2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Hurricane2022]

Unprecedented warmup.

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1666883057041944576

https://i.postimg.cc/kgnV28Hs/sst.png

I mean, if wasn't El Nino here i'm 90 - 99% certain that 2023 would be the most active NATL season on record, surpassing 2020/2005 in TC numbers and 1933 in ACE points, not just because that waters are severely warm already in June.

.....We're VERY lucky for not having an Niña today.

[Teban54]

https://imgur.com/cjxj5Bq

https://imgur.com/yhr5PWI

Unprecedented warmup.

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1666883057041944576

https://i.postimg.cc/kgnV28Hs/sst.png

I mean, if wasn't El Nino here i'm 90 - 99% certain that 2023 would be the most active NATL season on record, surpassing 2020/2005 in TC numbers and 1933 in ACE points, not just because that waters are severely warm already in June.

.....We're VERY lucky for not having an Niña today.

FWIW, SSTs alone don't dictate seasonal activity. 2010 had the #1 or #2 warmest Atlantic MDR SSTAs on record and had a developing La Nina, yet the season "barely" reached hyperactive ACE threshold, falling well behind 2004 and 2005 in ACE, and behind 2005 and 2020 in storm counts.

[zzzh]

https://imgur.com/cjxj5Bq

https://imgur.com/yhr5PWI

2023 has a decent meridional SST gradient, unlike years like 2021 where 26C went from 15N to 30N.
Instability will definitely be favored in the deep tropics this year.

[Blown Away]

CFS

NMME

Conditions near the NE Caribbean, Bahamas, and CONUS dry out moving into September. July & August may be this seasons active months which would be typical for a Nino year. SFL's action during Nino years tends to be in August. JMHO

[SFLcane]

The longer we go without seeing trade winds increase in the Atlantic, the more concerning it becomes for later hurricane season activity. It’s something we’ll be following closely in the months ahead.

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/el ... an-it-tame

[Stormybajan]

A motnh ago, April 28th I said 2023 was trailing 2005 and a distance behind 2010, welp in terms of EAST ATLANTIC Heat 10N-20N from 20W-60W...I think we have to crown a new champion!! There is a 3 DEGREE above average warmpool in the 30W-40W area...INSANE!!! . Idk what this season will bring but if its anything below my 13-6-2 prediction ill be SHOCKED. Even if this season isnt active...all the more fuel for next season when Nino is no more

[cycloneye]

Tracks since 1950 with moderate to strong El NIños.

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1667198888460144640




 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1667201593744191488

[Monsoonjr99]

Could the wildfire smoke potentially cause cooling in the subtropics?

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1667521998682226690



2010 is now dethroned. In the future we will compare MDR SST with 2023

[hurricanes1234]

One week apart.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1667524207800987648

[Hypercane_Kyle]

El Nino may prevent a 2005-like season, but no doubt if a storm finds itself in a position with favorable upper-level winds, it will turn into a monster.

 https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1667571728984461312

[cycloneye]

The C3S model is .

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1667606874106253314

[SFLcane]

The C3S model is .

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1667606874106253314

If this is not an eye opener of what is to come not sure what will do. Look at the precip over the mdr!

[MarioProtVI]

El Nino may prevent a 2005-like season, but no doubt if a storm finds itself in a position with favorable upper-level winds, it will turn into a monster.

https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1667571728984461312

1969 had a moderate El Niño IIRC and that season ended up being very active.

[Category5Kaiju]

An interesting thing to note about the seasons 1899 and 1951 that are being used as analogs for this year: they both featured a major hurricane before August 20.

In fact, assuming the deep tropics/Canary Current remain warm while the subtropics remain cool, I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up alleviating some of the post-2010 early-season stability issues and allows us to see a major hurricane before bell-ringing day somewhere in the basin. This season has the potential to behave unlike many seasons a lot of us might have tracked in recent times, in other words.

[SFLcane]

Folks look at these shear forecast! Very interesting to say the least with potential tutt even displaced further north and west.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1667650300985982982

[SFLcane]

You know what those shear forecast from the Ukmet and Ecmwf deserve….

[cycloneye]

Dr Noll delivers this from UKMET/ ECM.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1667673230017200129




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1667673233251004417

[Blown Away]

Wouldn’t those extreme SST’s in N & E Atl lower pressures in that area and possibly displace HP farther W and possibly steer systems in W Atl farther W??