Why does the "I curse" exist?

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Why does the "I curse" exist?

#1 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:48 pm

Now that we are faced with the potential for yet another destructive and notable I storm, this really got me wondering, but why exactly does the "I curse" exist? From Irma to Ida to Ivan to Ike to Inez and so on. Why is it the letter "I" or the 9th named storm, in particular? If it was as simple as I storms typically occurring during peak season, then that does not explain why H or J storms don't have as many retirable or retired names given H and J storms typically occur during peak season too (H has 6 and J has 5, which is quite a statistical difference from the 12 with I). Is this just a statistical freak occurrence/coincidence or is there more to it than what we are seeing? I'd love to hear and see what others in S2K think.
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#2 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:54 pm

Probably just a coincidence like you said H I and J storms all usually form around the peak of the hurricane season. Storms like Ivan, Ike, and Ida all could have easily been a different name if things went a little differently.
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#3 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:30 pm

Not me! :lol:

The letter I is almost always at the peak of hurricane season
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#4 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:59 pm

TBH I think 09L could have been Hermine and would have been except the NHC secretly enjoys the I curse.
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#5 Postby zhukm29 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:39 pm

somethingfunny wrote:TBH I think 09L could have been Hermine and would have been except the NHC secretly enjoys the I curse.


Legitimately think this is actually true haha - they pulled the trigger on 10L kind of fast today. Usually they tend to be more conservative naming systems far out there and like to wait for clear evidence, especially with no ASCAT available and ADT/SAB/TAFB still indicating a tropical depression (even though I do think those estimates were kind of low). Reminds me of Rose last year where they took a long time to classify the storm just because they wanted to be super sure it was classifiable. And then today, boom, Hermine gets named immediately after leaving the coast of Africa :lol:

The "I" curse has been going on for so long (every I storm since 2019 has caused >$1B in damages), I wouldn't be surprised if subconsciously people preferred this storm to be named Ian instead of Hermine just to fit the pattern. The name isn't going to change the devastation of the storm, so why not continue one of the most notorious patterns known (and memed) among the weather community?

In the past, I would have said that the "I" curse exists because it often happens during the peak of hurricane season. However, this will be the 4th season of a devastating I storm, and the past 4 seasons have been anything but normal. We had

  • a season that started off really slow and then spammed systems all the way up to the S name (2019)
  • a season with so many storms that the I name formed in July (2020)
  • a season that got to an early start and then suddenly died in October (2021)
  • a season where absolutely nothing formed in August for the first time in a quarter of a century (2022)

These four seasons were anything but similar, but one thing ties them together - regardless of when the I storm formed, be in July, August, or September, or whether it was a tropical storm, hurricane, or major - it was destructive and impactful. Oh, and 2020 even went into the Greeks and gave us a near category 5 in November whose name was literally the letter "I" in Greek. There are some things that are so coincidental that it almost seems ridiculous that things ended up happening the way they did.

Plus, it isn't just these four years, this will be I's 13th time on the chopping block (14 if you count "Iota"). As big as it is, retirement is not actually that common of a phenomenon, so the fact that "I" has been retired at double the rate of "H" and "J" is pretty significant.

Oh, and just to make things fun, the letter "I" is one of the least common first initials among the peak season letters, making it a pain to look for replacements after almost every year. Meanwhile, to add to the pain, the letters "H" and "J" are some of the most common first initials, but don't get retired as often! So many "H" and "J" names waiting for a turn on the list, yet we're stuck trying to come up with creative and recognizable names that starts with the pesky letter in between them. Mother Nature sure likes playing with us :wink:
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#6 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:14 pm

zhukm29 wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:TBH I think 09L could have been Hermine and would have been except the NHC secretly enjoys the I curse.


