Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#281 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:43 pm

Almost all of the 18z GFS ensembles had the system landfalling in Florida unlike the operational
0 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3437
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#282 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:20 pm

GFS brings its pretty close to SFL before riding the coast just offshore. Kinda like Isaias.




LImage
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#283 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:29 pm

0z ICON trending stronger.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#284 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:02 pm

Strongest run yet by the GFS before getting close to FL.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#285 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:04 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#286 Postby blp » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:06 pm

Oh boy!

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4156
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#287 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:07 pm

I think it is past time to declare this an invest… we need to see what the HWRF and HMON are going to do with this thing. I had to check the calendar to make sure it isn’t September.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#288 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:09 pm

Image

00z GFS… Much stronger, 969 mb at FL landfall…
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#289 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:12 pm

Image

00z GFS… Landfall in FL, Cat 2/3… :eek:
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#290 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:12 pm

This is not what we wanted tonight, models trending stronger, tomorrow people are going to go nuts when it hits the news.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#291 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:12 pm

I'm surprised this isn't 98L yet. It feels like this could be one of those really, really weird systems.
4 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas Early Next Week (50/80)

#292 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:15 pm

:double:
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#293 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm surprised this isn't 98L yet. It feels like this could be one of those really, really weird systems.


00z GFS says landfall Thursday.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#294 Postby AJC3 » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm surprised this isn't 98L yet. It feels like this could be one of those really, really weird systems.


Yup...in other words, a typical November TC. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#295 Postby blp » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:25 pm

CMC big trend west and south with landfall closer to Daytona now.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#296 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:26 pm

2022 to peninsular Florida after nearly 2 decades of escaping major hurricane landfalls

Image
5 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#297 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:28 pm

blp wrote:CMC big trend west and south with landfall closer to Daytona now.

https://i.ibb.co/QFbd7XW/gem-z850-vort-seus-fh120-trend.gif


Image

00z CMC… SW shift
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#298 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:29 pm

Well that GFS run has my attention... :P
2 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3946
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#299 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:34 pm

There’s a slight chance this pulls a hard right last second.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (50/80)

#300 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:35 pm

Image

00z ICON… W shift, landfall SC
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: WAcyclone, Zonacane and 61 guests