2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Category5Kaiju]

The March ECMWF seasonal is out (and it goes through JAS). It does show El Nino conditions, but basin-wide warmth in the Atlantic. This seems to be a trend in the climate models, if it verifies the basin-wide warmth could cancel out some of the El Nino effects. It shows above-normal pressures in the tropical Atlantic and below-normal precipitation, but nothing that would go as far to say "season cancel." Through the end of September, the ECMWF calls for 90% of normal ACE in the Atlantic, with 10.7 tropical storms and 5.1 hurricanes. In the past, this model significantly underestimated Atlantic activity, but it seems the bias may have been over-corrected, as last year it was way too high with Atlantic activity.

Nino 3.4 plume
https://i.imgur.com/vBNREsz.png

SST anomaly
https://i.imgur.com/jZc3c5G.png

Precipitation anomaly
https://i.imgur.com/lU3QMR6.png

MSLP anomaly tercile
https://i.imgur.com/inJc119.png

Atlantic ACE (90% of normal through September - sounds about right since El Nino seasons often end earlier).
https://i.imgur.com/lubqiI3.png

Tropical storms (10.7 through the end of September)
https://i.imgur.com/aEQU9Gg.png

Hurricanes (5.1 through the end of September)
https://i.imgur.com/RbRAvxW.png

It's kind of funny to see that the Atlantic has arguably the most favorable sst anomaly profile since 2020 (where the deep tropics are above average and a warm Canary Current already in place as iirc 2021 and 2022 were not as warm at this point in time), in a year that is expected to enter +ENSO territory rather than La Nina. Very curious to see what activity will look like assuming there is robust warmth in the basin by ASO. I agree, unlike many of the recent El Nino years (this also include 2018 for that matter), the Atlantic is starting off very strong and healthy with its sst anomalies, and if this holds we could potentially see a season more active than expected.

I can assure you that if we were in a first year La Nina with this warmth, we could potentially see a hyperactive season. El Nino or warm neutral might press the brakes a bit thankfully.

[SFLcane]

Hi guys, don’t let this El Niño talk lull you to sleep it might be a little slower year but it says nothing were they might track. I lived through it in 92. For example Seven storms could form and 2-3 could slam into the Conus.

[NotSparta]

Hi guys, don’t let this El Niño talk lull you to sleep it might be a little slower year but it says nothing were they might track. I lived through it in 92. For example Seven storms could form and 2-3 could slam into the Conus.

1992 was a cool neutral year

[SFLcane]

Hi guys, don’t let this El Niño talk lull you to sleep it might be a little slower year but it says nothing were they might track. I lived through it in 92. For example Seven storms could form and 2-3 could slam into the Conus.

1992 was a cool neutral year

Enso was not the point lol i was referring to slow years such as 2023 which could potentially be one.

[mixedDanilo.E]

The March ECMWF seasonal is out (and it goes through JAS). It does show El Nino conditions, but basin-wide warmth in the Atlantic. This seems to be a trend in the climate models, if it verifies the basin-wide warmth could cancel out some of the El Nino effects. It shows above-normal pressures in the tropical Atlantic and below-normal precipitation, but nothing that would go as far to say "season cancel." Through the end of September, the ECMWF calls for 90% of normal ACE in the Atlantic, with 10.7 tropical storms and 5.1 hurricanes. In the past, this model significantly underestimated Atlantic activity, but it seems the bias may have been over-corrected, as last year it was way too high with Atlantic activity.

Nino 3.4 plume
https://i.imgur.com/vBNREsz.png

SST anomaly
https://i.imgur.com/jZc3c5G.png

Precipitation anomaly
https://i.imgur.com/lU3QMR6.png

MSLP anomaly tercile
https://i.imgur.com/inJc119.png

Atlantic ACE (90% of normal through September - sounds about right since El Nino seasons often end earlier).
https://i.imgur.com/lubqiI3.png

Tropical storms (10.7 through the end of September)
https://i.imgur.com/aEQU9Gg.png

Hurricanes (5.1 through the end of September)
https://i.imgur.com/RbRAvxW.png

It's kind of funny to see that the Atlantic has arguably the most favorable sst anomaly profile since 2020 (where the deep tropics are above average and a warm Canary Current already in place as iirc 2021 and 2022 were not as warm at this point in time), in a year that is expected to enter +ENSO territory rather than La Nina. Very curious to see what activity will look like assuming there is robust warmth in the basin by ASO. I agree, unlike many of the recent El Nino years (this also include 2018 for that matter), the Atlantic is starting off very strong and healthy with its sst anomalies, and if this holds we could potentially see a season more active than expected.

