2022 Post-Season Changes

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ElectricStorm
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2022 Post-Season Changes

#1 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:45 pm

With the ongoing discussion about Ian's peak I thought it would be good to have a spot for discussion about any changes you think may happen in the final post-season reports. Also this doesn't have to just be for Atlantic storms. I'll start:

Atlantic:
Colin: Genesis moved up a bit, formed over water instead of land
Danielle: I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight bump from 80kts to 85kts, was looking really good for a while and a bump to Cat 2 seems reasonable to me.
Ian: I think it's definitely possible it was a Cat 5 but I'm not sure NHC will upgrade. Very borderline case. I do think they might bump the Cuba landfall up to 115kts/Cat 4 though.

EPAC:
Agatha: Slight chance they bump it up to 100kts/Cat 3 I think that's unlikely.
Kay: Recon absolutely did not support a Cat 2 when it was in there, I think we could see a downgrade to Cat 1 here. 85kts at the most IMO

WPAC:
Nanmadol: Surprised JTWC didn't upgrade it operationally, but I'm thinking this gets bumped up to 140kts/Cat 5 in the final BT.

I'm sure I'm probably missing some so this list will likely be added to at some point.
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Re: 2022 Post-Season Changes

#2 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:53 pm

Gaston might have been a hurricane.

Earl and Fiona have arguments to bump up their peak intensity by 5 kt, to 95 and 120 respectively. Earl's intensity before the peak may need to be lowered a bit, though.

TD11 likely formed way earlier than today.

How many invests might have been brief TDs or eve TSes? I lost count.
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Re: 2022 Post-Season Changes

#3 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:01 pm

Was there any solid evidence of a core pressure lower than 930 mbar for Ian? Typically I've noticed that unless it's a storm like Matthew (which I can see being downgraded in the far future) or Edith, then a Cat 5 Ian wouldn't look as likely (rather, a 155 mph with a pressure in the 930s would be recorded).
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Re: 2022 Post-Season Changes

#4 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:02 pm

Teban54 wrote:Gaston might have been a hurricane.

Earl and Fiona have arguments to bump up their peak intensity by 5 kt, to 95 and 120 respectively. Earl's intensity before the peak may need to be lowered a bit, though.

TD11 likely formed way earlier than today.

How many invests might have been brief TDs or eve TSes? I lost count.

There was one in May IIRC. The ones I remember the most were the first August western Gulf Invest (probably just a TD at landfall) and Invest 95L earlier this month in the MDR. That one hit 45 kt on the Best Track, so if it gets a post-season upgrade, it’ll be the first unnamed Atlantic TS since 2013.

Ian has a decent shot of a Cat 5 upgrade, but not at landfall. 130 kt/940 mbar looks spot-on. FL/SFMR was much higher between 10-12z this morning (160 kt peak FL, 137-140 kt peak valid SFMR), but I think the high central pressure, interaction with the trough, and possible shoaling effects on SFMR were why the NHC didn’t upgrade Ian to a Cat 5. Trough interactions can significantly pump up FL winds but reduce the conversion factor; Sam and Isaias’ second peaks are good examples.
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Re: 2022 Post-Season Changes

#5 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:00 pm

Changes I'd like to see made in postseason reviews:

Northern Hemisphere
• North Atlantic
Colin...genesis a bit earlier
Danielle...80 kt --> 85 kt
Earl...90 kt --> 95 kt
Fiona...115 kt --> 120 kt
Gaston...55 kt --> 60 kt
Ian...135 kt --> 140 kt
----
• Eastern Pacific
Agatha...Landfall winds upgraded to 95 kt (since Agatha could have strengthened a bit after the recon left)
Celia...55 kt --> 65 kt
Bonnie...1st peak: 100 kt --> 85 kt (Due to very poor MW structure;the centre was almost exposed) and 2nd peak: 80 kt --> 95 kt
Darby...1st peak: 120 kt --> 130 kt (the estimate of 120 kt for that satellite presentation likely was low, so 130 kt could be an reasonable estimate to me) and 2nd peak: 100 kt --> 110 kt
Kay...90 kt --> 85 kt
----
• Western Pacific
Trases...30 kt --> 40 kt (based on Ascat)
Ma-on...60 kt --> 70 kt
Tokage...100 kt --> 110 kt
Hinnamnor...140 kt --> 150 kt
Nanmadol...135 kt --> 145 kt
Noru...140 kt --> 155 kt
°°°°°°
°°°°°°
Southern Hemisphere
• SWIO
Jasmine...55 kt --> 65 kt
Karim...60 kt --> 70 kt
---
• AUS Region
Seth...55 kt --> 65 kt
Vernon...115 kt --> 125 kt
Anika...55 kt --> 65 kt (based on sub-980 hPa readings during landfall)
Billy...60 kt --> 70 kt (Microwave showed an defined and closed eyewall)
Charlotte...90 kt --> 115 kt (it showed an strong pinhole eye at peak intensity)
---
• SPAC
Cody...50 kt --> 70 kt (it showed an obvious eye on visible imagery)
Dovi...80 kt --> 95 kt
Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2022 Post-Season Changes

#6 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:24 pm

I'm guessing this will be the thread for the TCRs when they finally get published.

Actually surprised that there are no reports released yet. Usually, the first report comes out by now.
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Re: 2022 Post-Season Changes

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:37 pm

galaxy401 wrote:I'm guessing this will be the thread for the TCRs when they finally get published.

Actually surprised that there are no reports released yet. Usually, the first report comes out by now.


I made that thread on August 31rst thinking they would begin to release from early September.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p2984263
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