2023 EPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

EPAC crossed 100 units of ACE.

Would only need 26 more to reach the average yearly ACE and surpass the total EPAC ACE in 2009.

[Yellow Evan]

A WWB will aid cyclonic vorticity and barotropic instability that could break down into 1-2 cyclones next week. Early September is probably a lull as we wait for MJO to circle back into the Pacific. I can post graphics of this if interested.

[cycloneye]

A WWB will aid cyclonic vorticity and barotropic instability that could break down into 1-2 cyclones next week. Early September is probably a lull as we wait for MJO to circle back into the Pacific. I can post graphics of this if interested.

Go ahead to see the big picture for the next few weeks.

[Extratropical94]

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the
coast of Central America or southern Mexico during the next few
days. Any subsequent development of this system should be slow to
occur while it drifts toward the northwest or north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

We could be seeing the last Dora and Hilary in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast
of Central America or southern Mexico during the next few days.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
late this week while it moves slowly to the northwest or
north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Kelly/Blake

[gatorcane]

EPAC getting active again, lots of convection popping:

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Incredible how the EPAC is literally just one Dora away from having above-average ACE despite having less than ten named storms.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while it moves slowly to the northwest or
north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while
it moves slowly to the northwest or north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula within the next day or
two. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system later this week and this weekend
while it moves west-northwestward over the central portion of the
tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico is producing some disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next two to three days while it moves
slowly to the northwest or north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central East Pacific:
An area of disturbed weather located well south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward over
the central portion of the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 91E is up.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian , what happened to 91E that vanished? At one point it had 50%/80% and now they put the last straw with 0%.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian , what happened to 91E that vanished? At one point it had 50%/80% and now they put the last straw with 0%.

Only the GFS was really developing this system. Its lack of development probably has to do with the 93L becoming the dominant disturbance.

[Extratropical94]

There's a 10/80 AOI in the Pacific and no one's talking about it?

1. Central East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far eastern
Pacific south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala are
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by the middle portion of next week. The system is forecast
to move westward to west-northwestward, passing well south of the
coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

GFS makes it a hurricane by next weekend

[Kingarabian]

Euro wasn't developing it until recently. Looks to move NW but that shearing ULAC doesn't seem to be dominant anymore so we could see a Cat.4 out lf this despite the track.

[Kingarabian]

The Atlantic is heavily favored right now so I wouldn't expect another TC burst until the last week of September through October.

[WalterWhite]

This should be classified as Invest 93E soon.

[cycloneye]

This should be classified as Invest 93E soon.

As soon as this afternoon it may be up.

[Ntxw]

Jova was a stunning surprise, became the strongest storm of the season so far and since 2018. We've seen repetitively fantastic atmospheric conditions for strengthening in the EPAC this year for the majors. Wouldn't be all that shocking if October had another monster. There is usually one in October during an El Nino.