Seasons That Didn't Get 10 Storms Before October 1 But Still Ended With 15 Or More - Will 2022 Join Them?

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Ryxn
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Seasons That Didn't Get 10 Storms Before October 1 But Still Ended With 15 Or More - Will 2022 Join Them?

#1 Postby Ryxn » Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:39 am

This has only happened TWICE in history since 1851.

1950 & 2001

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1950_At ... ane_season
For the case of the more impressive of the two, 1950, it ended September only reaching George on the naming list (Storm #7) but more than doubled its storm count and ended with an above average 16 tropical storms and featured a record 8 in October.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_At ... ane_season
2001 ended September with Humberto (NS #8) but managed to produce another 7 more for an above average 15 storm total.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_At ... ane_season
2022 has so far produced 9 tropical storms. It should be at 11 climatelogically through September 30. However, it has a chance to join these 2 elite years thanks to the failure of Tropical Depression Eleven. Early October is looking to be active. I can definitely see October having 4-6 named storms. Then I see post-October having 2-3 named storms. So the total for the year could fall in the range of 15-18 named storms which would be a respectable season.

.......and just for some perspective. Weak or inactive seasons like 2013 and 2015 STILL had their J storm (10th) form before October 1. Let that just sink in.

Any thoughts?
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: Seasons That Didn't Get 10 Storms Before October 1 But Still Ended With 15 Or More - Will 2022 Join Them?

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:30 am

If there's one thing I've learned from my time tracking since 2017, it's that every season is very unique in many regards and never will have a close historical comparison year.

While it's tempting to think that this year's slow start could prevent it from attaining at least 15 NSs and that historically it's rare, it does not mean it cannot happen. And with what looks to be a month-delayed but not denied season, I'm sure on the boat that it's indeed probable that we'll end with 15 or maybe slightly more NSs by December 31.
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