Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

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Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#1 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:19 am

Now that 2022 is looking like it is finally winding down (barring any late-season surprises after Nicole), I figured people would begin to turn their sights toward the upcoming hurricane season in 2023. So what could we expect next year?

In my opinion, +ENSO may play a much larger role in 2023 compared to the previous 3 years. We might very well finally end up with an El Nino, or perhaps we enter some kind of warm neutral territory that falls just short of the El Nino threshold. However, I would be genuinely shocked if a La Nina happens yet again, and I think it's quite unlikely at this point that that happens. It will also be interesting to see if we get the infamous July/August/early September "wave-breaking" pattern like we saw this year, which dampened the overall activity of the season. I believe the wave-breaking we saw this year was rather anomalous, and it would be interesting and strange to see 2023 feature something like that or even more extreme. While I am not expecting such an intense wave-breaking pattern to happen in 2023 (and I do expect at least one August storm lol), I also am very much not expecting a 2013 repeat. At this point and especially after what happened this year, I am not going to take any 2013 comparisons seriously (especially during the early season); I think by now many should have hopefully learned the lesson.

Looking at what kinds of storm behaviors we can expect, that is virtually unknown right now. However, here's what we do know. 2022 exposed the flaws in the "Florida shield" concept, as a high-end Cat 4 struck the populated SW part of the state, and the first East Coast landfalling hurricane happened as well. It remains to be seen if 2022 was simply extremely bad luck or if some greater atmospheric pattern change has occurred compared to the many past recent years, thereby putting Florida (especially the peninsula) more under the gun with strong storms.

Most importantly, I am expecting at least one 155 mph or greater storm. It's honestly insane how since 2015, every year has featured such a kind of storm. I'm honestly tempted to believe that regardless of what happens with the ENSO state or what not, 2023 will somehow manage to crank up that kind of beast. I also wouldn't be stunned to see yet another Cat 4+ CONUS Gulf landfall. Where exactly, I don't know.

Feel free to share your thoughts about what next year could be like!
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#2 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:44 am

As an inexperienced follower of tropical cyclones, I still have no formed opinion. Plus, there's still less than 7 months to go until June 1, 2023. So there's a lot to go on until then.

...well, but the least I can assure you is that next season's strongest storm will have winds in excess of 130 mph :lol:
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#3 Postby zal0phus » Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:31 pm

I'm thinking warm neutral conditions and numbers comparable to this year, although generally less impactful. For some reason, I feel as if South Texas may be under the gun.
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 12, 2022 4:31 pm

We're seriously overdue for some kind of El Nino. I have this feeling 2023 will be that year.
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#5 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:54 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:As an inexperienced follower of tropical cyclones, I still have no formed opinion. Plus, there's still less than 7 months to go until June 1, 2023. So there's a lot to go on until then.

...well, but the least I can assure you is that next season's strongest storm will have winds in excess of 130 mph :lol:

It did, with Ian.
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#6 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:We're seriously overdue for some kind of El Nino. I have this feeling 2023 will be that year.

The amount of times this has been said and then the year goes in the complete opposite direction is insane. Hopefully List 3 has a quiet season for once :lol:
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#7 Postby FireRat » Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:20 pm

Using my oddball Chinese Zodiac crystal ball, 2023 might be comparable to these years:

2011, 1999, 1987, 1975, 1963...and so on.
Best ones might be 2011, 1987, 1963, 1903, 1843, 1783.

Overall possibly a quieter year impact-wise, although places like Dominican Republic and Carolinas maybe get hit.
Average to slightly below average season is my guess.
That's all for now :wink:
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#8 Postby LarryWx » Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:45 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:We're seriously overdue for some kind of El Nino. I have this feeling 2023 will be that year.


There have been 8 triple dip cold ENSO periods since 1850 per Eric Webb's data. Here's what the subsequent tropical seasons had:

1872-4: cold neutral
1892-4: warm neutral
1908-10: warm neutral transitioning to El Niño
1915-7: El Niño
1954-6: El Niño
1973-5: El Niño
1983-5: El Niño
1998-2000: cold neutral

So, based on the past fwiw, I give El Niño an edge although the three that were neutral throughout suggest it is only an edge.

How were those 8 following seasons ACEwise compared to the prior season?

1875 vs 1874: 72 vs 47
1895 vs 1894: 69 vs 135
1911 vs 1910: 34 vs 64
1918 vs 1917: 40 vs 61
1957 vs 1956: 79 vs 57
1976 vs 1975: 84 vs 76
1986 vs 1985: 36 vs 88
2001 vs 2000: 110 vs 119

- So, 5 out of 8 had lower ACE than the prior season.
- Average ACE 66 vs 81 the prior season.
- A lot will likely depend on whether or not we're transitioning into/in El Niño. The five that had El Niño for at least part of the season averaged only 55 vs 84 for the neutral ones.

During the current active era (since 1995), El Niño (including transitioning to El Niño) ACE has been as follows:

1997: 41
2002: 68
2004: 227
2006: 79
2009: 53
2014: 67
2015: 63
2018: 133

So, the average ACE for El Niño seasons since 1995: 91

--------------------------------
ENSO data since 1850 from Eric Webb:
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html

ACE data: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumul ... one_energy

-------------------------

Edit: How overdue will we be for El Niño in 2023? Considering there have been no periods greater than 4 years with no El Niño since 1950, we'll be overdue in 2023.

On the other hand, consider that there were three 8-9 year periods with no El Niño during 1850-1950. If 2023 were to not have El Niño, it would still only be five years.
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#9 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:12 pm

I find it interesting that the El Niño in 2018-2019 did not stop the Atlantic from being so active, and it managed to spawn Cat 5’s like Michael and Dorian. I think even with a warm ENSO next year, there is still a chance that the Atlantic will continue the streak of active hurricane seasons that began in 2016.