Legitimately think this is actually true haha - they pulled the trigger on 10L kind of fast today. Usually they tend to be more conservative naming systems far out there and like to wait for clear evidence, especially with no ASCAT available and ADT/SAB/TAFB still indicating a tropical depression (even though I do think those estimates were kind of low). Reminds me of Rose last year where they took a long time to classify the storm just because they wanted to be super sure it was classifiable. And then today, boom, Hermine gets named immediately after leaving the coast of Africa :lol:

The "I" curse has been going on for so long (every I storm since 2019 has caused >$1B in damages), I wouldn't be surprised if subconsciously people preferred this storm to be named Ian instead of Hermine just to fit the pattern. The name isn't going to change the devastation of the storm, so why not continue one of the most notorious patterns known (and memed) among the weather community?

In the past, I would have said that the "I" curse exists because it often happens during the peak of hurricane season. However, this will be the 4th season of a devastating I storm, and the past 4 seasons have been anything but normal. We had

  • a season that started off really slow and then spammed systems all the way up to the S name (2019)
  • a season with so many storms that the I name formed in July (2020)
  • a season that got to an early start and then suddenly died in October (2021)
  • a season where absolutely nothing formed in August for the first time in a quarter of a century (2022)

These four seasons were anything but similar, but one thing ties them together - regardless of when the I storm formed, be in July, August, or September, or whether it was a tropical storm, hurricane, or major - it was destructive and impactful. Oh, and 2020 even went into the Greeks and gave us a near category 5 in November whose name was literally the letter "I" in Greek. There are some things that are so coincidental that it almost seems ridiculous that things ended up happening the way they did.

Plus, it isn't just these four years, this will be I's 13th time on the chopping block (14 if you count "Iota"). As big as it is, retirement is not actually that common of a phenomenon, so the fact that "I" has been retired at double the rate of "H" and "J" is pretty significant.

Oh, and just to make things fun, the letter "I" is one of the least common first initials among the peak season letters, making it a pain to look for replacements after almost every year. Meanwhile, to add to the pain, the letters "H" and "J" are some of the most common first initials, but don't get retired as often! So many "H" and "J" names waiting for a turn on the list, yet we're stuck trying to come up with creative and recognizable names that starts with the pesky letter in between them. Mother Nature sure likes playing with us :wink:

Another possible hidden motive is to prevent Hermine 2022 from impacting the same area as Hermine 2016 did. Some Twitter Mets already said they fear the communication nightmare that would come with it.

Of course, that's just speculation.
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#7 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:18 pm

Teban54 wrote:
zhukm29 wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:TBH I think 09L could have been Hermine and would have been except the NHC secretly enjoys the I curse.


Legitimately think this is actually true haha - they pulled the trigger on 10L kind of fast today. Usually they tend to be more conservative naming systems far out there and like to wait for clear evidence, especially with no ASCAT available and ADT/SAB/TAFB still indicating a tropical depression (even though I do think those estimates were kind of low). Reminds me of Rose last year where they took a long time to classify the storm just because they wanted to be super sure it was classifiable. And then today, boom, Hermine gets named immediately after leaving the coast of Africa :lol:

The "I" curse has been going on for so long (every I storm since 2019 has caused >$1B in damages), I wouldn't be surprised if subconsciously people preferred this storm to be named Ian instead of Hermine just to fit the pattern. The name isn't going to change the devastation of the storm, so why not continue one of the most notorious patterns known (and memed) among the weather community?

In the past, I would have said that the "I" curse exists because it often happens during the peak of hurricane season. However, this will be the 4th season of a devastating I storm, and the past 4 seasons have been anything but normal. We had

  • a season that started off really slow and then spammed systems all the way up to the S name (2019)
  • a season with so many storms that the I name formed in July (2020)
  • a season that got to an early start and then suddenly died in October (2021)
  • a season where absolutely nothing formed in August for the first time in a quarter of a century (2022)

These four seasons were anything but similar, but one thing ties them together - regardless of when the I storm formed, be in July, August, or September, or whether it was a tropical storm, hurricane, or major - it was destructive and impactful. Oh, and 2020 even went into the Greeks and gave us a near category 5 in November whose name was literally the letter "I" in Greek. There are some things that are so coincidental that it almost seems ridiculous that things ended up happening the way they did.

