Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands (Is invest 92L)

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MarioProtVI
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Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands (Is invest 92L)

#1 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:31 am

 https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1575482601271599104




Julia could be our next major. Very weird it’s happening this late given both GFS and EURO have shown development of this wave, with both making it a hurricane. Probably 0/20 at 2pm given the uptick.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#2 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:50 am

EURO trend:

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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#3 Postby Abdullah » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:13 pm

GFS Ensemble Members 9/29 12Z Forecast for the next seven days:

Image

WNW to NW motion
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:21 pm

Abdullah wrote:GFS Ensemble Members 9/29 12Z Forecast for the next seven days:

https://i.imgur.com/1fspSJ3.gif

WNW to NW motion


I am watching those ahead.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#5 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:03 pm

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system
through early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward
into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#6 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:41 pm

Usually at this point, the door closes for the Cape Verde region. But with how backloaded this season is, I figure that region will still be active.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#7 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:11 pm

That's a pretty weird track...
Image
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#8 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:22 pm

Teban54 wrote:That's a pretty weird track...
https://i.postimg.cc/m2p5mVB7/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh3-240.gif


Kind of like what Irma did....except in October :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#9 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:38 pm

Typical model biases are in full effect here. The GFS has this AOI recurve very early and impact the Cape Verde islands, while the CMC and Euro get it a lot further west before recurving.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#10 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:50 pm

aspen wrote:Typical model biases are in full effect here. The GFS has this AOI recurve very early and impact the Cape Verde islands, while the CMC and Euro get it a lot further west before recurving.

Glad we're finally back to the simple times when Euro is to the west of GFS!
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:53 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgrade Hurricane Ian, located offshore of the northeast Florida
coast.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for gradual development and a tropical
depression could form early next week as the system moves westward
to west-northwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Bucci
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#12 Postby mantis83 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:02 pm

thankfully this has fish written all over it....
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#13 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgrade Hurricane Ian, located offshore of the northeast Florida
coast.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for gradual development and a tropical
depression could form early next week as the system moves westward
to west-northwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Bucci


Well that is escalating quickly. Maybe my number of 6 in September will be right after all. :D
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#14 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:26 pm

We've got an Orange Julia Julius out there.

(Who remembers that drink? :lol: )
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#15 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:13 pm

[imgur]w[/imgur]
AnnularCane wrote:We've got an Orange Julia Julius out there.

(Who remembers that drink? :lol: )

Omg i loved those lolol now i want one
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#16 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:36 am

Image

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms off the west coast of
Africa is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week as the system moves westward
to west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:56 am

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the
system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#18 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:28 pm

Less activity than I expected here given it's rarity. Guess people are burnt out after Ian?

Operational models keep it weak, but there are many ensemble members showing strong hurricanes. As for track, there's a general agreement of moving NW/NNW, then turned W due to a ridge, and finally recurving once it reaches central or even western subtropical Atlantic. If it survives when turning W, ensembles suggest it will have a good chance of intensifying.
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:45 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Ian, located inland over the Carolinas.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the early part of
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands

#20 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Ian, located inland over the Carolinas.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the early part of
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Long range Code Red, it would be wild to have a October MDR system!
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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