2023 WPAC Season

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Hayabusa
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2023 WPAC Season

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Dec 23, 2022 12:44 am

At this time last year I expected 2022 to be a more active season than the last two seasons but instead it's less active than 2021 and it also broke the 3-year streak of 165+ knot typhoons. Now forecasts say an Nino is looming for 2023 but there were also talk of an Nino last year/earlier this year too, I don't know what to believe now. An El Nino may produce lots of strong typhoons, but in recent records the strongest ones (Meranti, Goni, Surigae) formed in a La Nina, except Haiyan formed in a neutral ENSO. Maybe 2023 would be back for another extremely intense typhoon formation.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Dec 23, 2022 1:15 am

It would be very interesting to see how this season behaves assuming we enter warm neutral, for example (a possibility that I have personally not counted out yet). Does anybody know how neutral years have treated WPAC activity?
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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#3 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Mar 04, 2023 10:54 am

JMA has just designated a "minor" tropical depression very close to the equator, east of Singapore.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 02N 107E ALMOST STATIONARY


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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#4 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:43 am

Almost exactly where Vamei formed in 2001. I am very interested in these extreme low latitude storms. Will be watching to see if that can get stronger.

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:JMA has just designated a "minor" tropical depression very close to the equator, east of Singapore.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 02N 107E ALMOST STATIONARY


https://i.imgur.com/ybIngtc.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/2EoKUKQ.jpg
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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:42 am

Latest ENSO update is out. Will we finally see the first active season in 3 years? :D
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#6 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Mar 17, 2023 4:33 pm

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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:34 am

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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:58 am


For a looming El Nino that TC density graphic looks like for La Nina instead
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#9 Postby JetFuel_SE » Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:57 am


8X[BasinLetter] is used for training purposes.
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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Apr 03, 2023 4:11 am

Pretty potent MJO moving over the WPAC, would it spawn a strong typhoon? GFS is showing development but not that strong, while Euro just a low.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 04, 2023 1:23 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Pretty potent MJO moving over the WPAC, would it spawn a strong typhoon? GFS is showing development but not that strong, while Euro just a low.
https://i.imgur.com/ph06wD9.png
https://i.imgur.com/DtWYrx0.png

Yeah very odd that there's no hint of a STY on the models. But it's probably due to the models keeping the MJO stronger over 120E and weaker over 140-150E.

We should (eventually?) be seeing some strong model canes in the WPAC though.
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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 04, 2023 9:04 pm

:uarrow: Look towards Australia if you want something strong from the looming WWB
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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 22, 2023 11:46 am

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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#14 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Apr 23, 2023 2:06 am

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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#15 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Apr 23, 2023 8:59 am

For a pre-El Nino period I must say that I'm expecting a lot more from WPAC, especially with the recent MJO passage. Although it's quite too early to speculate about anything IMO.
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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Apr 23, 2023 10:54 am

dexterlabio wrote:For a pre-El Nino period I must say that I'm expecting a lot more from WPAC, especially with the recent MJO passage. Although it's quite too early to speculate about anything IMO.

Yeah I expected too much this was like the strongest MJO passage in this basin in 2 years and we only got a TD and a measly TS.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#17 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Apr 23, 2023 1:41 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:For a pre-El Nino period I must say that I'm expecting a lot more from WPAC, especially with the recent MJO passage. Although it's quite too early to speculate about anything IMO.

Yeah I expected too much this was like the strongest MJO passage in this basin in 2 years and we only got a TD and a measly TS.


I think it's a case of "stolen" potential. The MJO favored the TC from the SHem instead.
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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#18 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 23, 2023 3:09 pm

Definitely should've seen at least a STY considering the Nino that's brewing. We'll see what May brings.
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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#19 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun Apr 23, 2023 3:19 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Definitely should've seen at least a STY considering the Nino that's brewing. We'll see what May brings.

We gradually seem to be getting that atmospheric Niño coupling so even though the MJO won't be in an optimal phase for the WPAC for now it shouldn't take too long to circle back and thus produce something (especially if another WWB gets going in the process.
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Re: 2023 WPAC Season

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 25, 2023 8:11 pm

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