2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#361 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu May 11, 2023 11:24 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/0bxqS6n.png

Welp...

All those cool anomalies north of 30N would argue for high pressure being parked in that area. Unless storms curve out very quickly, they could make their way west, and just north of the MDR shear wont be as bad.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#362 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu May 11, 2023 11:33 am

Another thing I have been looking at is the cold anomalies off the California coast that jut out to south of Hawaii. That might keep the central Nino region cooler that the eastern most region. What would be the effect of a very eastward centered El Nino?
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#363 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 11, 2023 11:41 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Another thing I have been looking at is the cold anomalies off the California coast that jut out to south of Hawaii. That might keep the central Nino region cooler that the eastern most region. What would be the effect of a very eastward centered El Nino?


In a nutshell, eastern based El Nino is the classic form that we all think of when we coin the term with its effects. The further west the warming the more 'modoki' configuration which tends to be more favorable for other basins.

There are other nuances that matter but ENSO events can change from season to season even within a singular event.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#364 Postby NDG » Thu May 11, 2023 2:37 pm

I'm surprised 1987 is not been looked at as an analog year.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#365 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 11, 2023 3:09 pm

NDG wrote:I'm surprised 1987 is not been looked at as an analog year.


1987 is a bad analog because the year already started off with moderate El Nino conditions (a continuation of the prior year, 1986, when the Nino first developed). The Atlantic was also much colder than it is now, and Africa was much drier.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#366 Postby JetFuel_SE » Thu May 11, 2023 3:14 pm

NDG wrote:I'm surprised 1987 is not been looked at as an analog year.

Image
Image
I'm not. That was a 2nd-year El Niño, this year isn't.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#367 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu May 11, 2023 4:39 pm

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#369 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 11, 2023 6:32 pm



Big -PMM from the El Nino means the big precip anomalies are focused near the equator rather than further north like in 2020. It looks wetter than 2020 just in a different spot
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#370 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 11, 2023 6:50 pm

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#371 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 11, 2023 7:22 pm

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#372 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 11, 2023 8:03 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:

Still think the Niño will ultimately win out in the end but there is a decent chance that the basin could still put up respectable numbers (or at least more respectable than what we typically see during these events). I've said this before but the eastern and central MDR have the potential to be relatively hospitable if TWs can get going early on (especially if aided by well-timed CCKW/MJO passage). 55W and beyond should be where storms will start encountering problems with shear the further W they track, and the Caribbean should be off-limits as is typical with El Niños, but I guess that goes without saying.


Agree completely, if this nino were going super we could probably expect a standing wave over the Epac that just nukes the Atlantic but with a lesser amplitude and this prolific Atlantic warmth, intraseasonal forcing should be able to make its way through providing windows of development. 3-4 majors is definitely possible. NOAA forecast should be soon.


The official date that they will release is going to be on May 25th.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#374 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 12, 2023 9:12 am

There will be a window for development across the tropical Atlantic come August as shear lowers quite a bit.

Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#375 Postby LarryWx » Fri May 12, 2023 10:03 am

SFLcane wrote:There will be a window for development across the tropical Atlantic come August as shear lowers quite a bit.

https://i.postimg.cc/yN9CpRVM/cfs.gif


Thanks for posting. Do you or does anyone else know how accurate the CFSv2 is regarding predicting shear anomalies 3 months out? Based on my recall, models in general often have major trouble predicting shear just a few days out, much less 3 months.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#376 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 12, 2023 10:42 am

LarryWx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:There will be a window for development across the tropical Atlantic come August as shear lowers quite a bit.

https://i.postimg.cc/yN9CpRVM/cfs.gif


Thanks for posting. Do you or does anyone else know how accurate the CFSv2 is regarding predicting shear anomalies 3 months out? Based on my recall, models in general often have major trouble predicting shear just a few days out, much less 3 months.


Not particularly beyond 1-2 months but i found it interesting.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#377 Postby NDG » Fri May 12, 2023 2:59 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
NDG wrote:I'm surprised 1987 is not been looked at as an analog year.


1987 is a bad analog because the year already started off with moderate El Nino conditions (a continuation of the prior year, 1986, when the Nino first developed). The Atlantic was also much colder than it is now, and Africa was much drier.


I do see some similarities in that during the beginning of the hurricane season SSTs between Baja MX and Hawaii along and just south of the 20th latitude were below average similar to this year with the EPAC season not really getting started until late July because of that, and the Atlantic MDR was near average to above average with a +AMO.
Despite a moderate El Nino the Atlantic's only MH was in the Caribbean and not in the subtropical Atlantic, which is the point I am trying to make that I do think this season if current Atlantic conditions continue it can easily out perform 1987 which was still during the less active Atlantic period.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#378 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat May 13, 2023 6:24 pm

Image

So, about those MDR westerlies.... :D
Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#379 Postby Iceresistance » Sat May 13, 2023 10:03 pm

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#380 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 16, 2023 9:26 am

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