2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#341 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 08, 2023 1:32 pm

I do want to bring up that anomalies is not SSTs. SSTa is how much above/near/below from the current averages. It's not all that warm in Spring compared to late summer and Fall where it is always more than warm enough for cat 5s all over the MDR in whatever ENSO year. Also warmer than normal now doesn't equate to warmer than normal later as rate of warming is not equal vice versa with cool anomalies.

In truth all of the global Oceans are warming at a decent pace, so it's not charted territories how things interact with each other compared to the past.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#342 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 08, 2023 4:41 pm

Very interesting from Levi about intraseasonal forcing.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1655688164001091585


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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#343 Postby Teban54 » Mon May 08, 2023 5:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:Very interesting from Levi about intraseasonal forcing.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1655688164001091585

Amateur opinion, but I'm starting to wonder if this season's activity patterns may bear lots of resemblance to 2021 when all is said and done. Despite drastic differences in ENSO, possible similarities include:

* Heavy dependence on MJO
* Generally east-based season with MDR recurve storms (Larry, Sam) during peak season
* Early shutdown with little to no activity in October

An intense Gulf storm like Ida may be less likely in an El Nino, but then 1969, which has been mentioned as an analog fairly often, did feature Camille.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#344 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 08, 2023 5:44 pm

Teban54 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Very interesting from Levi about intraseasonal forcing.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1655688164001091585

Amateur opinion, but I'm starting to wonder if this season's activity patterns may bear lots of resemblance to 2021 when all is said and done. Despite drastic differences in ENSO, possible similarities include:

* Heavy dependence on MJO
* Generally east-based season with MDR recurve storms (Larry, Sam) during peak season
* Early shutdown with little to no activity in October

An intense Gulf storm like Ida may be less likely in an El Nino, but then 1969, which has been mentioned as an analog fairly often, did feature Camille.


I'm honestly a bit more wary of an East Coast slammer than I am with a Gulf slammer during this kind of year. I think if the activity is shifted north of the Caribbean this year, while yes we will likely see recurving fish storms, if the right atmospheric steering currents fall in place at the right time (so basically, assuming ridging isn't too strong and troughing isn't too strong), that kind of storm could take a path from the MDR and threaten the SW Atlantic (the Bahamas, Eastern Florida, or the GA-NC region).

In fact, based on many of these precip plots I'm seeing, it seems like that could be a somewhat favored storm path during the August/September timeframe. We'll see; we're definitely in a heightened period of major hurricane impacts in the Atlantic (has been like this since at least 2016).
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#345 Postby Iceresistance » Tue May 09, 2023 9:06 am

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#346 Postby AlanSnyder35 » Tue May 09, 2023 9:27 am



TONSS of Rising Air in the EPAC. BUT there is A LOT of Rising air over Africa and MUCH of the Atlantic really.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#347 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 09, 2023 9:36 am



In many of the El Nino years we talk about like 2002 and 2009, I believe there was rising in the Pacific but sinking over Africa.

This is basically what you get if you have a strong WAM and wet Sahel. I'm telling ya, that really might make a difference in activity levels. Sst anomalies aren't really the only factor that we should consider.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#348 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 09, 2023 9:45 am


Classic signal for an African Standing Wave there. Status quo for the current regime we've been experiencing over the past 6 or 7 years or so, and likely a sign that the WAM should be a significant driver yet again this season, especially in the face of unfavorable ENSO.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#349 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 09, 2023 5:28 pm

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1655695517970571268




Danny Morris seems to have a pretty interesting take on the question of "what do you think would be the absolute cap for this season's potential?"
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#350 Postby Kingsunited33 » Tue May 09, 2023 5:31 pm

NotSparta wrote:
AlanSnyder35 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
What is "natural warming"?


Does it not warm A LITTLE from the Sun Angle as we head farther into Summer ? do believe that is a thing. Obviously somebody an correct me if i'm wrong on this.


Well yeah, that's been going on since March. But we're talking about sea surface temperature anomalies, so this climatological warming isn't relevant


I would disagree there. Since 2015 the MDR has warmed up by at least +0.2C up into peak season I don't think this year will be different yet. I would consider that a partial consequence of natural warming and we're emerging out of spring where evaporation and typical patterns that promote significant cooling become less likely the deeper into the season we get. We've never seen a setup quite like this so we have to be careful trying to figure out how this season will progress.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#351 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 09, 2023 5:43 pm



It will be a interesting battle between the effects of El Niño and the African standard wave.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#352 Postby Iceresistance » Tue May 09, 2023 6:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:


It will be a interesting battle between the effects of El Niño and the African standard wave.


Oh yes, this may be the one of the most legendary battles we have seen. It's the crazy ASW vs El Nino.

2023 may become a season unlike any other.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#353 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 09, 2023 6:23 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
cycloneye wrote:


It will be a interesting battle between the effects of El Niño and the African standard wave.


Oh yes, this may be the one of the most legendary battles we have seen. It's the crazy ASW vs El Nino.

2023 may become a season unlike any other.


It’s something I see already happening a bit on social media, but this is precisely why I personally think that those already bust-casting (and I mean already calling for dead season, 6/2/0, etc) due to the impending El Niño might really be missing some crucial factors that, while quite unusual for regular El Niño years, could play a role in this season and actually prove that it’s more than just the ENSO phase that determines exactly how active the Atlantic becomes.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#354 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 09, 2023 7:41 pm

Kingsunited33 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
AlanSnyder35 wrote:
Does it not warm A LITTLE from the Sun Angle as we head farther into Summer ? do believe that is a thing. Obviously somebody an correct me if i'm wrong on this.


Well yeah, that's been going on since March. But we're talking about sea surface temperature anomalies, so this climatological warming isn't relevant


I would disagree there. Since 2015 the MDR has warmed up by at least +0.2C up into peak season I don't think this year will be different yet. I would consider that a partial consequence of natural warming and we're emerging out of spring where evaporation and typical patterns that promote significant cooling become less likely the deeper into the season we get. We've never seen a setup quite like this so we have to be careful trying to figure out how this season will progress.


The faster MDR warmups we have seen in recent summers is due to the onset of the (unusually strong) WAMs weakening trades. Not due to increased sun angle which is ~constant every year.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#355 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 10, 2023 10:29 am

Image

Welp...
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#356 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 10, 2023 4:34 pm

Euro has two WWBs across the Atlantic MDR over the next 2 weeks.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#357 Postby AlanSnyder35 » Wed May 10, 2023 4:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Euro has two WWBs across the Atlantic MDR over the next 2 weeks.


If That is the case we could get even higher than our first SST peak of the year in Late April, Early May. That is interesting to see if it pans out.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#358 Postby AnnularCane » Wed May 10, 2023 6:12 pm

Less than a week till the TWOs.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#359 Postby Blown Away » Thu May 11, 2023 6:38 am

AnnularCane wrote:Less than a week till the TWOs.


I'm ready to see those 7 day shaded areas on interests... 8-)
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#360 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 11, 2023 11:08 am

Welp..looks like the Atlantic season has already started (if you know what I'm saying) :lol:
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