2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#421 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 31, 2023 1:12 pm

chaser1 wrote:
JetFuel_SE wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Interestingly, there's only 24 hr.'s left for the 2023 North Atlantic Season Poll and it just seems that this year's poll having the lowest participation that I remember, suggests that a vast number of people are primarily disinterested in the 2023 season likely as a result of their severe "El Nino - Season Cancel bias".

And then we have UKMO model, which seemingly got the Atlantic and EPAC mixed up. 306 ACE ceiling lmao


Well, yeah..... and then you have "that" :double: Go figure LOL. King Kong (El Nino) vs Godzilla (+AMO) - the battle of the titans. Quite reasonably the outcome may be less of a definative "win" for either atmospheric variable, and more of quirky twist as a result of both variables (such as 20 really weak named storms, with an average life span of under 72 hours, or the Bahamas becoming this year's MDR with nearly all storm tracks off to the East & Northeast. Maybe 2023 will ultimately be more like "The Spawn of King Kong & Godzilla" :ggreen:


And then you have Mechagodzilla come in as some unforeseen variable (maybe like mid-level dry air or something like that, idk) and throw a wrench into both the EPAC and Atlantic, making them less active than ever anticipated. :)

Ok but seriously, I think this year is going to be very interesting to watch. I personally don't think it will behave like Nino years we think of (2002, 2006, 2009, etc.), but who knows. I'm not a clairvoyant. :lol:
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#422 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed May 31, 2023 7:43 pm

Latest CanSIPS...how we're getting this sort of output for a potentially moderate-strong El Niño is beyond me, unless SSTs and the WAM really do have this significant of an impact. October and November having low shear in the Caribbean is especially baffling.

Going to have to file this one under "doubt" for now. I'll eat my words if it somehow happens.

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#423 Postby zzzh » Wed May 31, 2023 7:47 pm

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Watch for Caribbean/MDR development later this month. Upper level wind looka very favorable.
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Putting 2005 here for comparison.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#424 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed May 31, 2023 8:08 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Latest CanSIPS...how we're getting this sort of output for a potentially moderate-strong El Niño is beyond me, unless SSTs and the WAM really do have this significant of an impact. October and November having low shear in the Caribbean is especially baffling.

Going to have to file this one under "doubt" for now. I'll eat my words if it somehow happens.

https://i.ibb.co/LzDmqcY/cansips-ashear-Mean-month-atl-3.png
https://i.ibb.co/7VJckWX/cansips-ashear-atl-fh0-5.gif
https://i.ibb.co/WVqG1T9/cansips-apcpna-multimonth-atl-3.png
https://i.ibb.co/b1vhkbW/9d972d12-d5d6-4d9c-a995-7fede500010c.gif

Here's a good Twitter thread discussing this in further detail:
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664072706629746688


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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#425 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2023 8:20 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Latest CanSIPS...how we're getting this sort of output for a potentially moderate-strong El Niño is beyond me, unless SSTs and the WAM really do have this significant of an impact. October and November having low shear in the Caribbean is especially baffling.

Going to have to file this one under "doubt" for now. I'll eat my words if it somehow happens.

https://i.ibb.co/LzDmqcY/cansips-ashear-Mean-month-atl-3.png
https://i.ibb.co/7VJckWX/cansips-ashear-atl-fh0-5.gif
https://i.ibb.co/WVqG1T9/cansips-apcpna-multimonth-atl-3.png
https://i.ibb.co/b1vhkbW/9d972d12-d5d6-4d9c-a995-7fede500010c.gif

Here's a good Twitter thread discussing this in further detail:
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664072706629746688


Andy says it all. :D

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1664076302947700739


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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#426 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 31, 2023 8:30 pm

Um hello! :eek:

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#427 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2023 8:32 pm



It was already posted by DorkyMcDorkface. :D
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#428 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 31, 2023 8:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:


It was already posted by DorkyMcDorkface. :D


I know lol.. Trying to make my way through the downcasting on social media. :roll:
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#429 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 31, 2023 8:49 pm

