Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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GCANE
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/60)

#101 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 28, 2022 6:04 am

Wave SE of PR showing constant firing convection and increasing LL vorticity on CIMSS.
Driven by a strong shear gradient.
Majority of the convection is in a dropping shear area.
GFS initialization is not capturing this.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/60)

#102 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 28, 2022 6:15 am

UL Trough is currently north of Hispaniola.
Forecast to dissipate by Sunday.
Will set up a low shear environment across the Carib then.
GFS showing a LL vort developing south of Hispaniola at that time.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/60)

#103 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 28, 2022 6:28 am

GCANE wrote:UL Trough is currently north of Hispaniola.
Forecast to dissipate by Sunday.
Will set up a low shear environment across the Carib then.
GFS showing a LL vort developing south of Hispaniola at that time.


I see that, you are pretty good and consistent at picking up on this type of pattern over the years. A few of the ensembles continue to show a very powerful hurricane bouncing around in the Caribbean and then getting pulled out into W Atlantic.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/60)

#104 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 28, 2022 6:52 am

Image
00z CMC
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (20/70)

#105 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:18 am

Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward for several
hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

#106 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:31 am

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