2023 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it
moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[ElectricStorm]

Code orange now

1. Western East Pacific:
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located well to the
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the latter part of this week
or this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward across
the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Code red:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little better organized today. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development of this system during the
next few days as the system moves generally northwestward, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The system is
then forecast to turn westward over the weekend, at which time
further development is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

[Kingarabian]

Could be an overachiever.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure located well south of the coast of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for
gradual development of this system by early next week, while the
system moves west-northwestward over the central and western
portions of the east Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure located well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
conducive for gradual development of this system by early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward over the central
and western portions of the east Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms well south of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle
of next week. The system is expected to move west-northwestward over
the central and western portions of the east Pacific during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

A question for those who love to mainly tracking the EPAC: are there any signs of the basin waking up again and producing a flurry of storms anytime in the future? I would have thought that by this time, especially considering the El Nino, we would already be seeing such? Or am I wrong here?

[Kingarabian]

A question for those who love to mainly tracking the EPAC: are there any signs of the basin waking up again and producing a flurry of storms anytime in the future? I would have thought that by this time, especially considering the El Nino, we would already be seeing such? Or am I wrong here?

It's 50/50 over the next few weeks. Euro/GFS hopscotch the EPAC and the active signal ends up in the Atlantic again. CMC seems to be all in on EPAC action heading into October.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days
well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible this
weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible over
the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by early
next week while it moves westward across the central and western
part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1705312570410680513

[Kingarabian]

Welp the EPAC seems to have gone dormant.

[al78]

Welp the EPAC seems to have gone dormant.

The entire Pacific ocean seems to have gone on haitus.

[Yellow Evan]

That will likely be changing as ensembles have ticked up significantly - see my tweet thread from yesterday

[cycloneye]

South of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of Mexico early
next week. Slow development of the system will be possible while it
moves generally northwestward off the southwest coast of Mexico
during the middle to late portions of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development of this
system will be possible while it moves generally northwestward
during the middle to later part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and ECMWF both take a potent TC into northern Mexico generally with support for a system behind it. Jury is still out on the upper environment.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions
are expected to support at least gradual development of the
disturbance and a tropical depression could form during the middle
to later part of the week while the system moves generally
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to support gradual development of the disturbance, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to later part of
the week while the system moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney