2023 EPAC Season

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GEFS and EPS seem to be hinting at a system developing a little over a week out. Operationals haven't jumped on board yet though but there is plenty of time for them to do so. Worth watching.

[cycloneye]

GFS has jumped on development, but is long range.

[cycloneye]

10 days out but GFS is still alone.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

10 days out but GFS is still alone.

https://i.imgur.com/HifUPee.png

Still a modest signal on EPS even though the operational has nothing.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Average date for the first named EPAC named system is June 10th. Looks like we will pass that with no named system in the EPAC. Date of the second avg named system is June 24th. Seems to be a slow start for what is supposed to be an above average year in the EPAC

[Yellow Evan]

I have no idea how NHC got June 10th as average named storm start date. 1971-2020 median is May 27.

[aspen]

Average date for the first named EPAC named system is June 10th. Looks like we will pass that with no named system in the EPAC. Date of the second avg named system is June 24th. Seems to be a slow start for what is supposed to be an above average year in the EPAC

Maybe this season will play out somewhat like 2016, where the first EPac named storm (not counting Pali, it’s a CPac anomaly) doesn’t form until late June/early July but ushers in an active July. The main difference is that this time, we’re going from a La Niña to an El Niño and not the other way around. Also the -PMM, which I don’t think 2016 had.

[cycloneye]

Well, GFS abandoned the EPAC development so we keep waiting for Adrian to form sometime this season.

[Yellow Evan]

Signal still alive and well in the GEFS.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Average date for the first named EPAC named system is June 10th. Looks like we will pass that with no named system in the EPAC. Date of the second avg named system is June 24th. Seems to be a slow start for what is supposed to be an above average year in the EPAC

Maybe this season will play out somewhat like 2016, where the first EPac named storm (not counting Pali, it’s a CPac anomaly) doesn’t form until late June/early July but ushers in an active July. The main difference is that this time, we’re going from a La Niña to an El Niño and not the other way around. Also the -PMM, which I don’t think 2016 had.

Despite the Niña (which ended up being rather weak anyway) 2016 had a pretty hefty +PMM, in what seemed like a residual effect from the Super Niño the prior year. The setup this year looks to be the exact opposite ironically, both ENSO wise and regarding the config in the Northern Pacific.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I have no idea how NHC got June 10th as average named storm start date. 1971-2020 median is May 27.

Their avg was 1991-2022 I believe

[Blown Away]

EPAC almost a month in during a Nino year and nothing?? I know GFS hinting something in the 12+ day range.
2022 EPAC had C storm in near range at this point and it was during a Nina year??

[DorkyMcDorkface]

EPAC almost a month in during a Nino year and nothing?? I know GFS hinting something in the 12+ day range.
2022 EPAC had C storm in near range at this point and it was during a Nina year??

For what it's worth CMC has two storms in the long range. There is also some EPS support for at least one storm as well, even though there is nothing on the operational Euro. I think there's a chance we could see something in another week or so.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS on day 10.

[cycloneye]

TAFB.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1667228213456818176

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS on day 10.

https://i.imgur.com/jRHSP4O.png

Amplified by GFS vorticity BS over Venezuela. I'd take this and especially the Atlantic system with a grain of salt, although TCG is possible given that there will be a -VP200 cell that appears to be a CCKW passing through the region at the time and upper level easterlies have finally become established across the basin (during winter, westerlies dominate, shearing the basin).

[Kingarabian]

Euro has a solid vort in 10 days. Will be a good test of EPAC conditions early on.

[cycloneye]

Euro has a solid vort in 10 days. Will be a good test of EPAC conditions early on.

At least is a start from this model.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS now on day 7.

[cycloneye]

Good thread from Yellow Evan.

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1667217863512584192




 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1667217866712842246




 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1667217871834079233




 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1667217877282455552




 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1667217883158691840