Plus, it isn't just these four years, this will be I's 13th time on the chopping block (14 if you count "Iota"). As big as it is, retirement is not actually that common of a phenomenon, so the fact that "I" has been retired at double the rate of "H" and "J" is pretty significant.

Oh, and just to make things fun, the letter "I" is one of the least common first initials among the peak season letters, making it a pain to look for replacements after almost every year. Meanwhile, to add to the pain, the letters "H" and "J" are some of the most common first initials, but don't get retired as often! So many "H" and "J" names waiting for a turn on the list, yet we're stuck trying to come up with creative and recognizable names that starts with the pesky letter in between them. Mother Nature sure likes playing with us :wink:

Another possible hidden motive is to prevent Hermine 2022 from impacting the same area as Hermine 2016 did. Some Twitter Mets already said they fear the communication nightmare that would come with it.

Of course, that's just speculation.


The most likely part is that the far Eastern Atlantic system is better organized and symmetrical compared to the one that we were watching in the Caribbean.
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#8 Postby zhukm29 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:44 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
zhukm29 wrote:
Legitimately think this is actually true haha - they pulled the trigger on 10L kind of fast today. Usually they tend to be more conservative naming systems far out there and like to wait for clear evidence, especially with no ASCAT available and ADT/SAB/TAFB still indicating a tropical depression (even though I do think those estimates were kind of low). Reminds me of Rose last year where they took a long time to classify the storm just because they wanted to be super sure it was classifiable. And then today, boom, Hermine gets named immediately after leaving the coast of Africa :lol:

The "I" curse has been going on for so long (every I storm since 2019 has caused >$1B in damages), I wouldn't be surprised if subconsciously people preferred this storm to be named Ian instead of Hermine just to fit the pattern. The name isn't going to change the devastation of the storm, so why not continue one of the most notorious patterns known (and memed) among the weather community?

In the past, I would have said that the "I" curse exists because it often happens during the peak of hurricane season. However, this will be the 4th season of a devastating I storm, and the past 4 seasons have been anything but normal. We had

  • a season that started off really slow and then spammed systems all the way up to the S name (2019)
  • a season with so many storms that the I name formed in July (2020)
  • a season that got to an early start and then suddenly died in October (2021)
  • a season where absolutely nothing formed in August for the first time in a quarter of a century (2022)

These four seasons were anything but similar, but one thing ties them together - regardless of when the I storm formed, be in July, August, or September, or whether it was a tropical storm, hurricane, or major - it was destructive and impactful. Oh, and 2020 even went into the Greeks and gave us a near category 5 in November whose name was literally the letter "I" in Greek. There are some things that are so coincidental that it almost seems ridiculous that things ended up happening the way they did.

Plus, it isn't just these four years, this will be I's 13th time on the chopping block (14 if you count "Iota"). As big as it is, retirement is not actually that common of a phenomenon, so the fact that "I" has been retired at double the rate of "H" and "J" is pretty significant.

Oh, and just to make things fun, the letter "I" is one of the least common first initials among the peak season letters, making it a pain to look for replacements after almost every year. Meanwhile, to add to the pain, the letters "H" and "J" are some of the most common first initials, but don't get retired as often! So many "H" and "J" names waiting for a turn on the list, yet we're stuck trying to come up with creative and recognizable names that starts with the pesky letter in between them. Mother Nature sure likes playing with us :wink:

Another possible hidden motive is to prevent Hermine 2022 from impacting the same area as Hermine 2016 did. Some Twitter Mets already said they fear the communication nightmare that would come with it.

Of course, that's just speculation.


The most likely part is that the far Eastern Atlantic system is better organized and symmetrical compared to the one that we were watching in the Caribbean.


