2023 EPAC Season

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NDG
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#81 Postby NDG » Tue May 16, 2023 9:01 pm

I expect something similar to 1987 in that the EPAC season didn't really get started until July despite a moderate El Nino already in place by the start of the season, cooler waters taking over between Baja & Hawaii by the start of the season may have something to do with it like it may have this season.

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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#82 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 18, 2023 11:51 am

cycloneye wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
You see a backloaded season?

In terms of activity I do expect it to be busy from late September into November like I said before, as the Niño will have solidified itself by then. Before that I'm thinking we'll still see a good amount of activity, although the -PDO could throw a monkey wrench into things perhaps, if it persists anyway.


What about how the Pacific Mexican coast / CentralAmerican Pacific coast fare? Will there be many or a handfull landfalling storms?


Bumping for DorkyMcDorkface and my second question. :D
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#83 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu May 18, 2023 11:53 am

cycloneye wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:In terms of activity I do expect it to be busy from late September into November like I said before, as the Niño will have solidified itself by then. Before that I'm thinking we'll still see a good amount of activity, although the -PDO could throw a monkey wrench into things perhaps, if it persists anyway.


What about how the Pacific Mexican coast / CentralAmerican Pacific coast fare? Will there be many or a handfull landfalling storms?


Bumping for DorkyMcDorkface and my second question. :D

Yeah sorry.
late season is where you usually get those big troughs to recurve storms northeastward, so in that case yeah, there may be an elevated risk for Mexico this year on the EPAC side.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#84 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 25, 2023 1:03 pm

Here is the NOAA outlook for EPAC. Between 14-20 named storms as an above average season. There are interesting things in the text of the outlook that are discussed in storm2k many times such as the AMO, the -PDO, active Pacific era vs not active era. So come to discuss about all of what they are saying.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/

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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#85 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 27, 2023 9:11 pm

Operational and ensemble models pretty quiet for the EPAC over the next 2 weeks.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#86 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 28, 2023 12:26 am

:uarrow: there’s a ULAC near 120W. Normally would expect a disturbance here but a surface high to its north is keeping trades strong and reducing surface convergence.

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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#87 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2023 4:56 am

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: there’s a ULAC near 120W. Normally would expect a disturbance here but a surface high to its north is keeping trades strong and reducing surface convergence.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/1112074900748906526/IMG_6932.png


Comgratulations on having the blue tag as a pro met and doing the first post with it.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#88 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 29, 2023 5:16 am

00z Euro has at least something south of CentralAmerica.

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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#89 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 29, 2023 4:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Euro has at least something south of CentralAmerica.

https://i.imgur.com/B7BoggO.png


As Kingarabian said, there is anything solid on the models right now for the next 2 weeks.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#90 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:27 am

Nothing on the models still. Has a lot to do with the MJO skipping the EPAC, and the Indian ocean again favored for development. Maybe if we get a rogue -CCKW we could see something.

But if we don't see a TC develop by June 21, it could mark the latest start to an EPAC season in 53 years. The last time this happened was in 2009 (which set the latest start in 41 years at that time).
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#91 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 02, 2023 3:34 pm

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GEFS consistently wants to finally move the ULAC into southern Mexico. This broadly is the upper-level setup we see during hurricane season. Otherwise, the hostile conditions of strong westerly shear seen recently and typical outside hurricane season will continue.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#92 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 04, 2023 10:48 am

This has to be a good reason why EPAC hasn't produced any tropical cyclones yet, unlike last year.
This is also something to watch for the remainder of the hurricane season, will the WPAC steal most of the action in the Pacific away from the EPAC?

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1665148815437864962


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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#93 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 04, 2023 11:01 am

Short range CANSIPS, which does a fairly good job, has trended of an even drier June for off the coast of MX, so we may have to wait even longer.

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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#94 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 04, 2023 12:06 pm

Ava in 1969 formed on July 1 and holds the record of the latest that a tropical storm has formed in the East Pacific basin. Will 2023 break the record or something forms before that date?
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#95 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 04, 2023 1:07 pm

A slower EPAC season has big implications on the Atlantic hurricane season. Vice versa.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#96 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun Jun 04, 2023 1:28 pm

Most recent "delayed start" I can think of in the EPAC was 2019; Alvin didn't form until the final week of June. I'm not well versed in EPAC climo so I am not sure how much early-season activity correlates with overall activity.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#97 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 04, 2023 2:40 pm

Correlation is not significant on EPAC early season TCG and seasonal activity last time I ran the numbers. The exception is if the individual early season storms become strong.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#98 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun Jun 04, 2023 2:50 pm

Not a significant signal by any means but it's a start I suppose...
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#99 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 04, 2023 10:18 pm

Not sure any Atlantic tropical waves have even propagated into the EPAC yet. Let's give it a week or two
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#100 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:59 pm

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This is a favorable VP setup as we enter July with rising motion focused on the entire Pacific.
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