2023 EPAC Season

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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#61 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 22, 2023 3:05 pm

PDO/PMM looking better this week.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 22, 2023 3:52 pm

:uarrow: That is good. Let's see if Adrian forms around May 15. Only 22 days are left for that date.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Apr 22, 2023 7:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:PDO/PMM looking better this week.


Yeah I tweeted out a looming -NPO and the MJO penetration of the Pacific would help the EPAC SSTs some a few days back. This should continue for the next 6 days or so, which will hopefully bring us to around average SST wise (which isn't impressive given the global temperature mean but it could at least help potential long tracked systems avoid thermodynamic issues).
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#64 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 05, 2023 9:48 am

:uarrow:
Well that looks undone. Cooling again.

Image

In 2009, the PDO rapidly warmed during May and was arguably positive by the first week of June.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 05, 2023 9:51 am

:uarrow: yeah and it's going to get even worse in the coming days.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#66 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 05, 2023 10:55 am

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: That is good. Let's see if Adrian forms around May 15. Only 22 days are left for that date.


I am already here! :lol:
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#67 Postby Astromanía » Wed May 10, 2023 2:07 pm

Just five days before the season start
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#68 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 11, 2023 3:43 pm

So as of now, looks like the season will not be as active? In a normal year with El Niño, they are active. I guess the -PDO right?
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#69 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu May 11, 2023 6:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:So as of now, looks like the season will not be as active? In a normal year with El Niño, they are active. I guess the -PDO right?

I think we could see a backloaded season, given the Niño will have strengthened by late September, October and November. Would occur in tandem with the Atlantic starting to shut down at the same time, also a result of strengthening ENSO.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#70 Postby Astromanía » Fri May 12, 2023 12:42 am

"The team, led by AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, is forecasting an above-average season in the East Pacific basin with 17 to 21 named storms and an average season for the Central Pacific basin season with two to five named storms. The East Pacific season is slated to begin on May 15, while the Central Pacific season will get underway on June 1.

Of those storms, eight to 12 are forecast to become hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific — four to eight of which could become major hurricanes, or a Category 3 storm or stronger — and one to three are projected to become hurricanes in the Central Pacific. There is the possibility that two of the Central Pacific storms could intensify into major hurricanes."

Source https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-season-may-turn-hyperactive-in-eastern-pacific/1520105
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#71 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 12, 2023 8:50 am

-PDO and an inactive MJO phase during June means we're likely going to see a delayed start and less likely to see a fast start to the EPAC hurricane season.

2009 was a good example of this.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#72 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 12, 2023 9:01 am

Are we sure MJO will be inactive in June?
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#73 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 12, 2023 9:27 am

:uarrow:
Should be exiting the Atlantic and over Africa and the IO for most of June.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#74 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 14, 2023 8:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:
Should be exiting the Atlantic and over Africa and the IO for most of June.


Based on what?


Image

Image

This will keep upper level westerlies over the eastern Pacific shearing anything that tries to form but will allow for TCG in the west Pacific.

Image

In the long range, most recent ECMWF I could find keeps MJO in the circle. TCG chances in the east Pacific would depend on CCKW activity if this were to verify.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#75 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 14, 2023 9:18 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:
Should be exiting the Atlantic and over Africa and the IO for most of June.


Based on what?


https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/1107472381582254220/IMG_6506.png



https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/1107472381880057946/IMG_6507.png

This will keep upper level westerlies over the eastern Pacific shearing anything that tries to form but will allow for TCG in the west Pacific.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1107473095985479750/IMG_6510.png

In the long range, most recent ECMWF I could find keeps MJO in the circle. TCG chances in the east Pacific would depend on CCKW activity if this were to verify.


My original post was about the EPAC and the chances of TCG there but yeah the WPAC could still be active regardless.

But using RMM it's going to be harder to discern the MJO as it'll get lost in the upcoming El Nino.


Image

Image
But EPS hovmollers show Increasing rising motion in the Atlantic and less so in the EPAC to begin June.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#76 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 15, 2023 6:44 am

And the 2023 season begins.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.

The list of names for 2023 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Adrian AY-dree-uhn Max maks
Beatriz BEE-a-triz Norma NOOR-muh
Calvin KAL-vin Otis OH-tis
Dora DOR-ruh Pilar Pee-LAHR
Eugene YOU-jeen Ramon rah-MOHN
Fernanda fer-NAN-dah Selma SELL-mah
Greg greg Todd tahd
Hilary HIH-luh-ree Veronica vur-RAHN-ih-kuh
Irwin UR-win Wiley WY-lee
Jova HO-vah Xina ZEE-nah
Kenneth KEH-neth York york
Lidia LIH-dyah Zelda ZEL-dah

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance
times of this product are 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose
the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to
land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One-E", "Two-E",
"Three-E", etc.).

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel
watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar. The Tropical Cyclone Update is also used in lieu of or to
precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical
Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found
under WMO header WTPZ61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUEP1-5.

All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text products
can be found at https://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml,
while more information about NHC graphical products can be
found at https://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml.

You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available
via Twitter when select NHC products are issued. Information
about our east Pacific Twitter feed is available at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi
NNNN


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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#77 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon May 15, 2023 10:28 am

Looks like we won't be getting off to an early start like we did in 2020 and 2021 with 01E and Andres respectively. If those RMM plots are to be believed then the MJO does not look conducive for TC development for the next week or two, but yeah I suppose it is worth watching for a passing CCKW to provide a small favorable window for something to spin up, even if it ends up being weak and/or short lived.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#78 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 15, 2023 10:33 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Looks like we won't be getting off to an early start like we did in 2020 and 2021 with 01E and Andres respectively. If those RMM plots are to be believed then the MJO does not look conducive for TC development for the next week or two, but yeah I suppose it is worth watching for a passing CCKW to provide a small favorable window for something to spin up, even if it ends up being weak and/or short lived.


You see a backloaded season?
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#79 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon May 15, 2023 10:47 am

cycloneye wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Looks like we won't be getting off to an early start like we did in 2020 and 2021 with 01E and Andres respectively. If those RMM plots are to be believed then the MJO does not look conducive for TC development for the next week or two, but yeah I suppose it is worth watching for a passing CCKW to provide a small favorable window for something to spin up, even if it ends up being weak and/or short lived.


You see a backloaded season?

In terms of activity I do expect it to be busy from late September into November like I said before, as the Niño will have solidified itself by then. Before that I'm thinking we'll still see a good amount of activity, although the -PDO could throw a monkey wrench into things perhaps, if it persists anyway.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#80 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 15, 2023 8:03 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Looks like we won't be getting off to an early start like we did in 2020 and 2021 with 01E and Andres respectively. If those RMM plots are to be believed then the MJO does not look conducive for TC development for the next week or two, but yeah I suppose it is worth watching for a passing CCKW to provide a small favorable window for something to spin up, even if it ends up being weak and/or short lived.


You see a backloaded season?

In terms of activity I do expect it to be busy from late September into November like I said before, as the Niño will have solidified itself by then. Before that I'm thinking we'll still see a good amount of activity, although the -PDO could throw a monkey wrench into things perhaps, if it persists anyway.


What about how the Pacific Mexican coast / CentralAmerican Pacific coast fare? Will there be many or a handfull landfalling storms?
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