Yeah, I agree, I just thought they were going to wait for an ASCAT pass that was to go over the area this evening before pulling the trigger, since they usually do that with storms in the far-out Atlantic. But I'm sure they have internal data that indicated 10L had TS winds, since it definitely looked the part.
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#9 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:13 pm

zhukm29 wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:TBH I think 09L could have been Hermine and would have been except the NHC secretly enjoys the I curse.


Legitimately think this is actually true haha - they pulled the trigger on 10L kind of fast today. Usually they tend to be more conservative naming systems far out there and like to wait for clear evidence, especially with no ASCAT available and ADT/SAB/TAFB still indicating a tropical depression (even though I do think those estimates were kind of low). Reminds me of Rose last year where they took a long time to classify the storm just because they wanted to be super sure it was classifiable. And then today, boom, Hermine gets named immediately after leaving the coast of Africa :lol:

The "I" curse has been going on for so long (every I storm since 2019 has caused >$1B in damages), I wouldn't be surprised if subconsciously people preferred this storm to be named Ian instead of Hermine just to fit the pattern. The name isn't going to change the devastation of the storm, so why not continue one of the most notorious patterns known (and memed) among the weather community?

In the past, I would have said that the "I" curse exists because it often happens during the peak of hurricane season. However, this will be the 4th season of a devastating I storm, and the past 4 seasons have been anything but normal. We had

  • a season that started off really slow and then spammed systems all the way up to the S name (2019)
  • a season with so many storms that the I name formed in July (2020)
  • a season that got to an early start and then suddenly died in October (2021)
  • a season where absolutely nothing formed in August for the first time in a quarter of a century (2022)

These four seasons were anything but similar, but one thing ties them together - regardless of when the I storm formed, be in July, August, or September, or whether it was a tropical storm, hurricane, or major - it was destructive and impactful. Oh, and 2020 even went into the Greeks and gave us a near category 5 in November whose name was literally the letter "I" in Greek. There are some things that are so coincidental that it almost seems ridiculous that things ended up happening the way they did.

Plus, it isn't just these four years, this will be I's 13th time on the chopping block (14 if you count "Iota"). As big as it is, retirement is not actually that common of a phenomenon, so the fact that "I" has been retired at double the rate of "H" and "J" is pretty significant.

Oh, and just to make things fun, the letter "I" is one of the least common first initials among the peak season letters, making it a pain to look for replacements after almost every year. Meanwhile, to add to the pain, the letters "H" and "J" are some of the most common first initials, but don't get retired as often! So many "H" and "J" names waiting for a turn on the list, yet we're stuck trying to come up with creative and recognizable names that starts with the pesky letter in between them. Mother Nature sure likes playing with us :wink:


I'm starting to wonder if the WMO is going to be forced to expand beyond its English/Spanish/French/Italian/Portuguese preferences and resort to using Cyrillic, South Asian, or Middle Eastern names (Ibrahim, Idris, Indira, Iosef, etc.) that all normally have a ton of I names
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#10 Postby zhukm29 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:07 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I'm starting to wonder if the WMO is going to be forced to expand beyond its English/Spanish/French/Italian/Portuguese preferences and resort to using Cyrillic, South Asian, or Middle Eastern names (Ibrahim, Idris, Indira, Iosef, etc.) that all normally have a ton of I names


Pick any year in the 21st century at random. Assuming Ian gets retired this year (which it looks like it will), you are just as likely to pick a year with an I storm retirement as you are to pick one without. Of the 22 years in this century, 11 of them featured an I storm that was retired, which is an incredible feat considering that less than 4 storms are typically retired each year. This also doesn't include notable storms like Isaac '12, Imelda '19, or Isaias '20 that had arguments for retirement but were simply outmatched by other storms during the season. If you consider Iota as an I storm (since this would be equivalent to retiring the I name on the auxiliary list if it were to happen again), then the chances of picking a season with an I retirement becomes greater than 50%. That's quite significant for a single letter on the naming list!

