Tropical Wave Southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands

[galaxy401]

Cape Verde season might not be over yet. Don't know about the model support though.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the south of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5-10 mph over the tropical Atlantic through
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Category5Kaiju]

Cape Verde season might not be over yet. Don't know about the model support though.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the south of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5-10 mph over the tropical Atlantic through
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Considering Fiona and Karl occurred (and none of them were "shorties"), there seems to be a recurring theme this season where the models don't see development until merely days out. Not sure exactly why the models haven't been doing well long-range with some of these systems this year, but given the models' tendencies this year, I wouldn't be surprised if this system becomes a NS despite little model support currently.

[ThunderForce]

There seems to be some model support for this on the 06Z GEFS ensembles with a few showing development into a tropical storm or hurricane after about a week or so. The 00Z EPS ensembles don't seem to show much development beyond possibly a tropical depression, but the signal is there.

Both GEFS and EPS seem to have it taking a general westward to west-northwestward motion like the NHC's yellow cone shows.

[ChrisH-UK]

The 18z GFS has a 90 knot hurricane out of it. Take it with a large shovel of salt though but it shows potential.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slow development during the next few days while
the system moves westward and then west-northwestward at about 10
mph. However, the disturbance is expected to move into a less
favorable area of stronger upper-level winds on Sunday or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some gradual development during the next
few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
about 10 mph. By early next week, environmental conditions are
forecast to become less favorable as the disturbance is expected to
move into an area of stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is not anticipated while
the wave moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.