Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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cycloneye
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Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2022 6:54 am

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea
by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward or
west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#2 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:08 am

The GFS and CMC couldn’t be more different when it comes to genesis. On the GFS, the precursor disturbance kinda gets stuck in the E Car and pulled up north. On the CMC, the disturbance keeps moving on a track between that of Julia and Ian, and develops much further west than the GFS but still around the same time (between Saturday and Monday). The ICON is far weaker than both the GFS and CMC — no big surprise there — but has a more CMC/Julia-like track. I’m leaning towards the CMC/ICON solution because the overall setup is similar to that of Ian and Julia, both of which formed near the middle parts of the Caribbean and were steered W to WNW/NW.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#3 Postby kevin » Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:10 am

If we're to believe the GFS (which is a big if) this could be a big one. Considering the time of year it might be one of the last chances this season for such a 'big one'. CMC also shows a significant hurricane. On the other hand many other models are either weaker (ICON) or don't really show development at all (ECMWF).
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#4 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:24 am

The most likely solution is no development at all, or a weak low.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#5 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:34 am

06z GFS continues to show a hurricane, hits Hispaniola before going OTS on the 06z GFS (tropicaltidbits appears to not be running GFS data at the moment). CMC also shows a hurricane, so this signal is real.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#6 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:36 am

Lol I love it no euro support I guess the nhc thinks the gfs is into to something. Regardless no way it threatens the conus gulf or Florida shear is ripping. I can see a Paloma type though.
Last edited by SFLcane on Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:41 am

This is wave 48 around 36W that looks to be the trigger for any development further west.

Image
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#8 Postby Teban54 » Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:45 am

cycloneye wrote:This is wave 48 around 36W that looks to be the trigger for any development further west.

https://i.imgur.com/aMIpI42.gif

Is it just me, or does it already look pretty good?
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#9 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:19 am

Teban54 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:This is wave 48 around 36W that looks to be the trigger for any development further west.

https://i.imgur.com/aMIpI42.gif

Is it just me, or does it already look pretty good?


Looks good on MIMIC-TPW
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#10 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:22 am

Looks like its closed off on the CIMSS vort maps to 700mb.
Pretty dang good for being south of 10N
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#11 Postby MetroMike » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:24 am

GCANE wrote:Looks like its closed off on the CIMSS vort maps to 700mb.
Pretty dang good for being south of 10N


Tbh it does look like a sheared mess imo.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:25 am

Closer look at the circulation.

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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#13 Postby stormchazer » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:26 am

Teban54 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:This is wave 48 around 36W that looks to be the trigger for any development further west.

https://i.imgur.com/aMIpI42.gif

Is it just me, or does it already look pretty good?


Looks good in the low to mid-levels but the upper level flow looks like fairly strong westerlies, atleast tell it gets into Western Caribbean.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#14 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:42 am

A closed off naked swirl.
Current GFS has it as a wave.
Further runs could adjust the track with a more north component.
Looks like it'll be on the SW side of a UL Trough when it hits the islands Friday.
Good setup for a spinup.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#15 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:02 am

GCANE wrote:A closed off naked swirl.
Current GFS has it as a wave.
Further runs could adjust the track with a more north component.
Looks like it'll be on the SW side of a UL Trough when it hits the islands Friday.
Good setup for a spinup.

Probably is still just a wave imo. In cycloneye’s gif above I see 2 eddies, I bet much like proto-Julia that there isn’t much of a surface reflection of either yet
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#16 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:19 am

Not so naked anymore.
Convection firing over it.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#17 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:29 am

GCANE wrote:Not so naked anymore.
Convection firing over it.


Image
As expected for Nov, no clear climatology paths, but it seems a system that develops/deepens will get pulled N out of Caribbean and pinball all over. Does seem there could be some blocking back to the W IF there is a hurricane N of @25N.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#18 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:30 am

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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#19 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:44 am

Image
Some support from ECENS showing a weak low into CA.
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Re: Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (0/20)

#20 Postby Poonwalker » Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:06 am

GFS shows a 919MB cat 5 hitting Jamaica end of next week
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