2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#61 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:36 am

Expect the Caribbean to be a graveyard as a result of the convection from the likely El Niño. Outside the Caribbean is fair game unless the WAM is much less active than recent years.
3 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#62 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:46 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 575
Age: 49
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#63 Postby crownweather » Tue Mar 21, 2023 1:01 pm



Interesting that you mention that because a good chunk of the analog years (8 out of 9) I came up with for the hurricane season featured early season development. These include:
1899: Tropical Storm in late June and a hurricane in late July.
1951: Hurricane Able in mid May.
1957: Hurricane Audrey in late June, as well as a unnamed tropical storm in early June.
1965: Unnamed tropical storm in mid-June.
1972: Sub-Tropical Storm in late May and Hurricane Agnes in mid June.
1976: Sub-Tropical Storm in late May.
1997: Unnamed tropical storm in early June and Tropical Storm Ana in late June & early July.
2009: Tropical depression in late May.

So I'm pretty confident that we'll probably see some early development (maybe as early as mid May to early June) this season.
2 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com

User avatar
WalterWhite
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 311
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:53 pm

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#64 Postby WalterWhite » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:58 pm

For ASO, SST anomalies in the Caribbean matter most! The MDR, Canary Current, and ENSO are also very important.

Image

What matters most for determining how active this season will be is:

  • Whether the ENSO will be positive or negative (looking positive)
  • How warm the Caribbean will be
  • How warm the MDR will be (likely be warm, similar to most recent years)
  • Whether SSTAs off Iberia will be positive or negative
1 likes   

User avatar
JetFuel_SE
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 261
Age: 24
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#65 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed Mar 22, 2023 3:20 am

crownweather wrote:


Interesting that you mention that because a good chunk of the analog years (8 out of 9) I came up with for the hurricane season featured early season development. These include:
1899: Tropical Storm in late June and a hurricane in late July.
1951: Hurricane Able in mid May.
1957: Hurricane Audrey in late June, as well as a unnamed tropical storm in early June.
1965: Unnamed tropical storm in mid-June.
1972: Sub-Tropical Storm in late May and Hurricane Agnes in mid June.
1976: Sub-Tropical Storm in late May.
1997: Unnamed tropical storm in early June and Tropical Storm Ana in late June & early July.
2009: Tropical depression in late May.

So I'm pretty confident that we'll probably see some early development (maybe as early as mid May to early June) this season.

Well, we kinda already had 90L in January lol.
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#66 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 22, 2023 8:16 am

It's not a significant sample size by any means, but it is quite interesting that since 1950 at least, the two years that featured a major hurricane in June (1957 and 1966) both had positive ENSO 3.4 region sst anomalies by the time such happened. In 1957, it was a bona fide El Nino by June, and in 1966, the season just came out of a moderate El Nino event.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#67 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Mar 22, 2023 10:46 am

0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#68 Postby SFLcane » Wed Mar 22, 2023 11:43 am

0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#69 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 22, 2023 12:15 pm



For the most part, I guess? I don't know though, Florida and the Bahamas do seem a bit wetter than normal (Caribbean and deep tropics seem very dry, as expected for a +ENSO event).

Although the strange thing is, I question why the EPAC is so dry despite the expected El Nino. I find that particularly interesting, perhaps moreso than the Atlantic itself :lol:

Edit: I just noticed this is for June-August and doesn't even include September or October; I'm very curious to see what this anomaly map will look like for ASO, when hurricane season is in full force
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#70 Postby SFLcane » Wed Mar 22, 2023 12:50 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:


For the most part, I guess? I don't know though, Florida and the Bahamas do seem a bit wetter than normal (Caribbean and deep tropics seem very dry, as expected for a +ENSO event).

Although the strange thing is, I question why the EPAC is so dry despite the expected El Nino. I find that particularly interesting, perhaps moreso than the Atlantic itself :lol:

Edit: I just noticed this is for June-August and doesn't even include September or October; I'm very curious to see what this anomaly map will look like for ASO, when hurricane season is in full force


Probably worse lol since El Nino peaks in fall/winter usually.
0 likes   

zzzh
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 506
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:13 pm

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#71 Postby zzzh » Wed Mar 22, 2023 1:32 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow: In El Nino years EPAC itcz retracts southward.
Last edited by zzzh on Wed Mar 22, 2023 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#72 Postby SFLcane » Wed Mar 22, 2023 1:32 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#73 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 22, 2023 3:37 pm



Hi Adrian. TV met in Miami? He explains everything in a clear way that all can understand.
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#74 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:11 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#75 Postby SFLcane » Thu Mar 23, 2023 11:01 am

cycloneye wrote:


Hi Adrian. TV met in Miami? He explains everything in a clear way that all can understand.


Hi Luis! Nope its Steve Caparotta, Ph.D. @SteveWAFB in the gulfcoast.
1 likes   

User avatar
WalterWhite
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 311
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:53 pm

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#76 Postby WalterWhite » Sat Mar 25, 2023 5:26 pm

Part of me thinks 2023 could actually be surprisingly active for a +ENSO year given the -PDO signature that is expected to remain. Above-average sea surface temperatures are expected to remain across the Subtropical North Pacific, indicating a negative PDO. This negative PDO will create sinking air over the Pacific, leading to rising air in the Atlantic, favoring activity in the Atlantic.

PDO: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
ENSO: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.el_nino.dat

Since 1995, the seasons with a positive ENSO but negative PDO during the peak (August to October) were 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2018, and 2019; this averages to an ACE of 118 square hectoknots. For reference, since 1995, the seasons with both a positive ENSO and positive PDO during the peak were 1997, 2003, 2015, and 2015; this averages to an ACE of 87 square hectoknots, which is 31 square hectoknots lower than the +ENSO/-PDO average.
Last edited by WalterWhite on Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

zzzh
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 506
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:13 pm

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#77 Postby zzzh » Sat Mar 25, 2023 5:37 pm

:uarrow: PDO- does not create sinking air over the pacific
1 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:14 pm

:uarrow: Considering 2004 and 2019 as -PDO feels like cherry picking. Even 2018 is a bit questionable but some indices list it as -.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#79 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Mar 26, 2023 4:27 am

Also given that reasoning one would argue that -PDO/-ENSO year should be the most ideal combination for an active Atlantic hurricane season, but those kind of years post-1995 were not all that active. The dreaded 2013 is an example of that.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
WalterWhite
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 311
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:53 pm

Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#80 Postby WalterWhite » Sun Mar 26, 2023 7:37 am

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Considering 2004 and 2019 as -PDO feels like cherry picking. Even 2018 is a bit questionable but some indices list it as -.


According to the index used, the mean PDO for ASO 2004, 2018, and 2019 are -0.15, -0.39, -0.25. They all count as -PDO during the peak of hurricane season.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Chris90 and 56 guests