2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

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WalterWhite
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#81 Postby WalterWhite » Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:14 am

dexterlabio wrote:Also given that reasoning one would argue that -PDO/-ENSO year should be the most ideal combination for an active Atlantic hurricane season, but those kind of years post-1995 were not all that active. The dreaded 2013 is an example of that.


-PDO/-ENSO is the most ideal combination, though. From 1967 (start of satellite era) to 2022, -PDO/-ENSO produced the highest average ACE of any combination. This will only cover +AMO years (given that there is basically a 100% chance 2023 will have a positive AMO).

AMO data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.amo.dat
PDO data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
ENSO data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.el_nino.dat

+AMO/-PDO/-ENSO: 1988, 1989, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2022 (average ACE = 143 square hectoknots)
+AMO/+PDO/-ENSO: 1980, 1983, 1995 (average ACE = 131 square hectoknots)
+AMO/-PDO/+ENSO: 1990, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2018, 2019 (average ACE = 115 square hectoknots)
+AMO/+PDO/+ENSO: 1987, 1997, 2003, 2014, 2015 (average ACE = 77 square hectoknots)
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#82 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:08 pm

The Atlantic deep tropics look very warm for this time of year, especially for a potential +ENSO year. If it persists, I'm interested to see how it counters the likely development of El Nino. I remember Eric Webb had mentioned something before about a warm Atlantic MDR impeding/slowing El Nino development, so that'll be interesting to watch over the next few months.

The coastal El Nino we are currently seeing is pretty similar to something we saw in 2017, but I don't think a 2017-like progression is very likely due to the fact we had been in a -ENSO state for the previous three years (whereas in 2017, there was only a brief weak La Nina).
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#83 Postby NotSparta » Sun Mar 26, 2023 1:58 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:The Atlantic deep tropics look very warm for this time of year, especially for a potential +ENSO year. If it persists, I'm interested to see how it counters the likely development of El Nino. I remember Eric Webb had mentioned something before about a warm Atlantic MDR impeding/slowing El Nino development, so that'll be interesting to watch over the next few months.

The coastal El Nino we are currently seeing is pretty similar to something we saw in 2017, but I don't think a 2017-like progression is very likely due to the fact we had been in a -ENSO state for the previous three years (whereas in 2017, there was only a brief weak La Nina).


No lackluster subsurface look like 2017, either

Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#84 Postby WalterWhite » Sun Mar 26, 2023 3:02 pm

NotSparta wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:The Atlantic deep tropics look very warm for this time of year, especially for a potential +ENSO year. If it persists, I'm interested to see how it counters the likely development of El Nino. I remember Eric Webb had mentioned something before about a warm Atlantic MDR impeding/slowing El Nino development, so that'll be interesting to watch over the next few months.

The coastal El Nino we are currently seeing is pretty similar to something we saw in 2017, but I don't think a 2017-like progression is very likely due to the fact we had been in a -ENSO state for the previous three years (whereas in 2017, there was only a brief weak La Nina).


No lackluster subsurface look like 2017, either

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1089624487013658836/dep_lon_EQ_20230323_t_anom_20170323_t_anom_500_0_500_0_hf_2023032611.png


This should seal the deal for 2023 being a +ENSO year. The facts that 4th year La Ninas are rare, that the subsurface equatorial Pacific is warmer-than-average, that the SOI is starting to go negative, and that all of the climate model guidance points to a +ENSO for the 2023-2024 winter. Not saying at a -ENSO this winter is impossible, but it is so improbable that I would be comfortable waging money on a +ENSO this winter.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#85 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Mar 27, 2023 4:16 pm

I know you all are on top of much of this stuff already but here are some thoughts on the 2023 season as part of my weekly video discussion.

Obviously ENSO will be a key driver but, as we saw last year, it's never a cut and dry deal; sometimes there are surprises.



Link: https://youtu.be/3yLG1eQpwwM
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#86 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon Mar 27, 2023 5:11 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:I know you all are on top of much of this stuff already but here are some thoughts on the 2023 season as part of my weekly video discussion.

Obviously ENSO will be a key driver but, as we saw last year, it's never a cut and dry deal; sometimes there are surprises.

https://youtu.be/3yLG1eQpwwM

We also have years like 1969, which was an El Niño year with a very active Atlantic.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#87 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Mar 28, 2023 10:27 pm

h/t alex boreham

the Atlantic is warm, very warm. Probably the warmest for this time of year in a long time.

Image

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#88 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:14 am

weeniepatrol wrote:h/t alex boreham

the Atlantic is warm, very warm. Probably the warmest for this time of year in a long time.

https://i.imgur.com/10MBqgM.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/ehtHdsi.png

The MDR/Canary Current warmth is quite impressive, especially for a potential +ENSO year. I can't think of many +ENSO analogs that had a tropical Atlantic this warm in spring. 1997 did have a fairly favorable SST profile early on, and went on to have a Super El Niño which probably won't happen this year.