Essentially we're retiring one I name every two years at this rate, which is not sustainable for a letter that isn't as common as a first initial. So yes, assuming the I curse continues and we don't reuse names, we will have to look at more cultures and languages to get new names for future seasons (which I would argue isn't a bad thing).
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#11 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:56 am

I do think some people on this thread are being a bit premature in assuming that Ian will be retired -- let's wait a week and see what happens to see if this storm is really that destructive. If I remember correctly, forecasts as to intensity are less accurate than those about the track, so it might not end up being a Charley-level storm in Florida after all.

As for them having to go to names which aren't "English, French, or Spanish" -- as the world has developed since 1979, baby names just don't fit into neat linguistic categories any more. They replaced Ida with Imani. This is a name derived from Swahili, but it is entirely appropriate to use it because in the last few decades it has become quite common in the African-American community in the USA. The combination of immigration from places like Iraq and Afghanistan and the use of Muslim names in the African-American community means that a lot of the supposedly "foreign" names mentioned above are being regularly given to boys born in the USA.

The "I" names given to more than 100 boys born in the United States in 2021 include Ibrahim (663), Idris (271), Iker (613), Ilan (131), Immanuel (159), Imran (207), Ira (298), Isa (151), Isael (155), Isai (167), Ishaan (271), Ishmael (142), Izael (118), and Izan (162). No matter what their linguistic origin, these are all now "American" names which could be considered as replacements for Ian if one is needed, along with Irving and Iggy from past generations.
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#12 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:21 pm

Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:I do think some people on this thread are being a bit premature in assuming that Ian will be retired -- let's wait a week and see what happens to see if this storm is really that destructive. If I remember correctly, forecasts as to intensity are less accurate than those about the track, so it might not end up being a Charley-level storm in Florida after all.

As for them having to go to names which aren't "English, French, or Spanish" -- as the world has developed since 1979, baby names just don't fit into neat linguistic categories any more. They replaced Ida with Imani. This is a name derived from Swahili, but it is entirely appropriate to use it because in the last few decades it has become quite common in the African-American community in the USA. The combination of immigration from places like Iraq and Afghanistan and the use of Muslim names in the African-American community means that a lot of the supposedly "foreign" names mentioned above are being regularly given to boys born in the USA.

The "I" names given to more than 100 boys born in the United States in 2021 include Ibrahim (663), Idris (271), Iker (613), Ilan (131), Immanuel (159), Imran (207), Ira (298), Isa (151), Isael (155), Isai (167), Ishaan (271), Ishmael (142), Izael (118), and Izan (162). No matter what their linguistic origin, these are all now "American" names which could be considered as replacements for Ian if one is needed, along with Irving and Iggy from past generations.


Yeah I agree. For the same reason I don't like how the WMO refuses to extend the normal list to better reflect active seasons (i.e., 21 isn't as good a boundary anymore to differentiate between active and abnormal seasons) on the basis that there aren't any available names. The letter "X" I understand, but "Y" and "Z" are pretty much in the same category as "I" for the same reason as you mentioned above - I can easily come up with a rotating list of 6, with replacements to spare (especially since names that far in the list are rarely retired - since 1979, we've only had one "T" retirement and one "W" retirement from the back end of letters).
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#13 Postby REDHurricane » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:28 pm

zhukm29 wrote:
Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:I do think some people on this thread are being a bit premature in assuming that Ian will be retired -- let's wait a week and see what happens to see if this storm is really that destructive. If I remember correctly, forecasts as to intensity are less accurate than those about the track, so it might not end up being a Charley-level storm in Florida after all.

As for them having to go to names which aren't "English, French, or Spanish" -- as the world has developed since 1979, baby names just don't fit into neat linguistic categories any more. They replaced Ida with Imani. This is a name derived from Swahili, but it is entirely appropriate to use it because in the last few decades it has become quite common in the African-American community in the USA. The combination of immigration from places like Iraq and Afghanistan and the use of Muslim names in the African-American community means that a lot of the supposedly "foreign" names mentioned above are being regularly given to boys born in the USA.