That being said, we are already on a 6-year streak…just like the old saying goes, all things must come to an end. The question is when will this streak end?
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#10 Postby CFLHurricane » Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:11 pm

I agree with the warm ENSO and storm numbers closer to the median. I still think we’ll have at least one major landfall as seems to be an annual tradition in the Anthropocene.
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#11 Postby LarryWx » Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:25 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I find it interesting that the El Niño in 2018-2019 did not stop the Atlantic from being so active, and it managed to spawn Cat 5’s like Michael and Dorian. I think even with a warm ENSO next year, there is still a chance that the Atlantic will continue the streak of active hurricane seasons that began in 2016.


That being said, we are already on a 6-year streak…just like the old saying goes, all things must come to an end. The question is when will this streak end?


If there were to be El Niño in 2023, the big question for tropical season effects would be whether it is weak or moderate to strong. ACE during weak El Niño seasons has been all over the place:

(Oncoming) Weak El Niño seasons since 1950 with
- below normal ACE: 2014, 1977
- near normal ACE: 2006, 1979, 1976, 1958, 1953
- above normal ACE: 2018, 2004, 1969
- average ACE: 108 (normal)

But moderate to strong (oncoming) El Niño seasons have had mostly BN ACE:

-BN ACE: 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997, 1994, 1991, 1987, 1986, 1982, 1972, 1968
-NN ACE: 1965, 1963, 1957
-AN ACE: 1951
-Average ACE: 59 (BN)
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:46 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#12 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:33 pm

I’m not sure what to expect from 2023 after everything that happened this year. A safe bet is that hyperactivity is unlikely regardless of ENSO state for a variety of reasons: possibly suppressed Atlantic if we get a +ENSO, possibly late-starting season if we get an unheard of quadruple -ENSO, and possible impacts from the Hunga Tonga eruption. Besides that, though, I honestly don’t know what we’ll get. Next year’s ENSO state is as fuzzy as it always is, but there’s the wild card of impacts from Hunga Tonga, which may or may not have contributed to the quiet early half of 2022. One sign pointing towards Tonga impacts would be if we see a weak polar vortex this winter, caused by a pattern in response to the tremendous SHem stratospheric cooling caused by the eruption. We might’ve seen this response pattern already; the same article that brought up the weak polar vortex possibility also talked about the stratospheric cooling leading to sort of a -NAO pattern with a high pressure system over the NW Atlantic, similar to the strong displaced high that led to the tremendous Natl marine heatwave this summer that shut down the basin for nearly two months.

This season has shown that anything is possible even if it starts out abnormally quiet and suppressed. Even if we get an El Niño or warm-neutral ENSO, that might not be enough to cause a below-average season, because the ENSO switch might “reinvigorate” the basin. I recall a lot of discussion about the possibility that continuous -ENSO phases can lead to less active seasons, so if we get a totally different ENSO phase in 2023, it may not be as suppressive as expected. Or the suppressive effects of Tonga’s atmospheric impacts and a +ENSO lead to an extremely inactive season. We could end up with anything from a 1997 repeat to a 2018-esqe repeat. Regardless of total activity, we still might see yet another Cat 4+ landfall next year; not even an August shutout could stop that in 2022.
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#13 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Nov 13, 2022 5:20 pm

I believe activity will be somewhere between 20-250 ACE. We will have anywhere from 2-30 storms. At this point it is very hard to predict what will happen next year. My hot take is another La Niña, cuz why not?
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#14 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Nov 13, 2022 6:01 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I believe activity will be somewhere between 20-250 ACE. We will have anywhere from 2-30 storms. At this point it is very hard to predict what will happen next year. My hot take is another La Niña, cuz why not?

impossible for this take to be wrong in the next year :lol:
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#15 Postby SFLcane » Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:17 pm

Its a shear fest with a bull blown el nino developing next year.

Image
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#16 Postby wxman57 » Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:49 pm

A quiet, El Nino, sub-10 named storms season would be nice. I've seen enough hurricanes in my life. Don't need any more. Come on, El Nino!
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#17 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:A quiet, El Nino, sub-10 named storms season would be nice. I've seen enough hurricanes in my life. Don't need any more. Come on, El Nino!

A busy, La Nina, more than 20 named storms season would be very nice. I don't have seen enough hurricanes in my life. I need more. Come on, La Nina!
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#18 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:28 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:A quiet, El Nino, sub-10 named storms season would be nice. I've seen enough hurricanes in my life. Don't need any more. Come on, El Nino!

A busy, La Nina, more than 20 named storms season would be very nice. I don't have seen enough hurricanes in my life. I need more. Come on, La Nina!

Would it be absolutely insane to have a 4th year La Nina? We would be literally be going into uncharted territory. :eek: :lol:
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#19 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:51 pm

Personally, assuming an El Nino comes in 2023, I'm actually very curious to see if it ends up as a nothing-burger, inactive season that goes lost into hurricane history (what I mean by this is having no named storms getting their names retired after the season ends, so kind of like 1982, 1986, 1987, 1997, 2009, or 2014), or if it ends up as an El Nino year such as 1953, 1963, 1965, 1977, 2002, or 2015, with one or more damaging, Cat 4 or stronger storm(s) despite the overall season being near to below average in ACE.

I think as we learned this year, overall activity and predicting such is one thing; predicting whether or not there will be a major hurricane that devastates a certain region is another story and much more mysterious and harder to do.
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Re: Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

#20 Postby SFLcane » Thu Dec 08, 2022 2:23 pm

SFLcane wrote:Its a shear fest with a bull blown el nino developing next year.

https://i.postimg.cc/6pTw0zj8/nioo.jpg


 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1600885086504636416


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