2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
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- Hurricane2022
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Webb says 1899 as the closest analog to 2023.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665412939556458496
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665417704759521282
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665418363105886213
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665412939556458496
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665417704759521282
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665418363105886213
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
The replies to Webbs thread on twitter are very interesting.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665432441157300226
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665417403939934208
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665419693182849029
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654111135673765888
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665421553788497921
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665417403939934208
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665432441157300226
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665417403939934208
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665419693182849029
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654111135673765888
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665421553788497921
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665417403939934208
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
cycloneye wrote:The replies to Webbs thread on twitter are very interesting.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665432441157300226
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665417403939934208
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665419693182849029
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654111135673765888
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665421553788497921
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665417403939934208
I find it especially fascinating that the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane on record occurred during a robust El Nino year
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- Hurricane2022
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665453506415738880
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665453508806471683
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665453508806471683
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
- SFLcane
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
1899 surely makes me nervous being in South Florida. We shall see
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Look what is in MDR and is not a strong wave. Let's see how much this factor affects the season in terms of more or less formations.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
cycloneye wrote:Look what is in MDR and is not a strong wave. Let's see how much this factor affects the season in terms of more or less formations.
https://i.imgur.com/WS0EOdY.jpg
The SAL usually peaks around this time every year, not surprising. Should die down in August for peak season like it normally does
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
ECMWF's updated June Seasonal forecast came out today, it continues with its forecast of a 40% above average for the Atlantic, is not backing down.
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1665695658974629888
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1665695658974629888
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Interesting Tweet by Eric Webb with his analog years, the Gulf Coast may not get a break this year if the average between these years come to fruition.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665703965575757832
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1665703965575757832
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Unreal how warm the Canary Current is this year. Made some composites to compare the general look we've had over the spring (MAM) with some of the years he mentioned which featured favorable configurations in the Atlantic during the same trimonthly timeframe, and you can see just how much the Canary Current has really stuck out.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
cycloneye wrote:Look what is in MDR and is not a strong wave. Let's see how much this factor affects the season in terms of more or less formations.
https://i.imgur.com/WS0EOdY.jpg
Those colors stand out on that map but in reality that isn't much of an SAL layer if at all. Michael Lowry (Hurricane Specialist for WPLG-TV in Miami) has been talking about the LACK of SAL so far possibly being a factor in the bath water setting up out there.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
toad strangler wrote:cycloneye wrote:Look what is in MDR and is not a strong wave. Let's see how much this factor affects the season in terms of more or less formations.
https://i.imgur.com/WS0EOdY.jpg
Those colors stand out on that map but in reality that isn't much of an SAL layer if at all. Michael Lowry (Hurricane Specialist for WPLG-TV in Miami) has been talking about the LACK of SAL so far possibly being a factor in the bath water setting up out there.
Also worth mentioning that GOES imagery often overdoes SAL, which is why applaud Alex Boreham/NotSparta for resurrecting the Meteosat imagery (which is much more subdued and realistic when detecting it).
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
48 hours apart.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Doesn't SAL usually peak in July when the wave train really gets going?
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
I'm honestly in awe at this point lol
Once again had it not been for the budding El Niño (or if literally any other ENSO state was expected) this would be a slam dunk forecast for an exceptionally active season
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1665741638075834369
Once again had it not been for the budding El Niño (or if literally any other ENSO state was expected) this would be a slam dunk forecast for an exceptionally active season
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1665741638075834369
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Doesn't SAL usually peak in July when the wave train really gets going?
SAL peaks in mid June.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Got ukmet office and ecmwf forecasting 9+ hurricanes these downcasters need to find a hobby.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
SFLcane wrote:Got ukmet office and ecmwf forecasting 9+ hurricanes these downcasters need to find a hobby.
Do keep in mind there's a chance models could be overly aggressive. ECMWF SEAS5 was the most bullish it had ever been last June in forecasting an ACE value ~170% of average, yet it ended up busting by quite a bit. Not saying the same will happen here, but it's best to exercise caution given ENSO. Once again the amount of resistance the incredibly favorable NATL SSTs will provide against El Niño is crucial here. Will really be fascinating to see how this season plays out for that reason, and you can bet this will be a case study moving forward regardless of what happens, just because it's something we don't see very often.
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