Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#81 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 27, 2022 4:41 am

Currently vorticity with this system and the one north of Puerto Rico is pretty pitiful.
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#82 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 27, 2022 8:04 am

Successive runs of GFS are developing a well-defined ARWB when the surface low is located near Jamaica.
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#83 Postby WiscoWx02 » Thu Oct 27, 2022 8:18 am

Models have pretty much jumped ship on this becoming anything more than a tropical storm…doesn’t mean much, and I’m not going to take it as gospel but it’s a good sign for folks in Central America in terms of wind impacts…flooding…unfortunately still will be a big threat no matter what.
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#84 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2022 8:24 am

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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#85 Postby jconsor » Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:14 am

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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#86 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:32 am

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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#87 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:54 am

TCPOD for Saturday and Sunday.

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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#88 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 27, 2022 11:24 am

The GFS has been trending weaker with a more gyre-like setup dominating the Caribbean. 12z GFS is little more than a strong blob of vorticity being thrown around inside a gigantic area of rotation. The system gets thrown all the way up into the Greater Antilles before it really has a chance to consolidate much, then rapidly SW into Central America. In contrast, the CMC/Euro don’t show this gyre setup and instead have this take an Ian/Julia like track through the Caribbean, staying mostly W/WNW before going into CA.

Edit: nvm, 12z CMC goes NW into Cuba.
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#89 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 27, 2022 12:37 pm

aspen wrote:The GFS has been trending weaker with a more gyre-like setup dominating the Caribbean. 12z GFS is little more than a strong blob of vorticity being thrown around inside a gigantic area of rotation. The system gets thrown all the way up into the Greater Antilles before it really has a chance to consolidate much, then rapidly SW into Central America. In contrast, the CMC/Euro don’t show this gyre setup and instead have this take an Ian/Julia like track through the Caribbean, staying mostly W/WNW before going into CA.

Edit: nvm, 12z CMC goes NW into Cuba.


So, after pretty much being on its own having had nearly a week's worth of runs showing almost all hurricanes at peak in the E or C Caribbean, the 12Z GFS has just a TD to possibly low end TS from this on the entire run! That's pretty bad imho though it was fortunately pretty predictable due to doing this kind of thing on its own at times in the past. And now this run could turn out to be too weak!
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#90 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 27, 2022 2:13 pm

I doubt that there will be anything for recon to fly into this weekend. Perhaps as it nears Central America next Wednesday. GFS should never be trusted beyond 3-5 days. It’s coming around to the EC and ICON solutions of a weak low now.
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#91 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 27, 2022 3:39 pm

All the 12z model runs show this making a semicircle in the Caribbean, heading north into or near Jamaica and (except the CMC) turning SW into Central America. The GFS and Euro significantly weaken it after Jamaica.
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#92 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 27, 2022 5:25 pm

The Happy Hour GFS more than likely is not even showing a TD with at most a weak TD for a short period.
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#93 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:33 pm

Hmm, I have a question: I wonder why GFS is not so enthusiastic anymore with this system all of a sudden. What is it seeing that makes it change its mind all of a sudden? Isn't there supposed to be a predicted anticyclone over that region which would be favorable for any impulses to develop into a storm? Yaakov Cantor and Mark Sudduth at least seem to believe the overall setup may matter more than model intricacies considering how models this year just have not been doing exactly great with cyclogenesis
Last edited by Category5Kaiju on Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#94 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:35 pm

Looks like wxman nailed it. Weak low, nothing but some rain. Still problematic in its own right, obviously.
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#95 Postby Jr0d » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:40 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Hmm, wonder why GFS is not so enthusiastic anymore with this system all of a sudden. Isn't there supposed to be a predicted anticyclone over that region which would be favorable for any impulses to develop into a storm? Yaakov Cantor and Mark Sudduth at least seem to believe the overall setup may matter more than model intricacies considering how models this year just have not been doing exactly great with cyclogenesis


This far out i look at the ensembles vs the operational run. Plenty of members are showing a low end hurricane.

Until we have something to track, this is all gues work.

November storms are in my opinion more difficult to forecast. Climatology is weak and favors a weaker system but that is still guess work.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/50)

#96 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:50 pm

8 PM.

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion
of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form early next week while the
disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward over the
central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: Possible Development in the East-Central Caribbean (0/50)

#97 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:54 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Hmm, I have a question: I wonder why GFS is not so enthusiastic anymore with this system all of a sudden. What is it seeing that makes it change its mind all of a sudden? Isn't there supposed to be a predicted anticyclone over that region which would be favorable for any impulses to develop into a storm? Yaakov Cantor and Mark Sudduth at least seem to believe the overall setup may matter more than model intricacies considering how models this year just have not been doing exactly great with cyclogenesis


The GFS is not so enthusiastic anymore because it previously was showing fake hurricanes pretty much all by itself for nearly a week due to it having a tendency to be too genesis happy. It is a very flawed model. The E Caribbean stuff, especially, was nonsense. Now that we got closer in forecast time, it pretty much corrected itself much closer to reality like normally happens with models. Did it go too far meaning it ends up being more than a very weak TD? Maybe or maybe not.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/50)

#98 Postby WiscoWx02 » Thu Oct 27, 2022 7:53 pm

Wxman usually nails it head on....I doubt this develops anymore, environment no longer looks favorable out ahead of it. Was probably our last chance at something this season.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/60)

#99 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 28, 2022 1:12 am

2. Eastern Caribbean:

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/60)

#100 Postby MarioProtVI » Fri Oct 28, 2022 2:18 am

AJC3 wrote:
2. Eastern Caribbean:

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Not sure why chances were raised. If anything should’ve been lowered to 0/50 or 0/40 given significantly less enthusiasm from models.
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