Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[GCANE]

Nice pressure drop on the east Carib Buoy
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=AST

[cane5]

Can someone please give update on the ICON MODEL ???

[cane5]

I'd really love to hear what wxman57 thinks about this storm so far. The fact that both GFS and CMC are anticipating a hurricane really concerns me.

Ok Waxy come out of hiding lay it on us….

[Blown Away]

[GCANE]

Can someone please give update on the ICON MODEL ???

Makes a landfall around JAX.
Kinda hard to believe due to the strong Rossby Wave in the vicinity then.
GFS is good at forecasting UL synoptic patterns.
I am going with the S FL landfall as advertised by GFS.

[Blown Away]

Can someone please give update on the ICON MODEL ???

12z Icon

[fci]

A couple of these runs are showing a boomerang like return to the peninsula after initial passage. Real strong ridging keeps it S and then quickly slips out to bring it back. Crazy.

These radical moves are late season weird dynamics that can occur
Wilma boomeranged after crossing the Yucatan which was perfectly forecasted.
Wrong-way Lenny....

[gatorcane]

Active 12Z Euro ensembles with most tracking Southern Florida with a WSW dip.

[GCANE]

Strengthening infeed from the EPAC and MDR ITCZ

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[Blown Away]

Active 12Z Euro ensembles with most tracking Southern Florida with a WSW dip.

12z ECENS… Most active run so far…

[fci]

I'd really love to hear what wxman57 thinks about this storm so far. The fact that both GFS and CMC are anticipating a hurricane really concerns me.

Ok Waxy come out of hiding lay it on us….

Here was the post he had last night (#54)

First of all, I would not believe the GFS runs. Euro looks more realistic. What that means for south Florida is a non-event. Maybe some north wind 15-20 mph and less than 1/2 inch of rain. I think that winds of 35-45 mph will develop over the offshore waters along the coast from Jacksonville, FL to the Outer Banks. This will happen regardless of whether or not the NHC names the low. The wind will be produced by the gradient between this low (maybe 1008mb) and a 1040mb+ high over SE Canada.

I think that the NHC will up there "development" (really, naming) chances to 80-90% over the weekend. Whether the low is named or not, the impacts will be the same. Plenty of wind shear and cool, dry air flowing off the SE U.S. coast will prevent any significant strengthening of this non-tropical low. Wind will not penetrate much inland from the beaches. Most rain will be offshore. Wind slowly decreasing on Wednesday as the low weakens.

[toad strangler]

I'd really love to hear what wxman57 thinks about this storm so far. The fact that both GFS and CMC are anticipating a hurricane really concerns me.

Ok Waxy come out of hiding lay it on us….

Post 54 in this thread yesterday were his latest thoughts that I saw.

[jlauderdal]

I'd really love to hear what wxman57 thinks about this storm so far. The fact that both GFS and CMC are anticipating a hurricane really concerns me.

He was rather bearish yesterday.

[gatorcane]

Upper-level winds don’t looks too bad on the latest Euro with anticyclonic flow over the low while in the vicinity of Florida:

[AutoPenalti]

I'd really love to hear what wxman57 thinks about this storm so far. The fact that both GFS and CMC are anticipating a hurricane really concerns me.

He was rather bearish yesterday.

When isn’t he bearish

I can agree with his forecast, light breeze for south florida, a complete non-event for everybody in the east coast. If he doesn’t trust the GFS in any run, then I would agree with him.

[jlauderdal]

I'd really love to hear what wxman57 thinks about this storm so far. The fact that both GFS and CMC are anticipating a hurricane really concerns me.

He was rather bearish yesterday.

When isn’t he bearish

I can agree with his forecast, light breeze for south florida, a complete non-event for everybody in the east coast. If he doesn’t trust the GFS in any run, then I would agree with him.

I was bearish yesterday, today im mid range ts

[zzzh]

Shear is expected to be at ~10kt before reaching Florida. Unusual setup for November.

[gatorcane]

ICON coming in stronger, approaching Florida east coast at 993MB as opposed to 1001MB on the 12Z (108 hours).

5 day run below:

[AtlanticWind]

I'd really love to hear what wxman57 thinks about this storm so far. The fact that both GFS and CMC are anticipating a hurricane really concerns me.

He was rather bearish yesterday.

When isn’t he bearish

I can agree with his forecast, light breeze for south florida, a complete non-event for everybody in the east coast. If he doesn’t trust the GFS in any run, then I would agree with him.

I dont think this being a non event is very likely now,
Think we are looking at at least a mid range TS to a Cat 1 hurrricane
With S Fla looking like ground zero at this point.
Things could change but at this point some impact looks likely.

[tolakram]

18Z ICON