I can assure you that if we were in a first year La Nina with this warmth, we could potentially see a hyperactive season. El Nino or warm neutral might press the brakes a bit thankfully.

MDR has been warming up quite significantly in the last week or so and has begun to gain that +AMO look once again. CFS weeklies has the weaker trades lasting general through the entire forecast period in the atlantic and advancing some too deeper into April. If it's right, I'd even watch if this years ends up being warm neutral still or weak el nino for it to be much more active than some people may be thinking. Above normal and even hyperactive seasons are possible during El Nino's and it's happened in the past. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Category5Kaiju]

Aside from the absurd basin warmth in the Atlantic currently, there is another key point that I would like to point out that might come in handy to know as we enter the hurricane season in the coming months (and, especially, if we do indeed get an El Nino).

The general idea behind people saying how El Ninos shut down the Atlantic because of high wind shear is definitely true and not without merit. However, especially as we saw last year, I wouldn't necessarily call wind shear alone as anything close to being an automatic deathblow for any potential TCs. While it may limit the number of storms in general, storms like Ian (and Michael back in 2018) could become shear-resistant and still grow to very powerful strengths. I would argue that mid-level dry air is probably an even greater limiting factor for activity than wind shear; as we saw last year, you can have lengthy periods of time with low wind shear but high mid-level dry air levels, and this is enough to literally prevent named storms from forming.

It's also kind of amusing to see how at least in recent times, the two years with notable mid-level dry air issues/wave-breaking, 2013 and 2022, were not +ENSO years.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Aside from the absurd basin warmth in the Atlantic currently, there is another key point that I would like to point out that might come in handy to know as we enter the hurricane season in the coming months (and, especially, if we do indeed get an El Nino).

The general idea behind people saying how El Ninos shut down the Atlantic because of high wind shear is definitely true and not without merit. However, especially as we saw last year, I wouldn't necessarily call wind shear alone as anything close to being an automatic deathblow for any potential TCs. While it may limit the number of storms in general, storms like Ian (and Michael back in 2018) could become shear-resistant and still grow to very powerful strengths. I would argue that mid-level dry air is probably an even greater limiting factor for activity than wind shear; as we saw last year, you can have lengthy periods of time with low wind shear but high mid-level dry air levels, and this is enough to literally prevent named storms from forming.

It's also kind of amusing to see how at least in recent times, the two years with notable mid-level dry air issues/wave-breaking, 2013 and 2022, were not +ENSO years.

I was looking back at pre-season talks from 2017 and levi cowan had a map showing the different years and their comparison of temp of the ENSO and the temp of the anomalies of the MDR. He mentioned that the seasons that have greatest spread are +ENSO years that have warm MDRs. I think that's something to really consider this year as well.

[cycloneye]

The jury is still out on how the 2023 season will play out with the growing chance of having El Niño for ASO.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1633833750550446083

[SFLcane]

The jury is still out on how the 2023 season will play out with the growing chance of having El Niño for ASO.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1633833750550446083

Hi luis, El nino, Neutral, La nina says nothing on were this years storms will travel everyone should prepare the same regardless of the numbers predicted. Can't stress this enough some of the most nasty hurricanes have hit the Conus during slow years.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm genuinely curious to see how this affects future Atlantic activity (assuming we do indeed get an El Nino but also have this warm sst anomaly profile persist into the late summer). I cannot seem to find an El Nino year, at least since 1995, that had this level of Atlantic warmth by this time of the year.

[mixedDanilo.E]

I'm genuinely curious to see how this affects future Atlantic activity (assuming we do indeed get an El Nino but also have this warm sst anomaly profile persist into the late summer). I cannot seem to find an El Nino year, at least since 1995, that had this level of Atlantic warmth by this time of the year.

https://i.imgur.com/yNCcSuN.png

It's also been the warmest this time of year in the Atlantic since 2020.

[JetFuel_SE]

Aside from the absurd basin warmth in the Atlantic currently, there is another key point that I would like to point out that might come in handy to know as we enter the hurricane season in the coming months (and, especially, if we do indeed get an El Nino).

The general idea behind people saying how El Ninos shut down the Atlantic because of high wind shear is definitely true and not without merit. However, especially as we saw last year, I wouldn't necessarily call wind shear alone as anything close to being an automatic deathblow for any potential TCs. While it may limit the number of storms in general, storms like Ian (and Michael back in 2018) could become shear-resistant and still grow to very powerful strengths. I would argue that mid-level dry air is probably an even greater limiting factor for activity than wind shear; as we saw last year, you can have lengthy periods of time with low wind shear but high mid-level dry air levels, and this is enough to literally prevent named storms from forming.

