Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

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Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#1 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 09, 2022 12:26 pm

Kind of like storms like the 1932 Cuba hurricane, Hattie, Mitch, Lenny, Michelle, Wilma, Paloma, Eta, or Iota? Do you think 2022 will feature that kind of post-October 15 monster?
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#2 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 09, 2022 1:03 pm

No. Near 0 chance.

Hurricane Martin will be a powerful category 5 hurricane that will destroy New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane becoming the most damaging hurricane since Katrina '04
Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#3 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 09, 2022 1:14 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:No. Near 0 chance.

Hurricane Karl will be a powerful category 5 hurricane that will destroy New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane becoming the most damaging hurricane since Katrina '05


I can see what you're doing here . . .
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#4 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 09, 2022 1:19 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:No. Near 0 chance.

Hurricane Karl will be a powerful category 5 hurricane that will destroy New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane becoming the most damaging hurricane since Katrina '05


I can see what you're doing here . . .


:?:
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#5 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 09, 2022 2:57 pm

I'd bet on one more major.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#6 Postby REDHurricane » Sun Oct 09, 2022 3:26 pm

CFS long range model has been signaling indications of something brewing up in the Caribbean/Gulf during early to mid-November since the beginning of the season, albeit a somewhat weak signal. But given that things are likely to be quiet throughout at least the next two weeks or so and I don't think the Atlantic is quite done yet in 2022, I'd guess that if another major hurricane does occur it will probably form somewhere in the second or third week of November
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#7 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Oct 09, 2022 4:37 pm

REDHurricane wrote:CFS long range model has been signaling indications of something brewing up in the Caribbean/Gulf during early to mid-November since the beginning of the season, albeit a somewhat weak signal. But given that things are likely to be quiet throughout at least the next two weeks or so and I don't think the Atlantic is quite done yet in 2022, I'd guess that if another major hurricane does occur it will probably form somewhere in the second or third week of November

Getting a major in November is rare enough so I think the window is fast closing on any more majors. Maybe one more near the end part of this month but that’s it.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#8 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 09, 2022 5:22 pm

Related to this but perhaps a more important question: will there be another impactful hurricane in the western basin?

Looking beyond the reliable period for models, 10+ days out or October 19th+ **for TC genesis** and considering just the period since 1995, nearly half the seasons still had significant land impacts in the western basin not yet forecastable as of today's date:

- 2020: MHs Zeta, Eta, and Iota

- 2016: MH Otto

- 2012: MH Sandy

- 2010: H Tomas

- 2009: H Ida

- 2008: MH Paloma

- 2007: H Noel

- 2005: MH Beta

- 2001: MH Michelle

- 1999: MH Lenny

- 1998: MH Mitch

 Of these: 2020, 16, 10, 08, 07, 05, 99, and 98 were during oncoming or current La Nina. That's 8 of these seasons out of a total of 12  of these since 1995. So, 2/3 of these seasons. 

 So, imo, based on the above, we have at the very least a 50% shot at one more impactful H in the western basin.

Edit: If we were in El Niño, I'd likely be predicting no more impactful canes because only 1 of 8 since 1995 had another impactful cane from an Oct 19+ genesis.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#9 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 09, 2022 7:37 pm

Good question....it may sound cliche, but I suppose anything is possible tropically, I mean, if the right ingredients come together, it's possible I suppose...
Last edited by underthwx on Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#10 Postby REDHurricane » Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:43 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
REDHurricane wrote:CFS long range model has been signaling indications of something brewing up in the Caribbean/Gulf during early to mid-November since the beginning of the season, albeit a somewhat weak signal. But given that things are likely to be quiet throughout at least the next two weeks or so and I don't think the Atlantic is quite done yet in 2022, I'd guess that if another major hurricane does occur it will probably form somewhere in the second or third week of November

Getting a major in November is rare enough so I think the window is fast closing on any more majors. Maybe one more near the end part of this month but that’s it.


