Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#61 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:16 pm

Squadron with this.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 11.6N 54.5W FOR 04/1800Z
7 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3078
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#62 Postby chris_fit » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:16 pm

:eek:


Image
2 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#63 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:20 pm

chris_fit wrote::eek:


Image

Was about to post that, GEFS continues to show an uptick in activity. If 12Z EPS confirms the trend then we got another one potentially to look out for.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
3 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#64 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:30 pm

The series of NHC climo maps showing the history of tracks for ten day genesis periods going back to 1851 is often a good tool to keep in the back of one's mind to try to help in forecasting discussions like this.

The link below is to geneses during OCT 1-10, which would more than likely be the period to cover this one should it form. It suggests that the best chances to form would be either early (mainly between 50W and the LAs) or later in the Caribbean west of 70W (assuming it gets there).

Since that link goes only to 2015, I'll point out that a whopping four TCs had genesis during OCT 1-10 in the W Caribbean just since then:

-Nate of 2017
-Michael of 2018
-Delta and Gamma of 2020

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3078
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#65 Postby chris_fit » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:34 pm

Here's the 10 day - Not interested in what comes after this time frame. Will compare to Euro EPS in a few hours.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#66 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:43 pm

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east
of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of the wave is
possible during the next few days while it moves generally westward
at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern
Caribbean Sea by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#67 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:49 pm

12Z GFS ensembles, many turn north in the NW Caribbean and these look like hurricanes. Time for an invest tag:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#68 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:53 pm

This initialization :lol: :lol: :lol:

Image
Image
2 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#69 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:57 pm



Very accurate indeed. Looks like King Euro is on target here with no formation! :)
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

MarioProtVI
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 663
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#70 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:59 pm

CMC apparently wants an Iota 2020/Felix 2007 repeat (967 on this res is usually like 30-40 mb above reality)

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#71 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:15 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:


Very accurate indeed. Looks like King Euro is on target here with no formation! :)


 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1576636376224710656


1 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3078
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#72 Postby chris_fit » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:21 pm

Nadda really on the 12Z ECMF through 120hrs.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#73 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:34 pm

Trinidad & Tobago NWS.

Image
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#74 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:36 pm

The wave has health convection and is starting to roll up and organise. Using snow/ice band it see the movement in the lower (white) and upper (gray) layers.

Source - https://col.st/9hrQi

5 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#75 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:41 pm

ChrisH-UK wrote:The wave has health convection and is starting to roll up and organise. Using snow/ice band it see the movement in the lower (white) and upper (gray) layers.

Source - https://col.st/9hrQi

https://imgur.com/LmYskdV


There's no denying this is probably one of the healthiest waves that this season has featured so far, especially in the MDR. I personally think this will become a TC.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#76 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:52 pm

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#77 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:57 pm

chris_fit wrote:Here's the 10 day - Not interested in what comes after this time frame. Will compare to Euro EPS in a few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/ZpYE5r3.png

It’s remarkable how stark of a contrast there is between the OP and ensemble models, especially the usually WCar tigger-happy GFS. I’m guessing that a combo of poor initialization and interaction with phantom Caribbean vorticity are some of the reasons why the GFS hasn’t shown anything.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6771
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: RE: Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#78 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:09 pm

aspen wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Here's the 10 day - Not interested in what comes after this time frame. Will compare to Euro EPS in a few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/ZpYE5r3.png

It’s remarkable how stark of a contrast there is between the OP and ensemble models, especially the usually WCar tigger-happy GFS. I’m guessing that a combo of poor initialization and interaction with phantom Caribbean vorticity are some of the reasons why the GFS hasn’t shown anything.
We saw it with ian and fiona too, early on, its expected.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#79 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:09 pm

This is very likely another sleeper wave that we managed to spot that the Models want to have none of it!
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5523
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#80 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:10 pm

12z GEPS/CMCE shows a very similar signal to the GEFS
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ljmac75, TheWisestofAll, ToneLoc and 68 guests