It's also kind of amusing to see how at least in recent times, the two years with notable mid-level dry air issues/wave-breaking, 2013 and 2022, were not +ENSO years.

Models consistently got bad data, and thus overestimated how much shear there was.
Source: Bottom of page 12 and top of page 13 of Michael's TCR

[cycloneye]

El Niño may come but the waters are very warm in GOM, subtropics and in parts of MDR.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1636369567789268992

[Category5Kaiju]

El Niño may come but the waters are very warm in GOM, subtropics and in parts of MDR.

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1636369567789268992

Thanks for sharing that cycloneye! It is going to be very interesting to see how +ENSO (potential El Nino) will evolve, but also the Atlantic sst anomalies. If something like that holds for the next few months going into summer, then I'd be interested to see if that actually could frontload this season, rather than backload it.

[InfernoFlameCat]

GOM temp is not a reliable predictor of Atlantic activity. However, severe weather on the other hand I don’t know. I would think yes, it would increase instability, but I’m not sure.

[JetFuel_SE]

GOM temp is not a reliable predictor of Atlantic activity. However, severe weather on the other hand I don’t know. I would think yes, it would increase instability, but I’m not sure.

If the anomalies do hold, that would however have implications on the potential intensity of systems that track there.

[Steve]

Too early but almost a south displaced southern Atlantic El Niño look. Warm over cold over warm in the Atlantic last few runs. Probably won’t be the profile by summer, but for now

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[WalterWhite]

As of now, it appears as if the Atlantic is going to take a break this season. We have still not passed the spring predictability barrier, but historically, 4-year La Ninas are very rare. With the odds in favor of an El Nino this year (one where the Pacific is warmer than the Atlantic), this hurricane season will likely be quieter than previous ones. The Atlantic basin was warmer-than-average the past few years and will likely continue to be so, but a very warm equatorial Pacific will create sinking air over the Atlantic, suppressing activity.

If we get a 4th-year La Nina, the equation will certainly change, and an above-average season would be favored; but given the expected El Nino, we will likely have a below-average season this year.







Although, a small part of me questions whether or not conditions matter all that much. The fact that 2022 was less active than 2018 and 2019 even though 2022 had a more favorable SST pattern than either of those years makes me question how much of activity is luck-based. (good luck = inactive; bad luck = active)

[Category5Kaiju]

As of now, it appears as if the Atlantic is going to take a break this season. We have still not passed the spring predictability barrier, but historically, 4-year La Ninas are very rare. With the odds in favor of an El Nino this year (one where the Pacific is warmer than the Atlantic), this hurricane season will likely be quieter than previous ones. The Atlantic basin was warmer-than-average the past few years and will likely continue to be so, but a very warm equatorial Pacific will create sinking air over the Atlantic, suppressing activity.

If we get a 4th-year La Nina, the equation will certainly change, and an above-average season would be favored; but given the expected El Nino, we will likely have a below-average season this year.

https://i.postimg.cc/MH8F1RYT/cfs-mon-01-ssta-Mean-month-global-5.png

https://i.postimg.cc/SR7tdsZG/nino34-Sea.png

https://i.postimg.cc/m2BnDYDp/ps2png-worker-commands-74fc64594-vfb65-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-g8p-C.png

Although, a small part of me questions whether or not conditions matter all that much. The fact that 2022 was less active than 2018 and 2019 even though 2022 had a more favorable SST pattern than either of those years makes me question how much of activity is luck-based. (good luck = inactive; bad luck = active)

There's actually speculation that 2022's third year La Nina status caused it to underperform substantially (aside from the horrific disasters caused by Fiona and Ian). Although not a huge sample size, the past recorded years since 1950 that were third year La Nina or -ENSO events have tended to do worse ACE-wise compared to the previous two La Nina/-ENSO years. Exactly why is not really well understood, but given this observed phenomenon, there could reasonably be something said about how La Ninas can "run out of gas." Hence, a hypothetical fourth year La Nina may not actually be that promising for above average activity.

Now shifting our focus to El Nino years, it is important to point out the distinction between "quiet season" and "impactless season." El Ninos do tend to reduce overall Atlantic activity, but you can still have an El Nino year that brings significant impacts. Betsy (1965), David/Frederic (1979), Isidore/Lily (2002), and Florence/Michael (2018) are some of such examples. Not to mention the 1969 and 2004 seasons. With how warm the Atlantic is (a much more favorable sst profile than even 2021 and 2022 had at this point in time), assuming this holds, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if we see a storm or two end up attaining potent strengths during the hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

FYI= The Alex Boreham site is back up after some months out. I like it as it has many things to look at in real time like these.





https://cyclonicwx.com/