How is it possible for storms that look very good on satellite to be weaker under the hood?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

How is it possible for storms that look very good on satellite to be weaker under the hood?

#1 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:39 am

So this is a question I recently came up with after seeing how many were talking about it, especially with storms like PTC4, Eta, or Elsa at multiple points in time; I remember how those storms looked very good on satellite causing people to believe they were quite strong when in reality, looking under the hood, scientists did not find as strong of a system.

But this got me wondering: why does this happen? Why do some storms look very good from above when they are much more disorganized or weaker below? What is it about these kinds of systems that make them able to mask their true level of organization?
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: How is it possible for storms that look very good on satellite to be weaker under the hood?

#2 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:17 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:So this is a question I recently came up with after seeing how many were talking about it, especially with storms like PTC4, Eta, or Elsa at multiple points in time; I remember how those storms looked very good on satellite causing people to believe they were quite strong when in reality, looking under the hood, scientists did not find as strong of a system.

But this got me wondering: why does this happen? Why do some storms look very good from above when they are much more disorganized or weaker below? What is it about these kinds of systems that make them able to mask their true level of organization?


Hidden Multiple LLCs? That was the case for Julia despite an impressive CDO.

The reverse of this can also happen, one very strong case for a weak-looking storm only to be found stronger was Ian.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19140
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: How is it possible for storms that look very good on satellite to be weaker under the hood?

#3 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:55 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:So this is a question I recently came up with after seeing how many were talking about it, especially with storms like PTC4, Eta, or Elsa at multiple points in time; I remember how those storms looked very good on satellite causing people to believe they were quite strong when in reality, looking under the hood, scientists did not find as strong of a system.

But this got me wondering: why does this happen? Why do some storms look very good from above when they are much more disorganized or weaker below? What is it about these kinds of systems that make them able to mask their true level of organization?


For hurricanes, there is a significant issue with cat 5 storms being expected rather than rare, which they are. Eta was an extremely strong and dangerous category 4 storm, yet there's a number of people who aren't happy unless every 4 is raised to a 5 because it 'looked good'. Elsa and PTC4 never looked good. :)
3 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: How is it possible for storms that look very good on satellite to be weaker under the hood?

#4 Postby AJC3 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:30 pm

An excellent read which discusses the variance in TC intensties when compared with Dvorak estimates.
7 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cycloneye, wxman57 and 55 guests