Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands (Is invest 92L)

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aspen
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#21 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:36 pm

Teban54 wrote:Less activity than I expected here given it's rarity. Guess people are burnt out after Ian?

Operational models keep it weak, but there are many ensemble members showing strong hurricanes. As for track, there's a general agreement of moving NW/NNW, then turned W due to a ridge, and finally recurving once it reaches central or even western subtropical Atlantic. If it survives when turning W, ensembles suggest it will have a good chance of intensifying.

I guess the lack of super strong operational model runs is part of the reason this isn’t getting tons of attention. Also burnout after a devastating 70+ ACE September following a ridiculously quiet first half of the season.

If this was mid August or early September, it would probably get more hype because the environment would be more favorable for a northern MDR/subtropic long-tracker. As is, it’s still possible to get a nice high-ACE fish out of this, but it’s not super likely right now.
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#22 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:47 pm

0z GFS weaker, now not even getting below 1000 mb.

I do think it may be tied to GFS's east bias. If the system tracks further west, not only will it have warmer waters before recurving, but it increases the chance of survival into the subtropics in the long term.
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#23 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:40 am

Seems like this will probably just been a slightly further west version of Hermine. Ridging in that part of the basin is so incredibly weak this year.
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#24 Postby Nuno » Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:13 am

aspen wrote:Seems like this will probably just been a slightly further west version of Hermine. Ridging in that part of the basin is so incredibly weak this year.


It is weaker but it is also expected given climatology in early October.
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#25 Postby ouragans » Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:04 pm

800 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.
The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward
or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#26 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:47 am

Orange now.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.
Further development will become less likely by the end of the week
due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to move
westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of the
week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#27 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:12 am

06z GFS gets a good amount of ACE out of this in the central Atlantic subtropics. First the system will head north, then nearly due west before finally recurving a few days later. Most models don’t show it surviving long enough to make it into the subtropics and recurve as a TC, but if it does, maybe we could get a 10+ ACE low-end hurricane out of it.
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#28 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:45 am

Now at 50/70%
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