2023 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

South of Central America:
A large, elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well
south of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while
the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system,
if any, should be slow to occur while it moves little during the
next couple of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
forecast to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 99E is up

[cycloneye]

Two areas of interest.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms located southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are associated with a weak trough of low pressure.
This system is forecast to move slowly westward, and an area of low
pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Subsequent
development of the system is likely, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the middle to latter part of the week while
the system meanders well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. South of Guatemala and El Salvador:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of the week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible after that
time while the system meanders over the far eastern portion of the
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

[ElectricStorm]

I think the 20/80 AOI has potential to become pretty strong. Both GFS and Euro have a significant hurricane. Looks like a potential classic October recurve into Mexico. Hopefully it gets tagged as an invest soon so we can start getting some hurricane model runs, but overall I'm starting to get pretty concerned for parts of the Mexican coast, especially since some areas just had Lidia.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms located southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are associated with a trough of low pressure. This
system is forecast to move slowly westward to west-northwestward,
and an area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a day or two.
Further development of the system is likely, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the middle to latter part of
the week while the system meanders well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. South of Guatemala and El Salvador:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of the week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible, and a tropical
depression could form late this week as the system meanders over
the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity extending several hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form in a few days while moving slowly westward and then
northwestward well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico by the middle of the week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible, and a tropical
depression could form late this week as the system meanders over
the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Otis, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico.

1. South of Central America and Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days
over the far eastern Pacific, partially related to the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Depression Twenty-One which are forecast to move
into the region. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system by late this week or this weekend while
the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Corrected order of systems

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Otis, located roughly a hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico.

1. Southwestern East Pacific:
A weak area of low pressure has formed about 1300 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with some
associated shower activity. Upper-level winds could support some
slow development of the system during the next several days while
the low meanders over the southwestern east Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of Central America and Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a day or two over
the far eastern Pacific, partially related to the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Depression Twenty-One which are forecast to move
into the region. Environmental conditions should be conducive
for some development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or this weekend while the low moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[aspen]

The quantity-vs-quality of the EPac this year sure has been something. We’ve only seen 15 NS, which is a little low for an El Niño year, but 10 have become hurricanes and 8 were officially majors (Alvin might’ve briefly hit Cat 3 status IMO). About half of the storms this season have been Cat 4+, an incredibly high ratio. This year has felt like 2018-lite, where the -PPM has kept a lid on NS totals and prevented a lot of high ACE long-trackers, but we still got a triple-basin crosser and a very high number of Cat 4-5s.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The quantity-vs-quality of the EPac this year sure has been something. We’ve only seen 15 NS, which is a little low for an El Niño year, but 10 have become hurricanes and 8 were officially majors (Alvin might’ve briefly hit Cat 3 status IMO). About half of the storms this season have been Cat 4+, an incredibly high ratio. This year has felt like 2018-lite, where the -PPM has kept a lid on NS totals and prevented a lot of high ACE long-trackers, but we still got a triple-basin crosser and a very high number of Cat 4-5s.

I was initially iffy about this season given the seemingly unfavorable PDO/NPMM configuration but by the looks of things ENSO was strong enough to overpower it. I will say the late season activity I was expecting due to the strengthening Nino seems to be coming to fruition though.

[Ntxw]

Jova was a stunning surprise, became the strongest storm of the season so far and since 2018. We've seen repetitively fantastic atmospheric conditions for strengthening in the EPAC this year for the majors. Wouldn't be all that shocking if October had another monster. There is usually one in October during an El Nino.

This is coming true in one of the worst ways.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm starting to become pretty concerned about the 10/60 AOI. GFS has it becoming a hurricane and making landfall in a similar area as Otis. We'll see what the hurricane models have when it gets tagged as an invest, but considering how horrible they were with Otis, they may not be very reliable

[cycloneye]

Another October 2023 Cyclone for EPAC.

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

The very busy October in the eastern Pacific continues this
afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Are there going to be more developments in this basin, or Pilar was the last one?

[Kingarabian]

Are there going to be more developments in this basin, or Pilar was the last one?

We could see one more system although the models are quiet.

[Kingarabian]

Lot's to discuss in the off-season though.

Dora: Impacts as a TC
Hillary: Impacts as a TC
Jova: True intensity.
Otis: Model failure.

[HurricaneRyan]

Lot's to discuss in the off-season though.

Dora: Impacts as a TC
Hillary: Impacts as a TC
Jova: True intensity.
Otis: Model failure.

As a Southern California resident, Hilary was a very interesting experience. I live near Long Beach which is pretty close to the coast. I'm glad Hilary was only a rain storm for us but I did end up staying home from work as there was no way to know how bad flooding could get (I commute by bus). A lot of people in the area made fun of the media for "hyping this up" but the thing is, if the worst case scenario happened instead (like with Otis), there still would have been criticism for not enough warning. I'm fortunate that this was basically just a bonus round of the winter storm season we had but I know that it could have easily been an Allison or Harvey like situation had things turned out differently.

[cycloneye]

The numbers for the EPAC season now with Ramón are 17/10/8.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p3054908

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The numbers for the EPAC season now with Ramón are 17/10/8.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p3054908

There are 8 majors... so 17/10/8. The most since 2018, and the highest ACE since then at 163.