Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#261 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 05, 2022 6:53 pm

850mb vorticity on the increase near Puerto Rico now:

Image
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#262 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 05, 2022 6:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:850mb vorticity on the increase near Puerto Rico now:

https://i.postimg.cc/FsWzZ2H5/wg8vor.gif


50/80% and no Invest tag, IMO still much uncertainty if and where a LLC will form. The vorticity map finally showing hints.
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#263 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:03 pm

A radar loop form Puerto Rico the motions of the radar it looks like the center might of passed over Puerto Rico.
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#264 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:09 pm

The models are making me think this is gonna be a weird mashup of Kate 1985 and 2015 (both November hurricanes) but with more 1985-ness to it, especially if it emerges into the Gulf and hooks back just like 1985 did.
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#265 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:19 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:The models are making me think this is gonna be a weird mashup of Kate 1985 and 2015 (both November hurricanes) but with more 1985-ness to it, especially if it emerges into the Gulf and hooks back just like 1985 did.


Agree, we should expect the unexpected and November usually delivers when given the chance. :D
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#266 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:27 pm

18z Euro trending stronger.

Image
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#267 Postby cane5 » Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:36 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:The models are making me think this is gonna be a weird mashup of Kate 1985 and 2015 (both November hurricanes) but with more 1985-ness to it, especially if it emerges into the Gulf and hooks back just like 1985 did.


Or hooks back like WILMA 8-)
Wilma was a mid Oct storm very odd.
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#268 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:39 pm

NDG wrote:18z Euro trending stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/rYrmF9t.png


About same position as 18z GFS when it turned NNW.
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#269 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:40 pm

It's understandable to see many folks here trying to make comparisons with this future system and past historical systems, but something tells me that this system that we're about to see is about to occur in some rather unseasonally favorable conditions that would probably cause it to behave like no other storm we've seen before, at least in November. Who knows if this future system becomes some kind of "November boogeyman" that trackers in future seasons are going to reference? :lol:

It's just a hot take, I know.
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#270 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:05 pm

Blown Away wrote:
NDG wrote:18z Euro trending stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/rYrmF9t.png


About same position as 18z GFS when it turned NNW.


Is actually further SW than what the 18z GFS has it for the same time.
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#271 Postby tolakram » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:10 pm

Gets pretty far north before coming back

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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#272 Postby tolakram » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:13 pm

18Z Euro
Image
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#273 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:19 pm

Blown Away wrote:
NDG wrote:18z Euro trending stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/rYrmF9t.png


About same position as 18z GFS when it turned NNW.


Looks like it would head west into South Florida with that ridge if the run went out farther:

Image
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#274 Postby cane5 » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:27 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
NDG wrote:18z Euro trending stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/rYrmF9t.png


About same position as 18z GFS when it turned NNW.


Looks like it would head west into South Florida with that ridge if the run went out farther:

https://i.postimg.cc/wBSq1mQ7/ecmwf-z500-mslp-watl-fh0-90.gif


Do we have a timeframe ? okay
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#275 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:33 pm

cane5 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
About same position as 18z GFS when it turned NNW.


Looks like it would head west into South Florida with that ridge if the run went out farther:

https://i.postimg.cc/wBSq1mQ7/ecmwf-z500-mslp-watl-fh0-90.gif


Do we have a timeframe ? okay


Image

18z Euro ends at 90 hrs… Based on current model info a FL impact would be in the 4-5 range…
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#276 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:35 pm

Pretty clear on the WV loop, the developing storm is going to pivot counter-clockwise around that ULL to the WNW centered over the SE Bahamas, so will move NNE for now then N then eventually NW and then W or WSW.

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#277 Postby blp » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:39 pm

Here is another view of the 18z Euro


Image
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#278 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:01 pm

Image

Hints of a very broad rotation in the area of DR/PR…
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#279 Postby zzzh » Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:07 pm

Image
Dry air seems like the biggest inhibitor.
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Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#280 Postby IsabelaWeather » Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:13 pm




Yeah, pressure at my house is currently 1008.4mb which is lower than I ever see w/o a storm around. I was hoping that mid level swirl would go up the mona passage and throw up some storms here, but it we just east of me and dragged all of the rain out quickly. Super interesting right now that its drizzling.

EDIT: Also noteworthy that after the vort passed by the winds picked up very dramatically. having gusts in the low 30s right now, though its on the decrease now
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