Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR? (It was)

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Will Ian be upgraded to Cat 5?

Poll ended at Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:50 pm

Yes
42
55%
No
34
45%
 
Total votes: 76

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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#21 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:34 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
NotoSans wrote:Michael got upgraded because subjective analysis of radar velocities using GBVTD technique yielded 145kt, SFMR was at 152kt (which NHC explicitly said can be questionable), and a pressure of 919mb yielded 140kt using KZC.

Two of the three elements is missing is Ian's case, including SMFR being lower at 137kt, and pressure significantly higher at ~935mb. The key would be radar velocities, but mesovortices were very active in Ian's eyewall, so a single frame cannot be used to estimate the intensity (NHC usually did a 4-bin average). My personal take is that 135kt is a good compromise / blend of all the available data, so I would lean towards no upgrade.


There was a lot of radar data that showed velocities above 180 mph around 11K to 8K feet up.


That is still a borderline case at most. The actual height of the velocity data, how long the winds sustain, etc. are all relevant to intensity estimates.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#22 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:20 pm

No upgrade

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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#23 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:37 pm

There is also the data from the P-3's tail doppler radar which I have seen some folks on wxtwitter try to analyse as well as the Altius drone launched into the eye. The twitter video from Nick where the plane dropped over 1000 ft was from the mission where they launched the drone and I don't think I have seen anyone discuss or analyse that yet on twitter which makes me wonder if it is not yet fully available. It was also the first mission for Altius so going to be very interesting to see what they got from it.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/altius-drone-flies-hurricane-ian/

At less than 2300 feet above the sea surface the UAS recorded winds over 187 kts (216 mph), and at one point even descended to as low as 200 feet.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#24 Postby Nuno » Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:26 am

aspen wrote:I’m leaning towards no upgrade even though I think Ian was briefly a 5 this morning, because the NHC has been very hesitant to call anything a Cat 5 since Iota’s TCR. They don’t extrapolate intensification trends that much (lowering Eta and Sam’s peak pressures by 1-2mb despite evidence they probably dropped further) nor put much weight into a handful of borderline Cat 4/5 SFMR readings like when they downgraded Iota. The latter is probably due to Matthew, which is just begging to be downgraded to 130-135 kt any day now. However, unlike every other storm I mentioned, Ian has plenty of radar data for re-analysis, and it could be enough for an upgrade. Still not counting on it.


What is the meteorological or even philosophical rationale for this? The storm is over, there is no public panic. Why be hesitant to upgrade a storm if the data supports it? Duration should be irrelevant, if it was a Cat. 5 for one advisory window then it was a Cat. 5? We know what to look for in a SFMR reading to avoid another Matthew situation.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#25 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:20 am

Nuno wrote:
aspen wrote:I’m leaning towards no upgrade even though I think Ian was briefly a 5 this morning, because the NHC has been very hesitant to call anything a Cat 5 since Iota’s TCR. They don’t extrapolate intensification trends that much (lowering Eta and Sam’s peak pressures by 1-2mb despite evidence they probably dropped further) nor put much weight into a handful of borderline Cat 4/5 SFMR readings like when they downgraded Iota. The latter is probably due to Matthew, which is just begging to be downgraded to 130-135 kt any day now. However, unlike every other storm I mentioned, Ian has plenty of radar data for re-analysis, and it could be enough for an upgrade. Still not counting on it.


What is the meteorological or even philosophical rationale for this? The storm is over, there is no public panic. Why be hesitant to upgrade a storm if the data supports it? Duration should be irrelevant, if it was a Cat. 5 for one advisory window then it was a Cat. 5? We know what to look for in a SFMR reading to avoid another Matthew situation.


I would THINK that a thorough storm damage assessment will be a large part of determination.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#26 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:48 am

I think it’s reasonable to think it was briefly a 160 mph Cat 5 prior to weakening to 145-150 at landfall. The flight level winds make me lean on that direction. Though it’s definitely a borderline case which I wouldn’t blame the NHC if they left it at 155 mph peak.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#27 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:56 am

No strong evidence of surface winds at Cat 5 level. Converting radar velocities aloft down to the surface is not reliable. Neither are SFMR winds at those speeds. Cat 4 at landfall, and it may have weakened a little just before the eye moved into the coast.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pm

If radar velocities being converted to the surface aren’t reliable, that’s the first I’ve heard of it.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#29 Postby J_J99 » Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:No strong evidence of surface winds at Cat 5 level. Converting radar velocities aloft down to the surface is not reliable. Neither are SFMR winds at those speeds. Cat 4 at landfall, and it may have weakened a little just before the eye moved into the coast.


Peaked as a 5 offshore (140-145 kts) and made landfall as a 4 (125-130 kts) is my opinion.

