900mb that year as well. It's now been 17 years since the sub-900mb monsters of 2005, and before them it had been 17 years since Gilbert, maybe there's some kind of strange 17 year cycle. Probably not, and that lacks any kind of science. 1988 was thrown around as an analog for this year quite a bit though the past few months.

Something I need to refresh myself on is if these sub-900 mb hurricanes (in Atlantic) had not only the best OHC/SSTs to use but if the wind shear was near absolute 0 instead of just say <10 kts. Also the same for the less cited mid-level shear. A chunk of the equation is that structure mentioned that Ian will develop cuz if that goes wonky a sub-900 is out of the question. Beyond that its beyond our current understanding as to what makes a freefall explosive deepening go to what lowest mb. Forward speed looks ideal for Ian.

I voted low-end CAT4, I'll say 115 kts/941 mb.
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Re: How strong will Ian get?

#11 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:24 pm

High end Cat 4, 135 kt, pending post-season analysis.

I myself casted my vote at the last minute possible, but 30 minutes later already felt it was too bullish. Honestly surprised it verified in the end.
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Re: How strong will Ian get?

#12 Postby mantis83 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:31 pm

my vote is cat 4, 130kt, and will make landfall at cayo costa...at 3:05 pm ...hope i'm right... :eek:
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Re: How strong will Ian get?

#13 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:19 pm

This is going to be a close one, the true results won't come until Ian's TCR comes out.
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#14 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:36 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:I'll go with 115kts/941mb

I wouldn't really be surprised if it got stronger than that, but there's a lot of variables here

This prediction was looking pretty good yesterday until I woke up this morning to a borderline Cat 5... My pressure prediction wasn't too bad though.

The destruction down there is really tough to watch, hopefully everyone here that is involved stays safe.

It's pretty crazy that this is the third year in a row with a 130kt+ landfall somewhere in the gulf, and even crazier that we've had 4 in the last 5 years.
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Re: How strong will Ian (TD9) get?

#15 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:30 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I'll say high-end Cat 4 as well, 130 kt with 935 mb, around or just before Florida landfall.


wow
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