2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

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cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#381 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 16, 2023 8:18 pm

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#382 Postby NDG » Tue May 16, 2023 8:39 pm

:uarrow: Unless the Atlantic changes as we get closer to the heart of the hurricane season I keep saying that this season will be for the records. Like for example last year the EPAC outperformed more than expected despite a La Nina year, perhaps the Atlantic may do something similar this year.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#383 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 17, 2023 10:04 am

Very toasty MDR with +3C anomalies in Eastern Atlantic right now but the question is if it will sustain for the next few weeks. The 15 days change looks cooler at the canary current and parts of MDR.

Image


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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#384 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 17, 2023 10:11 am

cycloneye wrote:Very toasty MDR with +3C anomalies in Eastern Atlantic right now but the question is if it will sustain for the next few weeks. The 15 days change looks cooler at the canary current and parts of MDR.

https://i.imgur.com/3MwoJyw.png


https://i.imgur.com/0xFDek2.png


Lol the eastern Atl "has not" cooled to that point the problem is there are so many sst maps now a days it's honestly become a joke of sorts. To each there own
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#385 Postby dexterlabio » Wed May 17, 2023 10:40 am

^That's what the labels are for :lol: Each map has its own purpose but sadly people would choose the wrong map to make their interpretations.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#386 Postby zzzh » Wed May 17, 2023 7:47 pm

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1658802435337469952



Such a dominating Africa standing wave. The huge +amo is likely responsible for this.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#387 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Thu May 18, 2023 6:22 am

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1659042119833604097




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1659042576500924418




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1659144718607843329




The door is still open for a more active Atlantic hurricane season. One thing to note is how especially warm the Atlantic is right now which the plots show hasn't happened in contrast with a moderate or warmer el nino (this assumes that this level warmth holds until September).
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#389 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Thu May 18, 2023 8:08 pm

2015 hurricane season was already woke in the eastern pacific at this point… I don’t see any signs of it waking up in the near future… I know that early season activity doesn’t correlate to overall activity but I feel that’s more for the Atlantic
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#390 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 18, 2023 8:43 pm

Deshaunrob17 wrote:2015 hurricane season was already woke in the eastern pacific at this point… I don’t see any signs of it waking up in the near future… I know that early season activity doesn’t correlate to overall activity but I feel that’s more for the Atlantic


Except 2015 didn’t see its first storm until 10 days from now and the high intraseasonal variability of the basin makes it hard for a small stretch (say 3-5 weeks) of the season to be a strong indicator of how the rest of the season will play out.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#391 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 19, 2023 7:43 am

Image

Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#392 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri May 19, 2023 9:38 pm

There are still more unknowns than certainties about how the 2023 season will pan out. However, what's for sure is the weaker the El Nino and the later it kicks in, the higher the potential for more activity with all else being equal.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#393 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri May 19, 2023 9:58 pm

2023 vs 2017 - Ocean Heat Content
Image
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 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1659756173338222592


:eek:
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#394 Postby zzzh » Fri May 19, 2023 11:28 pm

Image
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Image
The MDR will only get warmer with all the westerlies. However, with a strong Atlantic ridge, the strong pressure gradient off the coast of Portugal will induce strong trades and cool off the Canary Current. That displaced ridge also allows troughs digging into the deep tropics, causing upper westerlies and strong shear.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#395 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 20, 2023 3:41 pm

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#396 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 20, 2023 4:04 pm




Time for the 2 dozen tweets how the precip means everything out to sea. Cant make that assumption
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#397 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 23, 2023 8:05 am

I know this is mostly concerning ENSO and probably not in the right thread but i think this cooling will have implications on the Atlantic season surely in my opinion. El nino is in no hurry

Image
Last edited by SFLcane on Tue May 23, 2023 8:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#398 Postby Steve » Tue May 23, 2023 8:16 am

SFLcane wrote:



Time for the 2 dozen tweets how the precip means everything out to sea. Cant make that assumption


Most likely not everything, but there are indications that the majority of tracks would/could/should be offshore of the US East Coast. Many of the analogs from the more trusted seasonal forecasts do include beast-systems from the past. So no guards should be let down and in particularly people in FL/Bahamas, Bermuda and US East Coast should be ready. We'll see how the water temperature profiles look in the summer and whether or not some of the water in the NW Atlantic that has been anomalously warm over most of the last several years but is cool this year reverses. Also SSTA's off the SEUS coast matter as far as potential ridging over top.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#399 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 23, 2023 9:26 am

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#400 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 23, 2023 12:28 pm

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