2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Category5Kaiju]

I feel decently sure that in the end, this year is going to be used as a reference year for future Storm2k discussions in future Atlantic hurricane seasons.

For instance:

"2027 is going to be an El Nino year! Expect it to be dead and inactive!"

"No no, you can't say that for sure! Remember what happened in 2023?"

[LarryWx]

I feel decently sure that in the end, this year is going to be used as a reference year for future Storm2k discussions in future Atlantic hurricane seasons.

For instance:

"2027 is going to be an El Nino year! Expect it to be dead and inactive!"

"No no, you can't say that for sure! Remember what happened in 2023?"

Another realistic possibility:

"2027 is going to have a 2023 strength El Niño (strong) and the Atlantic AMO is as of now as warm as the record warm 2023. Whereas folks had a hard time figuring out 2023 due to the same two conflicting signals, the strong El Niño in 2023 ended up the dominating factor after all with a rather inactive season. So, the best guess is for 2027 to be another typical rather inactive strong El Niño season."

[JetFuel_SE]

I feel decently sure that in the end, this year is going to be used as a reference year for future Storm2k discussions in future Atlantic hurricane seasons.

For instance:

"2027 is going to be an El Nino year! Expect it to be dead and inactive!"

"No no, you can't say that for sure! Remember what happened in 2023?"

I'm already using 1969 for just that stuff.

[Category5Kaiju]

I feel decently sure that in the end, this year is going to be used as a reference year for future Storm2k discussions in future Atlantic hurricane seasons.

For instance:

"2027 is going to be an El Nino year! Expect it to be dead and inactive!"

"No no, you can't say that for sure! Remember what happened in 2023?"

Another realistic possibility:

"2027 is going to have a 2023 strength El Niño (strong) and the Atlantic AMO is as of now as warm as the record warm 2023. Whereas folks had a hard time figuring out 2023 due to the same two conflicting signals, the strong El Niño in 2023 ended up the dominating factor after all with a rather inactive season. So, the best guess is for 2027 to be another typical rather inactive strong El Niño season."

The Legendary 2023 Battle Between the Pacific and Atlantic:

Pacific
Weapons: Moderate to Strong, east-based El Nino

Weaknesses: Negative PDO

Atlantic
Weapons: 2005/2020-level warm AMO (Canary Current and deep tropics), wet Sahel and strong WAM

Weaknesses: Moderate to Strong, east-based El Nino


Gonna be an interesting battle for sure!

[dexterlabio]

Pacific
Weapons: Moderate to Strong, east-based El Nino

Weaknesses: Negative PDO

1972 says hi

[zzzh]

[AlanSnyder35]

Models seems to be uptrending despite this nino coming on. Be interesting to see how it pans out.

[tolakram]

Maybe during this season we can look at some of these longer range models and say ... yea, these are pretty much indistinguishable from random?

[Steve]

Wild early May look to the SSTA’s as everyone has been saying. Strong El Niño coming on with a near perfect looking Atlantic with the warm over cold over warm. But it’s still early May and impossible to know what the Atlantic is going to look like in August and September. I’m not ready to walk out on any limbs, but it kind of seems like we will see a lot of fish storms this year. There could still be a couple impacts on the US if like Kaiju said , 1965 or 1969 go in the mix.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[cycloneye]

NMME. Watch in Florida, Bahamas.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1655296746396737536

[Beef Stew]

As others have said, the contrast between the +AMO and an impending (and possibly quite strong) El Niño do set up an interesting look in the Atlantic for this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a busy early season, followed by a 2021 esq shut down come late September. Overall, I’m leaning towards a fairly average season as far as the TS/H/MH count goes- but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it over-perform in terms of ACE, given that the configuration could support a Sam-type system (or multiple) in the open Atlantic. I’ll be very curious to read NOAA’s upcoming forecast.

[cycloneye]

Still think the Niño will ultimately win out in the end but there is a decent chance that the basin could still put up respectable numbers (or at least more respectable than what we typically see during these events). I've said this before but the eastern and central MDR have the potential to be relatively hospitable if TWs can get going early on (especially if aided by well-timed CCKW/MJO passage). 55W and beyond should be where storms will start encountering problems with shear the further W they track, and the Caribbean should be off-limits as is typical with El Niños, but I guess that goes without saying.

Agree completely, if this nino were going super we could probably expect a standing wave over the Epac that just nukes the Atlantic but with a lesser amplitude and this prolific Atlantic warmth, intraseasonal forcing should be able to make its way through providing windows of development. 3-4 majors is definitely possible. NOAA forecast should be soon.

May 11.

On May 11, comes the monthly update from CPC of ENSO. They always release it between weeks 2 -3 of May on Thursdays. It looks like this year, the date will be May 18th. NOAA will have a heads up a few days before the release.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I've been especially noticing people talking about it on social media recently, but some are strongly claiming that this year is going to be a "fish storm" year and how El Ninos are exclusively "recurve" years. But are we necessarily sure about that applying to this year too?

There are many examples that I can find with La Ninas featuring strong fish storms (1995, 1999, 2000, 2010, 2011, and 2021 for instance). On the other hand, we have storms like the 1899 hurricane, 1951's Charlie, 1963's Flora, and 1965's Betsy that ended up hitting land at major strength even during an El Nino. Now granted, I see the examples of 2009's Bill and 2014's Gonzalo being discussed, but interestingly, 2009-2014 seemed to feature many recurves in general, El Nino or La Nina.

Just something I felt would be intriguing to point out.

[cycloneye]

No surprise.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1655540492468199429

[AlanSnyder35]

No surprise.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1655540492468199429

It will warm again here starting tomorrow. westerlies are forecast for nearly the next 10 days. Plus Natural warming will start as well soon.

[NotSparta]

No surprise.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1655540492468199429

It will warm again here starting tomorrow. westerlies are forecast for nearly the next 10 days. Plus Natural warming will start as well soon.

What is "natural warming"?

[AlanSnyder35]

No surprise.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1655540492468199429

It will warm again here starting tomorrow. westerlies are forecast for nearly the next 10 days. Plus Natural warming will start as well soon.

What is "natural warming"?

Does it not warm A LITTLE from the Sun Angle as we head farther into Summer ? do believe that is a thing. Obviously somebody an correct me if i'm wrong on this.

[Iceresistance]

It will warm again here starting tomorrow. westerlies are forecast for nearly the next 10 days. Plus Natural warming will start as well soon.

What is "natural warming"?

Does it not warm A LITTLE from the Sun Angle as we head farther into Summer ? do believe that is a thing. Obviously somebody an correct me if i'm wrong on this.

Yes, daylight is getting longer until Late June

[DorkyMcDorkface]

No surprise.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1655540492468199429

I think there is a good chance we'll maintain an above average MDR given what we've seen in recent years with West African Monsoon-induced warming. Pretty much every long-range/seasonal model is showing a wet Sahel which is a sign that another strong WAM episode could be in the cards for this year, which naturally reduces trades in the tropical Atlantic.

[NotSparta]

It will warm again here starting tomorrow. westerlies are forecast for nearly the next 10 days. Plus Natural warming will start as well soon.

What is "natural warming"?

Does it not warm A LITTLE from the Sun Angle as we head farther into Summer ? do believe that is a thing. Obviously somebody an correct me if i'm wrong on this.

Well yeah, that's been going on since March. But we're talking about sea surface temperature anomalies, so this climatological warming isn't relevant