Non-tropical low near Bermuda (Is Invest 97L)

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galaxy401
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Non-tropical low near Bermuda (Is Invest 97L)

#1 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Nov 03, 2022 1:23 am

November continues to spawn these lows. This one is unrelated to the one that'll form this weekend.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located several
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. This system is
currently associated with a limited area of disorganized showers,
and environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for some
gradual subtropical or tropical development of this system as it
begins to move more westward by this weekend. By early next week,
this system is likely to be absorbed by a larger system developing
to its southwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: Non-tropical low near Bermuda (10%/10%)

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 03, 2022 6:55 am

8 AM TWO.

Northwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a weak
non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally
conducive for slow subtropical or tropical development of this
system during the next few days as it moves slowly southward today
and then turns westward by the weekend. The disturbance is expected
to merge with a larger system developing to its southwest by the
end of the weekend and further development is not anticipated at
that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Non-tropical low near Bermuda (10/10)

#3 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Nov 03, 2022 7:23 am

Very hard to believe at the start of September (and even in the middle of the month), people were wondering if we would even go over 10 NSs, and now we're faced with the prospect of reaching the 15th NS in November.

"If we don't start early, then we will run late." is 2022's motto
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Re: Non-tropical low near Bermuda (10/10)

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 03, 2022 12:46 pm

2 PM TWO:

1. East of Bermuda:
A weak non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles east of Bermuda continues to produce a few disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Any tropical or subtropical development
of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next few days
as it moves slowly southward today and then turns westward by the
weekend. The system is forecast to merge with a larger low pressure
area developing to its southwest by the end of the weekend and
further development is not anticipated at that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Non-tropical low near Bermuda (10/10)

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 03, 2022 6:54 pm

8 PM TWO.

1. East-Southeast of Bermuda:
A weak non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred
miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a few disorganized
showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center. Any
tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance should be
slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves little
through Friday and then turns westward over the weekend. The system
is forecast to merge with a larger low pressure area developing to
its southwest by the end of the weekend, and further development is
not anticipated once this occurs.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Non-tropical low near Bermuda (10/10)

#6 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 04, 2022 5:52 pm

The GFS has been tending stronger with this disturbance and now seemingly develops this into a TD or weak TS during the next two days.
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Re: Non-tropical low near Bermuda (10/10)

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 04, 2022 6:32 pm

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A broad area of showers and a few thunderstorms located several
hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with an elongated,
non-tropical area of low pressure. Any tropical or subtropical
development of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the
next day or so while it moves westward to west-northwestward. The
system is forecast to encounter stronger upper-level winds on
Saturday and Saturday night, and further development is not
anticipated beyond that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Non-tropical low near Bermuda (10/10)

#8 Postby Landy » Sat Nov 05, 2022 12:45 am

aspen wrote:The GFS has been tending stronger with this disturbance and now seemingly develops this into a TD or weak TS during the next two days.


00z run continues the trend. As I started typing this NHC released the TWO with upped chances. :lol:
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A broad area of showers and a few thunderstorms located several
hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with an non-tropical
area of low pressure. Recent satellite wind data shows that the
circulation has become somewhat better defined, and addition slow
tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance is possible
during the next two to three days. After that time, the system is
forecast to encounter stronger upper-level winds and further
development is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Non-tropical low near Bermuda (10/10)

#9 Postby Landy » Sat Nov 05, 2022 12:46 am

Latest ASCAT pass that is referred to in the TWO.

Image
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Re: Non-tropical low near Bermuda (20/30)

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 05, 2022 6:40 am

8 AM TWO:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and a few thunderstorms located several hundred miles east
of Bermuda are associated with a non-tropical area of low
pressure. The circulation of the low has become better defined
since yesterday, and addition slow tropical or subtropical
development of this disturbance is possible during the next two to
three days. After that time, the system is forecast to encounter
stronger upper-level winds and further development is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Non-tropical low near Bermuda (Is Invest 97L)

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:16 am

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