The "I" names given to more than 100 boys born in the United States in 2021 include Ibrahim (663), Idris (271), Iker (613), Ilan (131), Immanuel (159), Imran (207), Ira (298), Isa (151), Isael (155), Isai (167), Ishaan (271), Ishmael (142), Izael (118), and Izan (162). No matter what their linguistic origin, these are all now "American" names which could be considered as replacements for Ian if one is needed, along with Irving and Iggy from past generations.


Yeah I agree. For the same reason I don't like how the WMO refuses to extend the normal list to better reflect active seasons (i.e., 21 isn't as good a boundary anymore to differentiate between active and abnormal seasons) on the basis that there aren't any available names. The letter "X" I understand, but "Y" and "Z" are pretty much in the same category as "I" for the same reason as you mentioned above - I can easily come up with a rotating list of 6, with replacements to spare (especially since names that far in the list are rarely retired - since 1979, we've only had one "T" retirement and one "W" retirement from the back end of letters).


Totally agreed, but I don't see why they can't also add "X" to the list -- like you said, the odds that any "X" storm gets retired are extremely low in the first place, and it can't be that hard to find at least 6+ boy/girl "X" names that are at least marginally common in the US/Canada/Mexico/Central America region.

Just at a quick glance, here is a list of names starting with "Q" "U" "X" "Y" and "Z" that could be usable for a while:

"Q" boys: Quentin, Quincy, Quinn, Quinton, Quan, Quinlan, Qasim, Quade
"Q" girls: Quincy, Quinn, Queen, Quinley, Queenie, Quetzali, Qamar

"U" boys: Ulysses, Uriel, Usman, Umar, Uri, Uriah, Urban, Ulrich
"U" girls: Uma, Ursula, Unity, Unique, Ulani, Umaiza, Una

"X" boys: Xavier, Xander, Xavian, Xaiden, Xavion, Xion, Xavi
"X" girls: Xena, Xenia, Ximena, Xiomara, Xochitl, Xyla, Xaria

"Y" boys: Yusuf, Yael, Yohan, Yuri, Yoel, Yahir, Yehuda, Yaakov
"Y" girls: Yasmin, Yolanda, Yesenia, Yara, Yvonne, Yaretzi, Yareli

"Z" boys: Zachary, Zane, Zeke, Zaire, Zayden, Zaid, Zakai, Zeus
"Z" girls: Zoe, Zara, Zuri, Zelda, Zainab, Zariah, Zendaya, Zayla

That's at least 7 boy/girl names for each of the letters not included in the WMO Atlantic name list, and I'm sure there are other good options as well. If the EPac can use every letter except "Q" and "U", why can't the Atlantic follow suit? Obviously this is something very inconsequential in the grand scheme of things, but it would be nice to see the WMO expand its horizons a little bit with regards to choosing future TC names in my opinion.
Last edited by REDHurricane on Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#14 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:30 pm

No curse. It’s a letter that typically will get reach somewhere near peak season. That’s your answer.
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#15 Postby SconnieCane » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:44 pm

The "I curse" definitely stands out the most; for some reason the next most common letters for "big ones" going back to the mid-'90s seem to be F and M.

Fran, Floyd, Francis, Florence, Fiona.

Marilyn, Mitch, Matthew, Maria, Michael.

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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#16 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:45 pm

toad strangler wrote:No curse. It’s a letter that typically will get reach somewhere near peak season. That’s your answer.


But so do H and J, but they are retired at half the rate as I does. And there have been seasons where the I name isn't reached during peak season and still causes problems, from Isaias in July to Iris in October (and even Iota in November if that counts). Yeah that should be the reasoning, but the fact that I gets hit more than its neighboring letters is the reason why the I "curse" exists in the first place.

With our better detection and less stringency in designating TCs, G-K should be in the firing zone every year when it comes to impactful storms (assuming I happens at the dead center of peak season, I'm using G-K since that adds two letters on either end). But G has been retired 5 times, H retired 6 times, J retired 5 times, K retired 3 times. On the other hand, I will likely be retired 13 times, which is more than double the highest of its surrounding letters. That's more than statistically significant, since I would expect these letters to be hit roughly equally if it's just that it happens during peak season.