160 kt FL Winds at 750 mb supports 138 kts when blended, dropsondes showed incredibly efficient mixing was happening, and this is in conjunction with considering radar velocities and appearance of the storm continued up trending after the limited recon passes (which understandably aborted the mission) all lead to strong category 5 evidence.

Also, the radar velocities comment is moot when you consider the National Hurricane Center upgraded both Zeta(to a cat 3) and Michael(to a cat 5) in the post season primarily from radar velocity evidence. If NHC considers that reliable in determining surface wind speeds, I am inclined to agree with them.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#30 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:01 pm

Nuno wrote:
aspen wrote:I’m leaning towards no upgrade even though I think Ian was briefly a 5 this morning, because the NHC has been very hesitant to call anything a Cat 5 since Iota’s TCR. They don’t extrapolate intensification trends that much (lowering Eta and Sam’s peak pressures by 1-2mb despite evidence they probably dropped further) nor put much weight into a handful of borderline Cat 4/5 SFMR readings like when they downgraded Iota. The latter is probably due to Matthew, which is just begging to be downgraded to 130-135 kt any day now. However, unlike every other storm I mentioned, Ian has plenty of radar data for re-analysis, and it could be enough for an upgrade. Still not counting on it.


What is the meteorological or even philosophical rationale for this? The storm is over, there is no public panic. Why be hesitant to upgrade a storm if the data supports it? Duration should be irrelevant, if it was a Cat. 5 for one advisory window then it was a Cat. 5? We know what to look for in a SFMR reading to avoid another Matthew situation.


Duration is important because best tracks are aimed at smoothing the intensity curve, not recording the slightest bit of fluctuation in intensity. Eyewalls of intense hurricanes are famous for hosting a bunch of mesovortices, but these transient features are often not considered representative of the overall circulation.

That is why radar velocities should be used with caution. What NHC does is to smooth out transient features and arrive at a figure that best represents the overall circulation.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#31 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:45 pm

NotoSans wrote:
Nuno wrote:
aspen wrote:I’m leaning towards no upgrade even though I think Ian was briefly a 5 this morning, because the NHC has been very hesitant to call anything a Cat 5 since Iota’s TCR. They don’t extrapolate intensification trends that much (lowering Eta and Sam’s peak pressures by 1-2mb despite evidence they probably dropped further) nor put much weight into a handful of borderline Cat 4/5 SFMR readings like when they downgraded Iota. The latter is probably due to Matthew, which is just begging to be downgraded to 130-135 kt any day now. However, unlike every other storm I mentioned, Ian has plenty of radar data for re-analysis, and it could be enough for an upgrade. Still not counting on it.


What is the meteorological or even philosophical rationale for this? The storm is over, there is no public panic. Why be hesitant to upgrade a storm if the data supports it? Duration should be irrelevant, if it was a Cat. 5 for one advisory window then it was a Cat. 5? We know what to look for in a SFMR reading to avoid another Matthew situation.


Duration is important because best tracks are aimed at smoothing the intensity curve, not recording the slightest bit of fluctuation in intensity. Eyewalls of intense hurricanes are famous for hosting a bunch of mesovortices, but these transient features are often not considered representative of the overall circulation.

That is why radar velocities should be used with caution. What NHC does is to smooth out transient features and arrive at a figure that best represents the overall circulation.

This brings up something I’ve often wondered about. How frequently reoccurring does something need to be to go from transient to representative. For instance, I remember when Laura made landfall in Puerto Rico, we were all watching a transient vortex make landfall that had stronger winds than the parent circulation at that time, wondering if that would take over. After a few hours it died out, confirming it’s transience. On the other hand, eyewall mesovorts seem to blur the line. If one particularly strong one rotates through and shoots the velocities up for a few minutes, and no subsequent ones match it, that seems transient to me. But several hours of these absurd readings showing up every frame or two seems more like an eyewall characteristic to me.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#32 Postby Ed_2001 » Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:14 pm

Yes for peak right before landfall based on radar velocity and recon data (as already stated here many times), but leaning towards no for landfall intensity both due to slight decrease in radar velocity and warming of the CDO on IR/dvorak estimates.

And Imo very subjectively speaking the wind damage (vegetation and structural, as the latter might be biased due to difference in building codes over time period/differing regions of the state) from Ian doesn't look as severe as Andrew, Michael, or even Charley, though the storm surge definitely blows those three out of the water.

In any case, I trust the experts at NHC to make a good final assessment, and both 135kt or 140 peak seems reasonable enough. Landfall intensity is probably closer to 120-125kt.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#33 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 03, 2023 8:29 am

Looks like the answer is indeed yes
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?

#34 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 03, 2023 8:51 am

I knew Ian would be upgraded, he was like Michael in 2018 except Ian weakened just before Landfall. He had the strongest case since Michael 2018.
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