2023 EPAC Season

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Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#21 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:29 pm

For a cold neutral MEI year, 2012 was more active than expected for the EPAC and less active for the Atlantic :lol:
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:13 pm

If Webb is right, the EPAC 2023 season will be very active however, is still early and the SB is comming. See that post at the ENSO thread
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:57 am

>150 ACE is probably off limits unless we get +PDO to flip (January was progress in that regard) and the +PMM gets stronger in addition to ENSO cooperation.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#24 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:34 am

cycloneye wrote:If Webb is right, the EPAC 2023 season will be very active however, is still early and the SB is comming. See that post at the ENSO thread


Active Epac means Atlantic will be :sleeping:
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#25 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:33 pm

SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:If Webb is right, the EPAC 2023 season will be very active however, is still early and the SB is comming. See that post at the ENSO thread


Active Epac means Atlantic will be :sleeping:


Well...2018 didn't really follow that patten :lol:

Just sayin'.

Also, 2016 and 2011 are some recent examples of years where the Atlantic and EPAC were above average, at least ACE-wise. You can definitely have a year where both basins are active.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#26 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 08, 2023 8:10 pm

ECMWF has an active Pacific season and that is because is bullish on warm ENSO for the summer.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seaso ... 2302010000

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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#27 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:50 pm

A very active season is in the cards if El Niño comes and looks like the early signs point to that.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1630945738363670528


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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:52 pm

:uarrow: Reminder that only 2 of the 10 most active EPAC years were El Niño. I doubt we are breaking any sort of records this season.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#29 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 01, 2023 3:32 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Reminder that only 2 of the 10 most active EPAC years were El Niño. I doubt we are breaking any sort of records this season.


Didn't most of them happen pre-1995 (so during an inactive Atlantic era and when the AMO was -)?
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#30 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 01, 2023 3:50 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Reminder that only 2 of the 10 most active EPAC years were El Niño. I doubt we are breaking any sort of records this season.


When you say you doubt any records will be broken, what do you mean?
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Mar 02, 2023 6:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Reminder that only 2 of the 10 most active EPAC years were El Niño. I doubt we are breaking any sort of records this season.


When you say you doubt any records will be broken, what do you mean?


I don’t think we’re going to see the levels of activity we saw in 2014-18, at least not in 2015 and 2018 unless the PDO/PMM radically flip.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:13 pm

Image

Some improvement in the SST configuration the last couple weeks.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 22, 2023 12:30 pm

Looks like the PDO is warming.

Image
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#34 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 22, 2023 12:41 pm

For Feb, PDO really cooled according to the JMA. Looks like it's holding steady so far but if El Nino is on its way it should start warming in late April.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Mar 22, 2023 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 22, 2023 3:13 pm

:uarrow: that is a really classic -PDO. Look at how warm the CPAC mid latitudes are while the horseshoe region is cold.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 22, 2023 3:28 pm

Ok, I thought it was warming looking at that but you are saying, not yet. Does anyone has a graphic of what area of the Pacific is the PDO located?
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#37 Postby Teban54 » Wed Mar 22, 2023 5:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ok, I thought it was warming looking at that but you are saying, not yet. Does anyone has a graphic of what area of the Pacific is the PDO located?

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/clima ... nd-indices

https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#38 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:13 am

Im keeping an eye on the waters off the west coast of North America and east of Japan. To my untrained eye it seems like there has been some cooling in the midlatitude portion of NW Pacific, and perhaps a bit of warming west of NA as well, although the bulk of the warmth is still in the midlatitudes of Central Pacific. Pretty exciting to watch how the SST configuration evolves in the coming months.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 26, 2023 4:19 pm

What do the members think about the numbers of storms for this EPAC 2023 season?

I see a very active season with 20/11/5.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#40 Postby Blown Away » Sun Mar 26, 2023 4:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:What do the members think about the numbers of storms for this EPAC 2023 season?

I see a very active season with 20/11/5.


EPAC seems like it has been very active for a number of years now, so 20/11 is becoming somewhat of a normal season. Very active in past few La Niña years and now El Niño is supposed to really enhance EPAC. Maybe 30?
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