2023 EPAC Season

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dexterlabio
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#121 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jun 09, 2023 9:34 pm

I don't know why people are using 2022 as an example of an "average" year in EPAC despite a competing ENSO state. If we look at the number of named storms and hurricanes then yes it may look average, but if we look at how long they lasted and how long they maintained their peak strength, that is another story.

That being said, I believe we will be reminded of what a classic EPAC hurricane season looks like this year.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#122 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 12, 2023 7:02 pm

PMM came in cooler for May. Now at -5.

Last time it was this cool was during the 2010-2013 period.

Overall the comparisons with 2009 are taking a hit. Yes 2009 had a cool PDO and PMM combo during May, but they were trending warm during May and warmed during JJAS.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Jun 12, 2023 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#123 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Jun 12, 2023 8:52 pm

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form late this week, several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system over the
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

Image
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#124 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jun 12, 2023 11:38 pm

There we go.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#125 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 12, 2023 11:45 pm

Image

Support for 2 systems on the 0z GFS and its ensemble members though not sure how legit the TCG pathway of the western system is.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#126 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Jun 13, 2023 2:08 pm

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Corrected order of systems listed in the text

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific:
An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south
of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week, conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system thereafter
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


Image
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#127 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 13, 2023 3:42 pm

The operational 12z model suite dropped all development. Could be back on the next runs though.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#128 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 13, 2023 7:00 pm

Image

Image

GEFS support remaining but op GFS has backed off in 2 most recent runs despite similar upper environment. My hunch is the downtrend is likely an issue related to feedbacks with convection.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#129 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 14, 2023 7:59 pm

Image

18z GFS not much up to July?? Ummm, EPAC supposed to rolling during an El Niño??
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#130 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 14, 2023 8:40 pm

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/528QrK5S/gfs-mslp-wind-epac-fh0-384.gif [/url]

18z GFS not much up to July?? Ummm, EPAC supposed to rolling during an El Niño??


The Atlantic got mad about how it underperformed last year during a La Nina, so it's cursing the EPAC this year to suffer a similar fate :lol:
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#131 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 14, 2023 8:54 pm

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/528QrK5S/gfs-mslp-wind-epac-fh0-384.gif [/url]

18z GFS not much up to July?? Ummm, EPAC supposed to rolling during an El Niño??

Not much of a surprise. This isn't the same 2014-2018 ENSO with the PMM and PDO being deep in negative territory. At the same time, during May the MJO was active over the MC and WPAC but skipped the EPAC. The Atlantic is actually warmer than the EPAC right now so it makes sense the MJO hopscotched the EPAC.

Not too concerned right now though. July is what counts.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#132 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jun 14, 2023 11:34 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/528QrK5S/gfs-mslp-wind-epac-fh0-384.gif [/url]

18z GFS not much up to July?? Ummm, EPAC supposed to rolling during an El Niño??

Not much of a surprise. This isn't the same 2014-2018 ENSO with the PMM and PDO being deep in negative territory. At the same time, during May the MJO was active over the MC and WPAC but skipped the EPAC. The Atlantic is actually warmer than the EPAC right now so it makes sense the MJO hopscotched the EPAC.

Not too concerned right now though. July is what counts.


Yeah, El Nino/-PMM means very suppressed ITCZ too so it's not too big a surprise the EPAC struggles early on. Should be a backloaded season
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#133 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 15, 2023 12:36 am

074
ABPZ20 KNHC 150504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
An elongated area of disturbed weather located several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of Baja California is associated
with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible over the next day or
two while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
By this weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for some slow development of this system thereafter while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#134 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 15, 2023 12:42 am

I will say I don’t think it is a great sign for that we got a solid CCKW that will likely amount to nothing, likely due to strong ridging reducing cyclonic vorticity and advecting dry air along the monsoon trough.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#135 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:44 am

Meanwhile, GFS mainly crickets for June in the EPAC during what is supposed to be El Niño prime time area.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#136 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:17 pm

ECMWF has a dead basin like GFS. Is more than a month that the season began and ACE on average should be around 7.7.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#137 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:00 pm

2009 had a sort of similar cool PDO/PMM combo and started off slow, only to have one of the most active Augusts on record. But then again, the PDO and PMM shifted warm quickly during late May and throughout the summer. Although that's not what we're currently seeing here, the El Nino itself so far is ahead of 2009.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#138 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:20 pm

Kingarabian wrote:2009 had a sort of similar cool PDO/PMM combo and started off slow, only to have one of the most active Augusts on record. But then again, the PDO and PMM shifted warm quickly during late May and throughout the summer. Although that's not what we're currently seeing here, the El Nino itself so far is ahead of 2009.


Would have to agree with the PMM in particular, may not see ace juggernauts like 2014 or 2018. But with a canonical like El Nino, at some point might see a Rick, Patricia, Linda esque storm.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#139 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:46 pm

Finnally, this basin has a invest. Now the question is,will it develop to be the first storm?

Invest 90E is up.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#140 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jun 17, 2023 2:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:Finnally, this basin has a invest. Now the question is,will it develop to be the first storm?

Invest 90E is up.

None of the globals really do anything with it at all, so no.
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