2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[weeniepatrol]

h/t alex boreham

I know it's not what anyone wants to hear but MDR is about to become the warmest in history.

[galaxy401]

Doesn't SAL usually peak in July when the wave train really gets going?

SAL outbreaks tend to peak from June until August. There can be strong outbreaks even in mid August.

[Iceresistance]

h/t alex boreham

I know it's not what anyone wants to hear but MDR is about to become the warmest in history.

https://i.imgur.com/cYU0WXA.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/xTGLZgE.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/19idGpB.jpg

The Caribbean is crazy warm too.

[mixedDanilo.E]

h/t alex boreham

I know it's not what anyone wants to hear but MDR is about to become the warmest in history.

https://i.imgur.com/cYU0WXA.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/xTGLZgE.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/19idGpB.jpg

we're so much warmer than 2017 it's kinda funny to see. We are also so much warmer in the eastern atlantic than both 2005, 2010 but to give credit, they both had cooler subtropics than this year. Still this is truly insane how much warmer we are.

[cycloneye]

The clash of the titans comming soon.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1666120939732447241

[cycloneye]

This is message I made on Twitter in spanish so here is the traduction.

It is impressive how the waters in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans continue to warm up and everything seems that a situation is going to occur that has not happened much and it is a strong El Niño vs. a very hot Atlantic. Experts have been talking about this and find it intriguing.

It has not been easy for NOAA, CSU, etc. to make forecasts based on what is happening and therefore, they see average activity in the Atlantic that if it were not for those warm waters, they would be below normal with El Niño.

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1666141455704793088




 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1666141458003361794

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1666210099868893184

[weeniepatrol]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1666210099868893184

Good. Trades have been generally gentle to moderate for far too long.

[toad strangler]

[DorkyMcDorkface]

May NMME:

[SFLcane]

Watch out SFL... NMME

[cycloneye]

Watch out SFL... NMME

https://i.postimg.cc/hjPTTFXf/ddd.png

And also the NE Caribbean islands.

[SFLcane]

Watch out SFL... NMME

https://i.postimg.cc/hjPTTFXf/ddd.png

And also the NE Caribbean islands.

Yes sir!

[SFLcane]

Were is wxman57 i would certainly like to here his thoughts?

[WiscoWx02]

Looked at the tropics for the first time in a LONG time today and GOOD GRIEF
What is peculiar to me is why the CFS, CANSIPS and clearly the NMME as well are all so conservative with the amount of shear and bullish with the precipitation anomalies despite a higher end El Nino. Is the anomalous warmth in the Atlantic enough to almost completely ward off many of the negative effects El Nino typically pushes onto the Atlantic such as shear? Generally curious if that is even possible?
What I do know is that these are uncharted waters for me (haha) and I really don't know what to think at this point.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Apologies for the 100000th SST map post this week but I think we may have just eclipsed 2010. Like...

[weeniepatrol]

[OuterBanker]

https://i.imgur.com/2s7xInv.gif

Wow, that chart indicates that we are now at ASO sst temps.

[zzzh]

I'd be careful using that chart.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Doesn't SAL usually peak in July when the wave train really gets going?

SAL peaks in mid June.

From NOAA

Saharan Air Layer outbreaks usually occupy a 2 to 2.5-mile-thick layer of the atmosphere with the base starting about 1 mile above the surface. Saharan Air Layer activity usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late June to mid-August, and begins to rapidly subside after mid-August.

The middle point would be July, but it can peak during any of the above quoted dates.