2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

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SFLcane
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2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#401 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 24, 2023 10:23 am

fyi long range CFS has multiple hits on SFL one coming north from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region. ** As always take with caution**

Image

Comes north from the Caribbean..

Image
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed May 24, 2023 11:04 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#402 Postby Iceresistance » Wed May 24, 2023 10:25 am

SFLcane wrote:fyi long range CFS has muitple hits on SFL one coming norht from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region.

https://i.postimg.cc/hvGRJw82/cfs.gif


Why are we trying to forecast storms in July and August? :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#403 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 24, 2023 10:31 am

Iceresistance wrote:
SFLcane wrote:fyi long range CFS has muitple hits on SFL one coming norht from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region.

https://i.postimg.cc/hvGRJw82/cfs.gif


Why are we trying to forecast storms in July and August? :lol:


Why not that is why its called a long range model. To each there own use with caution but i find it interesting to look at.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#404 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 24, 2023 10:51 am

Didn't know were to post this but i " highly" recommend to read. WeatherTiger's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/202 ... ne-outlook
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#405 Postby AnnularCane » Wed May 24, 2023 10:53 am

Iceresistance wrote:
SFLcane wrote:fyi long range CFS has muitple hits on SFL one coming norht from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region.

https://i.postimg.cc/hvGRJw82/cfs.gif


Why are we trying to forecast storms in July and August? :lol:



Gotta keep ourselves entertained in the preseason somehow. :lol:
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#406 Postby FireRat » Wed May 24, 2023 12:37 pm

SFLcane wrote:Didn't know were to post this but i " highly" recommend to read. WeatherTiger's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/202 ... ne-outlook


Wow, awesome post indeed!
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#407 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 24, 2023 1:11 pm

That is a great and complete analysis from WeatherTiger. Adrian, this was the thread to post it.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#408 Postby SconnieCane » Wed May 24, 2023 2:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:Didn't know were to post this but i " highly" recommend to read. WeatherTiger's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/202 ... ne-outlook


Love the writing on that. The fighting/wrestling metaphors also call to mind this classic (can't get YouTube embed tags to work):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0-pHnykC9s
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#409 Postby Cpv17 » Wed May 24, 2023 4:08 pm

To sum up that article it basically just says what we already know. Expect a near normal season but maybe slightly above normal.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#410 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 24, 2023 4:49 pm

SFLcane wrote:fyi long range CFS has multiple hits on SFL one coming north from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region. ** As always take with caution**

https://i.postimg.cc/hvGRJw82/cfs.gif

Comes north from the Caribbean..

https://i.postimg.cc/pTM5fQpN/cfs44.gif


This thread is out to day 16, not day 70
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#411 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 24, 2023 4:53 pm

NotSparta wrote:
SFLcane wrote:fyi long range CFS has multiple hits on SFL one coming north from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region. ** As always take with caution**

https://i.postimg.cc/hvGRJw82/cfs.gif

Comes north from the Caribbean..

https://i.postimg.cc/pTM5fQpN/cfs44.gif


This thread is out to day 16, not day 70


Merged those posts from that thread to this one.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#412 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri May 26, 2023 10:08 am

Image

Maybe this is a sign that unlike the last two years or so, 2023 might be a generally much more favorable year for global major cyclone activity. There have already been 8 of these this year, and it's still only May. Not sure if it means anything for the Atlantic in particular, but just something to keep in mind going forward.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#414 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 27, 2023 8:40 am

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#415 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun May 28, 2023 9:03 pm

Image

Took this screenshot image just now from Google Earth; Africa's getting active...
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#416 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 30, 2023 6:14 pm

Great twitter thread 11/11 from Yellow Evan.

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1663621085395574785


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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#417 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue May 30, 2023 7:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:Great twitter thread 11/11 from Yellow Evan.

https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1663621085395574785

Really an excellent thread to understand what can be happening and what can happen. I have a forecast with a somewhat higher numbers (16/8/3 ACE 135) than there, because I still think that this anomalous (and continuous!) warming of the Atlantic could reverse some of the effects of El Niño.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#418 Postby chaser1 » Tue May 30, 2023 11:35 pm

Interestingly, there's only 24 hr.'s left for the 2023 North Atlantic Season Poll and it just seems that this year's poll having the lowest participation that I remember, suggests that a vast number of people are primarily disinterested in the 2023 season likely as a result of their severe "El Nino - Season Cancel bias".
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#419 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed May 31, 2023 1:42 am

chaser1 wrote:Interestingly, there's only 24 hr.'s left for the 2023 North Atlantic Season Poll and it just seems that this year's poll having the lowest participation that I remember, suggests that a vast number of people are primarily disinterested in the 2023 season likely as a result of their severe "El Nino - Season Cancel bias".

And then we have UKMO model, which seemingly got the Atlantic and EPAC mixed up. 306 ACE ceiling lmao
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#420 Postby chaser1 » Wed May 31, 2023 12:49 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Interestingly, there's only 24 hr.'s left for the 2023 North Atlantic Season Poll and it just seems that this year's poll having the lowest participation that I remember, suggests that a vast number of people are primarily disinterested in the 2023 season likely as a result of their severe "El Nino - Season Cancel bias".

And then we have UKMO model, which seemingly got the Atlantic and EPAC mixed up. 306 ACE ceiling lmao


Well, yeah..... and then you have "that" :double: Go figure LOL. King Kong (El Nino) vs Godzilla (+AMO) - the battle of the titans. Quite reasonably the outcome may be less of a definative "win" for either atmospheric variable, and more of quirky twist as a result of both variables (such as 20 really weak named storms, with an average life span of under 72 hours, or the Bahamas becoming this year's MDR with nearly all storm tracks off to the East & Northeast. Maybe 2023 will ultimately be more like "The Spawn of King Kong & Godzilla" :ggreen:
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