Yeah I tend to agree, but it's possible that the strong La Niña will continue to favor a backloaded season as we have seen so far. A fair amount of people here this year have commented that the typical progression of conditions in the Atlantic almost appears to be delayed by a month (no named storms in August, peak activity occurring around September 20 as opposed to August 20, etc.) so although I wouldn't necessarily bet on another major hurricane happening this season, it definitely wouldn't surprise me if one unexpectedly develops around early/mid-November even if the rest of October doesn't end up producing anything substantial.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#11 Postby zal0phus » Mon Oct 10, 2022 12:26 pm

I'm inclined to believe the season is probably over with at this point. But if we do get a powerful late-season hurricane, I don't think the season will hold back at all. Something akin to a slightly weaker Mitch, perhaps named Lisa or Martin or Nicole.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#12 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:17 pm

I would not be surprised if we see a Category 4 or 5 hurricane by November 30.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#13 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:28 am

After Karl, it seems the GOM & Caribbean will be done through October per latest modeling and big canes in Nov pretty rare. Maybe 1-2 weak hybrid type storms left in open Atlantic. JMHO
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#14 Postby Buck » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:26 pm

I'd bet on another 1-2 hurricanes, maybe 1 being a major.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#15 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 13, 2022 3:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:After Karl, it seems the GOM & Caribbean will be done through October per latest modeling and big canes in Nov pretty rare. Maybe 1-2 weak hybrid type storms left in open Atlantic. JMHO


Indeed, MH are pretty rare in November. However, since 1999, there have been in the Caribbean six (Iota, Eta, Otto, Paloma, Lenny, and Michelle) with five during the 11 La Nina seasons since then. So, with GW, +AMO, and La Nina, it wouldn't at all be a surprise if there is a MH that has genesis in the Caribbean this November though I'm not predicting one. Is that ever predictable?
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#16 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 13, 2022 3:34 pm

Followup to the above post about November MHs to show how much the warmer globe has influenced the late season:

- MH in November 1999-2021: 6 (Iota, Eta, Otto, Paloma, Michelle, Lenny) or an average of one for every 4 seasons
- MH in November 1950-1998: 1 (Kate) or only one out of 39 seasons

Edit:
- MH in November 1900-1949: 3 (1934, 1932, and 1912) or an average of one every 17 seasons
- MH in November 1851-1899: 0

So, a total of 10 MH in November since 1851, with six of those 10 just since 1999.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:11 pm

LarryWx wrote:Followup to the above post about November MHs to show how much the warmer globe has influenced the late season:

- MH in November 1999-2021: 6 (Iota, Eta, Otto, Paloma, Michelle, Lenny) or an average of one for every 4 seasons
- MH in November 1950-1998: 1 (Kate) or only one out of 39 seasons

Edit:
- MH in November 1900-1949: 3 (1934, 1932, and 1912) or an average of one every 17 seasons
- MH in November 1851-1899: 0

So, a total of 10 MH in November since 1851, with six of those 10 just since 1999.


That truly makes the 1932 hurricane something extraordinary, considering it was at a time when November majors were rare - and it very well could have had a sub-900 pressure.
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#18 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:44 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:No. Near 0 chance.

Hurricane Karl will be a powerful category 5 hurricane that will destroy New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane becoming the most damaging hurricane since Katrina '05


I can see what you're doing here . . .


:?:


Why has New Orleans been the consistent city to be "destroyed" here? We've had 2 majors in 2 years, give it to someone else.

A2K
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Re: Do you think this season will feature a late-season Cat 4 or 5 hurricane?

#19 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:12 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
I can see what you're doing here . . .


:?:


Why has New Orleans been the consistent city to be "destroyed" here? We've had 2 majors in 2 years, give it to someone else.

A2K


...It is because the scenario described there is hypothetical, as the current environment in the Gulf of Mexico would hardly support a (major) hurricane, Category 2 or 3, so a Category 4/5 is... :lol:
Consequently, New Orleans would likely be safe against hurricanes of the aforementioned intensities. Grateful.
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