If it persists, I wouldn't be shocked to see a few rapid developments right off the African coast. During +ENSO years, shear is typically reduced over the far eastern tropical Atlantic compared to -ENSO years. It wouldn't be too surprising to see a more active eastern MDR than last season but less active Caribbean.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#89 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:21 am

Old thread from Levi, but discusses the complexity of +ENSO/warm MDR setups. 2017 ultimately went on to have a cool ENSO by fall though, so it did not fit into that category.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/864170737166409729


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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#90 Postby Teban54 » Wed Mar 29, 2023 2:07 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:h/t alex boreham

the Atlantic is warm, very warm. Probably the warmest for this time of year in a long time.

https://i.imgur.com/10MBqgM.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/ehtHdsi.png

The MDR/Canary Current warmth is quite impressive, especially for a potential +ENSO year. I can't think of many +ENSO analogs that had a tropical Atlantic this warm in spring. 1997 did have a fairly favorable SST profile early on, and went on to have a Super El Niño which probably won't happen this year.

If it persists, I wouldn't be shocked to see a few rapid developments right off the African coast. During +ENSO years, shear is typically reduced over the far eastern tropical Atlantic compared to -ENSO years. It wouldn't be too surprising to see a more active eastern MDR than last season but less active Caribbean.

Reminds me of 2018 with hurricanes Florence and Helene in the eastern MDR in September (the former RI'ing to Cat 4 just north of MDR proper, the latter peaking as a strong, early-recurve Cat 2). And that year's MDR was much colder than it is now.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#91 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed Mar 29, 2023 3:15 pm

Teban54 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:h/t alex boreham

the Atlantic is warm, very warm. Probably the warmest for this time of year in a long time.

https://i.imgur.com/10MBqgM.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/ehtHdsi.png

The MDR/Canary Current warmth is quite impressive, especially for a potential +ENSO year. I can't think of many +ENSO analogs that had a tropical Atlantic this warm in spring. 1997 did have a fairly favorable SST profile early on, and went on to have a Super El Niño which probably won't happen this year.

If it persists, I wouldn't be shocked to see a few rapid developments right off the African coast. During +ENSO years, shear is typically reduced over the far eastern tropical Atlantic compared to -ENSO years. It wouldn't be too surprising to see a more active eastern MDR than last season but less active Caribbean.

Reminds me of 2018 with hurricanes Florence and Helene in the eastern MDR in September (the former RI'ing to Cat 4 just north of MDR proper, the latter peaking as a strong, early-recurve Cat 2). And that year's MDR was much colder than it is now.

Ah, 2018. Probably the biggest overperforming season in recent times at least.
Image
Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#92 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 29, 2023 3:25 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:The MDR/Canary Current warmth is quite impressive, especially for a potential +ENSO year. I can't think of many +ENSO analogs that had a tropical Atlantic this warm in spring. 1997 did have a fairly favorable SST profile early on, and went on to have a Super El Niño which probably won't happen this year.

If it persists, I wouldn't be shocked to see a few rapid developments right off the African coast. During +ENSO years, shear is typically reduced over the far eastern tropical Atlantic compared to -ENSO years. It wouldn't be too surprising to see a more active eastern MDR than last season but less active Caribbean.

Reminds me of 2018 with hurricanes Florence and Helene in the eastern MDR in September (the former RI'ing to Cat 4 just north of MDR proper, the latter peaking as a strong, early-recurve Cat 2). And that year's MDR was much colder than it is now.

Ah, 2018. Probably the biggest overperforming season in recent times at least.
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1_op/image/daily/ssta/png/2018/06/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20180601.png
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1_op/image/daily/ssta/png/2018/09/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20180901.png


The fact that that season managed to exceed 2022 in ACE and NS count amazes me. Just shows you how ENSO is not everything.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#93 Postby gatorcane » Wed Mar 29, 2023 8:22 pm

Indicators are strongly pointing at an El Niño for this hurricane season with impressive SST anomalies already showing up near the western coast of South America near the equator. El Niño = less Atlantic activity especially across the Caribbean.

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#94 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Mar 30, 2023 11:47 am

Image

Just, wow.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#95 Postby Teban54 » Thu Mar 30, 2023 12:14 pm

I know this is unlikely to happen, but what if we end up with an El Nino but with Atlantic MDR SSTs at 2017 and 2020 levels? :double:
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#96 Postby SFLcane » Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:23 pm

Even with El nino, Florida and sw atlantic are wide open.... :sick:

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#97 Postby NotSparta » Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:48 pm

Teban54 wrote:I know this is unlikely to happen, but what if we end up with an El Nino but with Atlantic MDR SSTs at 2017 and 2020 levels? :double:


That would sure be interesting. Usually SSTs of that level discourage El Nino development though
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#98 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Mar 30, 2023 3:30 pm

Teban54 wrote:I know this is unlikely to happen, but what if we end up with an El Nino but with Atlantic MDR SSTs at 2017 and 2020 levels? :double:



I'm thinking something like 1979 with a few more named storms and fewer tropical depressions. But that's just a wild and at least somewhat uneducated guess. 8-)
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#99 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 30, 2023 4:00 pm

Eastern MDR is on fire but is March 30 and that little guy is looming. Will 2023 be a case of both basins warm and a +AMO?

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1641526463609602048




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1641542599105482753


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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#100 Postby WalterWhite » Thu Mar 30, 2023 4:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:Eastern MDR is on fire but is March 30 and that little guy is looming. Will 2023 be a case of both basins warm and a +AMO?

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1641526463609602048

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1641542599105482753


It is March, though. These past few seasons, the MDR has always been warm enough to support hyperactivity. A warm ENSO's negative impacts on Atlantic activity will likely hurt the Atlantic more than a warm MDR would help the Atlantic in this case.
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