Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:47 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the weekend
across the southwestern tropical Atlantic or the eastern Caribbean.
low development of the system is possible as it moves generally
northward this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#2 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:12 pm

GFS has this as a solid warm-core, not sub-tropical.

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gf ... 2/153.html
0 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#3 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:13 pm

Is this the one the GFS has been showing moving near FL?
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#4 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:14 pm

GCANE wrote:GFS has this as a solid warm-core, not sub-tropical.

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gf ... 2/153.html


UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM as well
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#5 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:14 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Is this the one the GFS has been showing moving near FL?


Yes
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#6 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:24 pm

Apparently, this is coming from a cut-off UL low forming north of Hispaniola and working itself down to the surface.
A rather rare occurrence.
However, having multi global models confirming development is hard to argue to the contrary.
2 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#7 Postby AJC3 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 2:29 pm

GCANE wrote:Apparently, this is coming from a cut-off UL low forming north of Hispaniola and working itself down to the surface.
A rather rare occurrence.
However, having multi global models confirming development is hard to argue to the contrary.


Indeed. It was impressive to see that Monday's global models were pretty much identical with the 500MB pattern 4 days out. It's not a matter of IF a low will form, it's more an issue of exactly when and where, and whether it actually does fully transition to a relatively deeper emedded warm core low.
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:13 pm

8 PM TWO.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in a few days
near the Greater Antilles or over the southwestern Atlantic.
Slow development of the system is possible thereafter while it
moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#9 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:22 pm

Image
18z GEFS
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#10 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:33 pm

If we do in fact get formation out of this (I'm 50/50 at the moment) it looks like it'll be one of the more 'oddball' type tracks that November is somewhat famous for
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4665
Age: 63
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#11 Postby chaser1 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:20 pm

Could be a solid coastal mucker with a good deal of surf & tidal beach erosion; maybe with a dolup of coastal flooding north of center. I just want to see it come into phase with another sharp shortwave and pull in another shot of cooler air for us Floridians
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#12 Postby AJC3 » Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:09 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022

Southwestern Atlantic:
A broad and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop in a
few days near the Greater Antilles or over the southwestern Atlantic.
Some gradual tropical or subtropical development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves generally northward to northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:48 am

Southwestern Atlantic:
A complex, broad area of low pressure is expected to develop this
weekend near the Greater Antilles or over the southwestern
Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical development of this
system is possible afterward while it moves generally northward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#14 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:17 am

One heck of a strong ridge for this time of the year will position over the NE to push whatever forms east of FL to push it west towards the eastern US, not what FL east coast beaches need right now, more beach erosion.

Image
1 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1665
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#15 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Nov 02, 2022 12:09 pm

12z gfs is having a hard time getting this consolidated, but the 12z CMC shows a strong Tropical Storm near Ormond Beach next Thursday.
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#16 Postby LarryWx » Wed Nov 02, 2022 12:09 pm

1. This could have a significant effect on the SE US coast (especially FL) as early as Election Day (11/8), especially late that day. If so, this could be a factor as regards turnout and thus could affect the outcome in some races in the SE US.

2. The 12Z UKMET is the first run of this model with a TC noted from this with it having transformation into a TC near Cat Island in the Bahamas at 144:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 24.4N 75.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.11.2022 144 24.4N 75.7W 1006 30

3. The 0Z CFS has this landfall in NE FL on 11/10 at storm strength (1001 mb) moving NW.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 02, 2022 12:48 pm

2 PM TWO:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A complex, non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop
this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean Sea or the
southwestern Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical
development of this system is possible afterward while it moves
generally northward to northwestward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#18 Postby GCANE » Wed Nov 02, 2022 1:02 pm

GFS is now hinting at a surface low in the Keys as a spinoff of the large mid-level vort.
Watching how future runs progress.
1 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 974
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#19 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Nov 02, 2022 1:36 pm

For those of us of a certain age (and length of time in Florida), this setup seems very reminiscent of the 1984 Thanksgiving non-tropical storm that battered the FL East Coast and the SE US:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Nove ... r%27easter

and some video here:

https://www.wftv.com/news/video-thanksg ... 97b3f7fdc/
4 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas This Weekend (0/20)

#20 Postby LarryWx » Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:18 pm

The 12Z UKMET hour 156 has near the close of polls on Election Day in FL a 1005 mb TC near Cat Island, Bahamas. Note the very strong 1040 mb high in SE Canada, which leads to a strong gradient all along the SE US coast:

Image

At 1 PM on Election Day, here is the model's projected radar imagery:

Image
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 49 guests