Disturbed Weather near the Yucatan (Is invest 93L)

[tropicwatch]

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located to the north of Tropical Storm
Julia is forecast to move westward toward the far southwest Gulf of
Mexico during the next day or two. Some slight development of this
system is possible by mid-week if the disturbance remains over
water. Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over
portions of southern Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[StAuggy]

I see the lemon. Just curious if this is a piece of Julia that split off. Surprised to see no discussion yet.

[chris_fit]

Don't see any model support for this lemon.

[ChrisH-UK]

The models are showing part of Julia reforming in the Bay of Campeche so this might be related to that.

GFS

ECMWF

[underthwx]

Whatever it is, moves west into Mexico?

[tropicwatch]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some development of
this system is possible on Tuesday and Wednesday when the system
moves slowly west-northwestard to northwestward over the far
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Increasing upper-level winds should
prevent significant development late this week. Regardless of
development, heavy rain is expected over portions of southern
Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$

Forecaster Blake

[MGC]

Got some mid level spin down there....shear looks a bit strong though.....MGC

[tropicwatch]

I think the remnants of Julia this disturbance might become one and the same. The HMON and AVNO like the idea

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_118.gif

[wxman57]

Anything in the BoC absolutely cannot track northward. VERY strong west-east upper flow is dipping southward over the next couple of days, all the way to the BoC. 20% chance of development is about 19.99% too high.

[MarioProtVI]

Anything in the BoC absolutely cannot track northward. VERY strong west-east upper flow is dipping southward over the next couple of days, all the way to the BoC. 20% chance of development is about 19.99% too high.

EURO, CMC and ICON all develop it and recurve it back south into Mexico. On satellite it looks very good right now with great outflow - but I think it’s partially from Julia’s remnant MLC but also from the ULAC - and has persistent central deep convection. NHC is in the right here and I’d personally put chances at 30/30 or 40/40 at 8pm

[tropicwatch]

Anything in the BoC absolutely cannot track northward. VERY strong west-east upper flow is dipping southward over the next couple of days, all the way to the BoC. 20% chance of development is about 19.99% too high.

Apparently the NHC doesn't agree. They up the chances to 30/30

[Sciencerocks]

Since this is part of Julia trough would it keep its name if it redevelops into tropical storm?

[Sciencerocks]

Since this is part of Julia trough would it keep its name if it redevelops into tropical storm?

Imagine if the southern part of Julia redevelops in the eastern Pacific in 36 hours and this BOC system develops from the northern portion...How many systems can this be?

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1579650677323706369

[tropicwatch]

Even with a sheared environment, it is doing pretty good building some high cloud tops.

[StAuggy]

Since this is part of Julia trough would it keep its name if it redevelops into tropical storm?

Papin says no it’ll be a new system

[mantis83]

Anything in the BoC absolutely cannot track northward. VERY strong west-east upper flow is dipping southward over the next couple of days, all the way to the BoC. 20% chance of development is about 19.99% too high.

EURO, CMC and ICON all develop it and recurve it back south into Mexico. On satellite it looks very good right now with great outflow - but I think it’s partially from Julia’s remnant MLC but also from the ULAC - and has persistent central deep convection. NHC is in the right here and I’d personally put chances at 30/30 or 40/40 at 8pm

yup, nhc is the best in the business hands down...

[ElectricStorm]

1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over southeastern Mexico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche
and adjacent land areas. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this
morning. Environmental conditions are expected to conducive for
some development, and a tropical depression could from within the
next day or two while the system meanders over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. After that time, increasing upper-level winds are
likely to hinder additional development. Regardless of formation,
heavy rainfall is expected over portions of southern Mexico during
the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Sciencerocks]