2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#441 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:55 pm

Interesting to note that the Atlantic is already beating the EPAC by 2 storms thus far this year. Not an extremely common thing to see the Atlantic this far ahead by the very start of its official hurricane season.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#442 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri Jun 02, 2023 3:45 pm

Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.


Link: https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#443 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jun 02, 2023 5:47 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY


Very interesting to see 1951 being used as an analog year. One could only imagine what a 1951-like year would look like in our modern-day environment
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#444 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2023 6:05 pm

Here is Mark Sudduth's 22:53 long video about the 2023 hurricane season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvq2Ao9KgfU
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#445 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jun 02, 2023 7:10 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY


Very interesting to see 1951 being used as an analog year. One could only imagine what a 1951-like year would look like in our modern-day environment

Interestingly 1951 did not see overly strong trades, and I believe that 2023 currently has a warmer Atlantic than 1951. I don't think people are taking the cold PDO in to account enough in conjunction with the El Niño. It is going to confine the northern reach of the warmth. I had looked for years similar to this one and couldn't find one
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#446 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:16 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY



Even considering the different time period and climatology, we're going into this season with a more favorable sst configuration than the one shown for 1951 by Levi. It's going to be interesting to see if conventional wisdom prevails and the Atlantic is largely shut down by El Nino, or if we're going to see something anomalous occur. Models do hint to a more favorable Atlantic despite depicting a moderate/strong El Nino occurring by fall.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#447 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 03, 2023 7:02 am

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#448 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 03, 2023 7:04 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY


Great discussion by Dr Levi, 1951 could very well be the best analog year for 2023. So UKMET & Euro forecasts may not be so crazy after all.
Take into effect that SSTs across the Atlantic MDR are warmer due to rising temps will no doubt make me think that this year could be even busier than 1951.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#449 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:45 am

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#450 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jun 03, 2023 11:29 am

I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#451 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 03, 2023 11:40 am

CyclonicFury wrote:I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.


Hyperactive season?
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#452 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jun 03, 2023 11:45 am

cycloneye wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.


Hyperactive season?

The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the Atlantic is commonly associated with hyperactive seasons. However, I doubt 2023 comes anywhere close to the hyperactive threshold because of El Nino. I went with 100 ACE as a prediction, but the uncertainty seems much higher than usual. Models such as the CanSIPS showing low shear in the Caribbean only adds more uncertainty to the question.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#453 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jun 03, 2023 1:10 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.


Hyperactive season?

The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the Atlantic is commonly associated with hyperactive seasons. However, I doubt 2023 comes anywhere close to the hyperactive threshold because of El Nino. I went with 100 ACE as a prediction, but the uncertainty seems much higher than usual. Models such as the CanSIPS showing low shear in the Caribbean only adds more uncertainty to the question.


The MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf have cooled off a decent amount the past few days.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#454 Postby TROPICALCYCLONEALERT » Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:05 pm

Not going to bother copying and pasting the contents of the PDF here because it’ll take up a lot of space, but here are my thoughts on the season:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YcaTbv ... sp=sharing
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#455 Postby Teban54 » Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:21 pm


Question: It looks like compared to 1-2 months ago, the current Atlantic SSTA pattern has transformed from a classic +AMO horseshoe to an "all warm" pattern, with waters ESE of the Carolinas being the most notable. Could this hamper seasonal activity by creating more shear over MDR?
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#456 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 03, 2023 6:06 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.


Hyperactive season?

The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the Atlantic is commonly associated with hyperactive seasons. However, I doubt 2023 comes anywhere close to the hyperactive threshold because of El Nino. I went with 100 ACE as a prediction, but the uncertainty seems much higher than usual. Models such as the CanSIPS showing low shear in the Caribbean only adds more uncertainty to the question.

I personally don’t buy the low Caribbean shear forecasts. It just seems too unbelievable for a solid El Niño year. I still think this year’s storm formation and track hotspots will be comparable to 2018: a dead and hostile Caribbean/western MDR, with a relatively active subtropics and eastern MDR.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#457 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:05 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Hyperactive season?

The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the Atlantic is commonly associated with hyperactive seasons. However, I doubt 2023 comes anywhere close to the hyperactive threshold because of El Nino. I went with 100 ACE as a prediction, but the uncertainty seems much higher than usual. Models such as the CanSIPS showing low shear in the Caribbean only adds more uncertainty to the question.


The MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf have cooled off a decent amount the past few days.


But overall still remain well above average and forecasted to stay above average through at least September.

Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#458 Postby LarryWx » Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:25 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think 2023 is going to be an interesting case study to see how much ENSO can suppress the Atlantic on its own. Pretty much every other indicator supports a well above average to hyperactive season.


Hyperactive season?

The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the Atlantic is commonly associated with hyperactive seasons. However, I doubt 2023 comes anywhere close to the hyperactive threshold because of El Nino. I went with 100 ACE as a prediction, but the uncertainty seems much higher than usual. Models such as the CanSIPS showing low shear in the Caribbean only adds more uncertainty to the question.


Thanks. Models often have a lot of trouble forecasting shear just one week out, much less a few months. I'd like to know how well prior seasonal forecasts released in June for Aug-Sep Caribbean shear have done for El Niño as well as other seasons. Does anyone know?
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#459 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 03, 2023 11:58 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dr. Levi Cowan recently uploaded a video containing his thoughts regarding this year's season. Skip to around 4:36.
https://youtu.be/s7mNmx7wTkY


Very interesting to see 1951 being used as an analog year. One could only imagine what a 1951-like year would look like in our modern-day environment

Interestingly 1951 did not see overly strong trades, and I believe that 2023 currently has a warmer Atlantic than 1951. I don't think people are taking the cold PDO in to account enough in conjunction with the El Niño. It is going to confine the northern reach of the warmth. I had looked for years similar to this one and couldn't find one


Not necessarily. We’ve had plenty of +ENSO/-PDO years where westerly anomalous flow covered the MDR west of 50W or so. I can plot if asked.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#460 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 04, 2023 12:05 am

Teban54 wrote:

Question: It looks like compared to 1-2 months ago, the current Atlantic SSTA pattern has transformed from a classic +AMO horseshoe to an "all warm" pattern, with waters ESE of the Carolinas being the most notable. Could this hamper seasonal activity by creating more shear over MDR?


The incoming -NAO will return us much closer to the classical look maybe a little displaced to the north. Time is tuning out for the current look to fade as the extratropical storm track retreats northward for the summer, reducing its relevance on the SST configuration. It is possible if Africa is drier the warmth tappers off a bit (this was very common in the 1960s which featured -NAO that led to some impressive +AMO configurations during wintertime) but given the positive feedbacks associated with warm +SSTA’s I have my reservations.
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