Obviously this is just a coincidence that is mentioned every now and then (and playfully called a "curse"), since the I storm does happen during peak season most of the time - it's just the lopsidedness of I compared to other peak-season letters that brings about this idea. :D
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#17 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:53 pm

REDHurricane wrote:
zhukm29 wrote:
Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:I do think some people on this thread are being a bit premature in assuming that Ian will be retired -- let's wait a week and see what happens to see if this storm is really that destructive. If I remember correctly, forecasts as to intensity are less accurate than those about the track, so it might not end up being a Charley-level storm in Florida after all.

As for them having to go to names which aren't "English, French, or Spanish" -- as the world has developed since 1979, baby names just don't fit into neat linguistic categories any more. They replaced Ida with Imani. This is a name derived from Swahili, but it is entirely appropriate to use it because in the last few decades it has become quite common in the African-American community in the USA. The combination of immigration from places like Iraq and Afghanistan and the use of Muslim names in the African-American community means that a lot of the supposedly "foreign" names mentioned above are being regularly given to boys born in the USA.

The "I" names given to more than 100 boys born in the United States in 2021 include Ibrahim (663), Idris (271), Iker (613), Ilan (131), Immanuel (159), Imran (207), Ira (298), Isa (151), Isael (155), Isai (167), Ishaan (271), Ishmael (142), Izael (118), and Izan (162). No matter what their linguistic origin, these are all now "American" names which could be considered as replacements for Ian if one is needed, along with Irving and Iggy from past generations.


Yeah I agree. For the same reason I don't like how the WMO refuses to extend the normal list to better reflect active seasons (i.e., 21 isn't as good a boundary anymore to differentiate between active and abnormal seasons) on the basis that there aren't any available names. The letter "X" I understand, but "Y" and "Z" are pretty much in the same category as "I" for the same reason as you mentioned above - I can easily come up with a rotating list of 6, with replacements to spare (especially since names that far in the list are rarely retired - since 1979, we've only had one "T" retirement and one "W" retirement from the back end of letters).


Totally agreed, but I don't see why they can't also add "X" to the list -- like you said, the odds that any "X" storm gets retired are extremely low in the first place, and it can't be that hard to find at least 6+ boy/girl "X" names that are at least marginally common in the US/Canada/Mexico/Central America region.

Just at a quick glance, here is a list of names starting with "Q" "U" "X" "Y" and "Z" that could be usable for a while:

"Q" boys: Quentin, Quincy, Quinn, Quinton, Quan, Quinlan, Qasim, Quade
"Q" girls: Quincy, Quinn, Queen, Quinley, Queenie, Quetzali, Qamar

"U" boys: Ulysses, Uriel, Usman, Umar, Uri, Uriah, Urban, Ulrich
"U" girls: Uma, Ursula, Unity, Unique, Ulani, Umaiza, Una

"X" boys: Xavier, Xander, Xavian, Xaiden, Xavion, Xion, Xavi
"X" girls: Xena, Xenia, Ximena, Xiomara, Xochitl, Xyla, Xaria

"Y" boys: Yusuf, Yael, Yohan, Yuri, Yoel, Yahir, Yehuda, Yaakov
"Y" girls: Yasmin, Yolanda, Yesenia, Yara, Yvonne, Yaretzi, Yareli

"Z" boys: Zachary, Zane, Zeke, Zaire, Zayden, Zaid, Zakai, Zeus
"Z" girls: Zoe, Zara, Zuri, Zelda, Zainab, Zariah, Zendaya, Zayla

That's at least 7 boy/girl names for each of the letters not included in the WMO Atlantic name list, and I'm sure there are other good options as well. If the EPac can use every letter except "Q" and "U", why can't the Atlantic follow suit? Obviously this is something very inconsequential in the grand scheme of things, but it would be nice to see the WMO expand its horizons a little bit with regards to choosing future TC names in my opinion.


