2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665386259131318272

[cycloneye]

Webb says 1899 as the closest analog to 2023.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665412939556458496




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665417704759521282




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665418363105886213

[cycloneye]

The replies to Webbs thread on twitter are very interesting.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665432441157300226




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665417403939934208




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665419693182849029




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654111135673765888




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665421553788497921




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665417403939934208

[Category5Kaiju]

The replies to Webbs thread on twitter are very interesting.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665432441157300226

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665417403939934208

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665419693182849029

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654111135673765888

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665421553788497921

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665417403939934208

I find it especially fascinating that the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane on record occurred during a robust El Nino year

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665453506415738880




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665453508806471683

[SFLcane]

1899 surely makes me nervous being in South Florida. We shall see

[cycloneye]

Look what is in MDR and is not a strong wave. Let's see how much this factor affects the season in terms of more or less formations.

[jfk08c]

Look what is in MDR and is not a strong wave. Let's see how much this factor affects the season in terms of more or less formations.

https://i.imgur.com/WS0EOdY.jpg

The SAL usually peaks around this time every year, not surprising. Should die down in August for peak season like it normally does

[NDG]

ECMWF's updated June Seasonal forecast came out today, it continues with its forecast of a 40% above average for the Atlantic, is not backing down.

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1665695658974629888

[NDG]

Interesting Tweet by Eric Webb with his analog years, the Gulf Coast may not get a break this year if the average between these years come to fruition.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665703965575757832

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665453506415738880?t=eo-uvckthnwDNQWGzRf_6Q&s=19

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665453508806471683

Unreal how warm the Canary Current is this year. Made some composites to compare the general look we've had over the spring (MAM) with some of the years he mentioned which featured favorable configurations in the Atlantic during the same trimonthly timeframe, and you can see just how much the Canary Current has really stuck out.

[cycloneye]

Yikes. Adrian, I also open the eyes.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1665741638075834369

[toad strangler]

Look what is in MDR and is not a strong wave. Let's see how much this factor affects the season in terms of more or less formations.

https://i.imgur.com/WS0EOdY.jpg

Those colors stand out on that map but in reality that isn't much of an SAL layer if at all. Michael Lowry (Hurricane Specialist for WPLG-TV in Miami) has been talking about the LACK of SAL so far possibly being a factor in the bath water setting up out there.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Look what is in MDR and is not a strong wave. Let's see how much this factor affects the season in terms of more or less formations.

https://i.imgur.com/WS0EOdY.jpg

Those colors stand out on that map but in reality that isn't much of an SAL layer if at all. Michael Lowry (Hurricane Specialist for WPLG-TV in Miami) has been talking about the LACK of SAL so far possibly being a factor in the bath water setting up out there.

Also worth mentioning that GOES imagery often overdoes SAL, which is why applaud Alex Boreham/NotSparta for resurrecting the Meteosat imagery (which is much more subdued and realistic when detecting it).

[hurricanes1234]

48 hours apart.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Doesn't SAL usually peak in July when the wave train really gets going?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I'm honestly in awe at this point lol
Once again had it not been for the budding El Niño (or if literally any other ENSO state was expected) this would be a slam dunk forecast for an exceptionally active season
 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1665741638075834369

[zzzh]

Doesn't SAL usually peak in July when the wave train really gets going?

SAL peaks in mid June.

[SFLcane]

Got ukmet office and ecmwf forecasting 9+ hurricanes these downcasters need to find a hobby.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Got ukmet office and ecmwf forecasting 9+ hurricanes these downcasters need to find a hobby.

Do keep in mind there's a chance models could be overly aggressive. ECMWF SEAS5 was the most bullish it had ever been last June in forecasting an ACE value ~170% of average, yet it ended up busting by quite a bit. Not saying the same will happen here, but it's best to exercise caution given ENSO. Once again the amount of resistance the incredibly favorable NATL SSTs will provide against El Niño is crucial here. Will really be fascinating to see how this season plays out for that reason, and you can bet this will be a case study moving forward regardless of what happens, just because it's something we don't see very often.