Given how utterly strange and unpredictable the conditions/potential associated cyclone activity are in the Atlantic currently, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see as many "season-cancel" early-season comments this year compared to last year or other previous hurricane seasons :lol:
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#430 Postby JetFuel_SE » Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:39 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Given how utterly strange and unpredictable the conditions/potential associated cyclone activity are in the Atlantic currently, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see as many "season-cancel" early-season comments this year compared to last year or other previous hurricane seasons :lol:

There were season cancel posts in 2005, there will absolutely be loads this year.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#431 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:56 am

The North Atlantic is truly in uncharted waters, at least compared to the last 40 years. It remains to be see if these anomalies can persist, but it’s effectively been given a massive head start compared to other years. ENSO should limit the ceiling, but we’ll see how much…

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1664100967053230080


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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#432 Postby NDG » Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:58 am

Very good discussion on Twitter about CANSIPS, UKMET and Euro's aggressive Atlantic forecast, in which many say including me that 2023 will be a class of its own despite a +ENSO.
Look at what happened last year, despite a -ENSO the MDR was dead and the EPAC season was busier than the Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1664072706629746688


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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#433 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2023 10:19 am

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#434 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Jun 01, 2023 11:14 am

This might sound a little silly, but the first day of the season almost seems like the beginning of the "moment of truth." I mean, we've had months of discussion and predictions of what the season might be like, and now it's time to see how it will all actually turn out.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#435 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Jun 01, 2023 11:52 am

In January 2023: Let's wait until March/April to get a sense of what might happen. El Nino may occur in the peak season, leading to a slower 2023 in the atlantic

In April: Let's wait for May/June to see what happens, things still aren't aligned here for an good prediction about the season, since we have an warm atlantic but also warm pacific... But the El Nino conditions will likely win

In June: Let's wait a little longer... There's still an significant uncertainity about what can happen in August/September, since the El Nino still on the way but the Atlantic still warming even more!

August: why we're still trying to predict this?
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#436 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:54 am

Indicators continue to point at a generally quiet Caribbean and Gulf with struggling systems due to strong wind shear because of El Niño. Generally because it is still possible something of significance could form or move through those regions but chances should be considerably lower than the average year. The Central and Far Eastern Atlantic (and even SW Atlantic) might be able to produce some big storms due to higher than normal SSTs there, however, if any move into the Caribbean, they should find hostile conditions.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#437 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:14 am

Did a good mention of Storm2K in my video today. Always impressed at the level of quality posts and discussion here!



Link: https://youtu.be/bvq2Ao9KgfU
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#438 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:05 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:In January 2023: Let's wait until March/April to get a sense of what might happen. El Nino may occur in the peak season, leading to a slower 2023 in the atlantic

In April: Let's wait for May/June to see what happens, things still aren't aligned here for an good prediction about the season, since we have an warm atlantic but also warm pacific... But the El Nino conditions will likely win

In June: Let's wait a little longer... There's still an significant uncertainity about what can happen in August/September, since the El Nino still on the way but the Atlantic still warming even more!

August: why we're still trying to predict this?


I pretty much always think that until Aug 15th you can really never be sure of very much
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#439 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:10 pm

I still think that warmth in Nino region 1+2 is going to skew the pressure pattern off of what one would expect in a "typical" El Nino year (if it maintains) That would pull the rising motion to the east.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#440 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:12 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:In January 2023: Let's wait until March/April to get a sense of what might happen. El Nino may occur in the peak season, leading to a slower 2023 in the atlantic

In April: Let's wait for May/June to see what happens, things still aren't aligned here for an good prediction about the season, since we have an warm atlantic but also warm pacific... But the El Nino conditions will likely win

In June: Let's wait a little longer... There's still an significant uncertainity about what can happen in August/September, since the El Nino still on the way but the Atlantic still warming even more!

August: why we're still trying to predict this?


I pretty much always think that until Aug 15th you can really never be sure of very much

Or, in the case of last year, until September 15th (around when Fiona formed)
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