That's a nice list, wished you got a say at the WMO! The only risky one would probably be "Q" since it happens early enough in the alphabet that there is a risk that it might be retired frequently.

If the WMO doesn't want to use up too many names, I don't see why they can't just use Xinia/Yariel/Zoe for the NATL. The EPAC isn't ever going to reach names 46-48 on its auxiliary list anyway, considering the record is 39 tropical storms in the WPAC, which runs year round. Doing a two-year rotation like the EPAC would work well too, since 2022 has shown that running the list for the third year in a row is quite tough, even if conditions are supposed to be favorable.
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Re: Why does the

#18 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:50 pm

SconnieCane wrote:The "I curse" definitely stands out the most; for some reason the next most common letters for "big ones" going back to the mid-'90s seem to be F and M.

Fran, Floyd, Francis, Florence, Fiona.

Marilyn, Mitch, Matthew, Maria, Michael.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk


And "F" is probably the second most difficult letter to find replacements for within the first half of the alphabet after I. (Little problem with finding "M" names, of course.)
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#19 Postby FireRat » Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:03 am

The I curse is certainly one of the most crazy coincidences I've witnessed over the years! Way more impactful than the #8 and #10 tropical systems...

It gets me thinking, perhaps there really is something about the #9 from a more esoteric point of view. In the old practice of Numerology, the number 9 is regarded as meaning the end of a cycle, which often leads to destruction of some type. Sure not scientific, but a fun explanation for the I curse.

Interestingly enough, in Numerology, there are other 'curses' out there involving Tropical Cyclones. The biggest one I know is something we can call the '25 Curse'.

Many, too many perhaps, of the most monstrous Tropical Cyclones around the world have bombed out on dates that either add up to 25, or contain the #25 in the day number.
Many of these went on to cause epic destruction on the same dates.

Another weird coincidence up there with the I-curse, sure makes life more interesting in an odd way :)
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Re: Why does the "I curse" exist?

#20 Postby zhukm29 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:17 am

FireRat wrote:The I curse is certainly one of the most crazy coincidences I've witnessed over the years! Way more impactful than the #8 and #10 tropical systems...

It gets me thinking, perhaps there really is something about the #9 from a more esoteric point of view. In the old practice of Numerology, the number 9 is regarded as meaning the end of a cycle, which often leads to destruction of some type. Sure not scientific, but a fun explanation for the I curse.

Interestingly enough, in Numerology, there are other 'curses' out there involving Tropical Cyclones. The biggest one I know is something we can call the '25 Curse'.

Many, too many perhaps, of the most monstrous Tropical Cyclones around the world have bombed out on dates that either add up to 25, or contain the #25 in the day number.
Many of these went on to cause epic destruction on the same dates.

Another weird coincidence up there with the I-curse, sure makes life more interesting in an odd way :)


Speaking of the number 9, you know what else is cursed? 10L, but this time on the other side of the spectrum. A system designated 10L has never made it to major since Fabian in 2003 despite being a number that is typically assigned during peak season (and most 10Ls ended up as tropical storms). 10L has also been assigned to the most unnamed depressions as well this century (2004, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2017, 2020, and almost 2021 until that ASCAT pass made it over Kate). 2022 can add to that pattern as well, with Hermine being a shorty 40mph tropical storm that lasted a day.

Oh, and you know what? In 2017, 10L could have redeemed itself with Irma, the 10th tropical cyclone of the season. But 2017 was also the year they introduced PTCs, and you know what was assigned 10L? The infamous PTC 10, which became the first to fail to develop with a PTC label. Much like how 09Ls often overperform, 10Ls are often doomed to fail.

Thinking of it, if depressions were named as well, then the letter "J" would have been straddled with a bunch of weak systems over the past few years, quite opposite to the letter "I".

Just another coincidence to tie in with the "I" curse - the tropics sure have many weird patterns. :D
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