Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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LarryWx
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#21 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:19 am

cycloneye wrote:This is wave 48 around 36W that looks to be the trigger for any development further west.

https://i.imgur.com/aMIpI42.gif


I have a lot of doubt that the GFS, ICON, and CMC are actually developing the same wave. What do others think?

Based on what it has done many times in the recent past (~25 runs in a row in mid May in the W Car for example that turned out to be nothing), I still think the GFS is drunk with its E Car TCG into a H while still in the E Car. I'm also considering climo as well as the Euro and UKMET not having an E Car TCG. Looking closely at the 0Z UKMET maps, all it has is a very weak low (1012 mb) at the ABC Islands (12N, 69W) at hour 84 (a far different scenario vs the GFS) that then moves westward with no TCG into the far SW Car. It finally develops some in the far SW Car while still moving westward and ends up at 1007 mb at hour 168 near 11N, 82W (150 miles E of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border).

I'm still sticking with a C or W Car TCG, if there is any, by early to mid next week and expect no more than a weak low in the E Car moving westward in the southern portion just N of SA preceding that possibility later this week.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#22 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:51 am

Development is slower this run due to flow from a mid-level trough to the system’s north, comparable to the shear Fiona imparted on pre-Ian in the same location. This trough moves out by days 6-7 and the system is able to strengthen.

Then the GFS smokes some crack and has it go ENE/NE while still in the Caribbean.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:02 pm

Like Klaus 1984 but much stronger.

Image
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#24 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:06 pm

Image

12z GFS plows PR this time…
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#25 Postby blp » Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:39 pm

12z GEFS with a much weaker signal. It look like the party is starting wind down for the GFS. Future runs should be weaker and further west closer to central America.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:45 pm

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea
by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward or
west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#27 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:47 pm

12z CMC and ICON look like a Bonnie or Julia repeat, with development not occurring until it pulls away from Colombia.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#28 Postby CourierPR » Tue Oct 25, 2022 1:09 pm

blp wrote:12z GEFS with a much weaker signal. It look like the party is starting wind down for the GFS. Future runs should be weaker and further west closer to central America.


Based on what?
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2022 1:33 pm

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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2022 1:50 pm

Good news from Tropical Tidbits regarding the model plots.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1584979197055094784


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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#31 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 25, 2022 2:02 pm

Image
12z CMC/GEM
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#32 Postby MetroMike » Tue Oct 25, 2022 2:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:Good news from Tropical Tidbits regarding the model plots.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1584979197055094784


Finally he lets us know what is going on, had to email him earlier.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#33 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 25, 2022 2:38 pm

blp wrote:12z GEFS with a much weaker signal. It look like the party is starting wind down for the GFS. Future runs should be weaker and further west closer to central America.


Agreed. Also, the 12Z Euro and UKMET continue with no TCG at all. However, they both have weak lows in the SW Car day 6+ that will need to be watched for potential TCG due to more favorable conditions, considering what the 12Z CMC and ICON as well as yesterday's 12Z JMA show, noting that climo favors that area over all others, La Nina climo, and recent decades of increased activity late in the season:

Oct 21-31 geneses: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_21_31.png

Nov 1-10 geneses: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_1_10.png
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#34 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Oct 25, 2022 2:54 pm

I’m thinking yet another Julia or Bonnie like system. Columbia interaction halts development early on preventing much strengthening once it gets into the Caribbean. Tropical storm intensity on this is the ceiling Imo as of right now.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#35 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Oct 25, 2022 3:07 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:I’m thinking yet another Julia or Bonnie like system. Columbia interaction halts development early on preventing much strengthening once it gets into the Caribbean. Tropical storm intensity on this is the ceiling Imo as of right now.


Personally I think it's too early to make that kind of call, especially given how late October and November climatology heavily favor northward curving systems in the Caribbean.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#36 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 25, 2022 3:13 pm

Image
12z GEFS

Image
12z ECENS
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#37 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 25, 2022 3:24 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:I’m thinking yet another Julia or Bonnie like system. Columbia interaction halts development early on preventing much strengthening once it gets into the Caribbean. Tropical storm intensity on this is the ceiling Imo as of right now.


Personally I think it's too early to make that kind of call, especially given how late October and November climatology heavily favor northward curving systems in the Caribbean.


Indeed, though a few have gone west, the 10 day climo maps show favor to NW to NE headings from the SW Caribbean for that period. I think that's partially because many of them slow down there enough to develop and then many of them turn more northward. Though not a good model at all, the 12Z CFS actually has a TC form near there and then turn north into the FL panhandle ahead of a front on day 11 (~Nov 4-5).

Two examples of ones that formed in the SW Caribbean in very early Nov: Ida of 2009 and Paloma of 2008, both of which moved north from there.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#38 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 25, 2022 3:25 pm

Weak low into Central America looks most likely. No, it’s not to early to say that. We have clients that need 7-10 day outlooks for tropical waves. We can’t wait until a hurricane forms.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#39 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 25, 2022 3:29 pm



This shows a sig uptick in the W Car on the 12Z EPS vs 0Z.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#40 Postby JuracánBori » Tue Oct 25, 2022 4:09 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/jChnbLR.gif

12z GFS plows PR this time…

Lenny 1999? Is that you?!
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