2023 EPAC Season
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
I don't know why people are using 2022 as an example of an "average" year in EPAC despite a competing ENSO state. If we look at the number of named storms and hurricanes then yes it may look average, but if we look at how long they lasted and how long they maintained their peak strength, that is another story.
That being said, I believe we will be reminded of what a classic EPAC hurricane season looks like this year.
That being said, I believe we will be reminded of what a classic EPAC hurricane season looks like this year.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
PMM came in cooler for May. Now at -5.
Last time it was this cool was during the 2010-2013 period.
Overall the comparisons with 2009 are taking a hit. Yes 2009 had a cool PDO and PMM combo during May, but they were trending warm during May and warmed during JJAS.
Last time it was this cool was during the 2010-2013 period.
Overall the comparisons with 2009 are taking a hit. Yes 2009 had a cool PDO and PMM combo during May, but they were trending warm during May and warmed during JJAS.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Jun 12, 2023 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 12 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form late this week, several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system over the
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Blake
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 12 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form late this week, several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system over the
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Blake
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Support for 2 systems on the 0z GFS and its ensemble members though not sure how legit the TCG pathway of the western system is.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Corrected order of systems listed in the text
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Central East Pacific:
An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south
of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week, conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
2. Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system thereafter
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Corrected order of systems listed in the text
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Central East Pacific:
An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south
of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week, conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
2. Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system thereafter
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
The operational 12z model suite dropped all development. Could be back on the next runs though.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
GEFS support remaining but op GFS has backed off in 2 most recent runs despite similar upper environment. My hunch is the downtrend is likely an issue related to feedbacks with convection.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/528QrK5S/gfs-mslp-wind-epac-fh0-384.gif [/url]
18z GFS not much up to July?? Ummm, EPAC supposed to rolling during an El Niño??
The Atlantic got mad about how it underperformed last year during a La Nina, so it's cursing the EPAC this year to suffer a similar fate
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/528QrK5S/gfs-mslp-wind-epac-fh0-384.gif [/url]
18z GFS not much up to July?? Ummm, EPAC supposed to rolling during an El Niño??
Not much of a surprise. This isn't the same 2014-2018 ENSO with the PMM and PDO being deep in negative territory. At the same time, during May the MJO was active over the MC and WPAC but skipped the EPAC. The Atlantic is actually warmer than the EPAC right now so it makes sense the MJO hopscotched the EPAC.
Not too concerned right now though. July is what counts.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/528QrK5S/gfs-mslp-wind-epac-fh0-384.gif [/url]
18z GFS not much up to July?? Ummm, EPAC supposed to rolling during an El Niño??
Not much of a surprise. This isn't the same 2014-2018 ENSO with the PMM and PDO being deep in negative territory. At the same time, during May the MJO was active over the MC and WPAC but skipped the EPAC. The Atlantic is actually warmer than the EPAC right now so it makes sense the MJO hopscotched the EPAC.
Not too concerned right now though. July is what counts.
Yeah, El Nino/-PMM means very suppressed ITCZ too so it's not too big a surprise the EPAC struggles early on. Should be a backloaded season
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
074
ABPZ20 KNHC 150504
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 14 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Central East Pacific:
An elongated area of disturbed weather located several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of Baja California is associated
with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible over the next day or
two while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
By this weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for some slow development of this system thereafter while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
ABPZ20 KNHC 150504
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 14 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Central East Pacific:
An elongated area of disturbed weather located several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of Baja California is associated
with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible over the next day or
two while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
By this weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for some slow development of this system thereafter while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
I will say I don’t think it is a great sign for that we got a solid CCKW that will likely amount to nothing, likely due to strong ridging reducing cyclonic vorticity and advecting dry air along the monsoon trough.
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- Blown Away
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Meanwhile, GFS mainly crickets for June in the EPAC during what is supposed to be El Niño prime time area.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
ECMWF has a dead basin like GFS. Is more than a month that the season began and ACE on average should be around 7.7.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
2009 had a sort of similar cool PDO/PMM combo and started off slow, only to have one of the most active Augusts on record. But then again, the PDO and PMM shifted warm quickly during late May and throughout the summer. Although that's not what we're currently seeing here, the El Nino itself so far is ahead of 2009.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:2009 had a sort of similar cool PDO/PMM combo and started off slow, only to have one of the most active Augusts on record. But then again, the PDO and PMM shifted warm quickly during late May and throughout the summer. Although that's not what we're currently seeing here, the El Nino itself so far is ahead of 2009.
Would have to agree with the PMM in particular, may not see ace juggernauts like 2014 or 2018. But with a canonical like El Nino, at some point might see a Rick, Patricia, Linda esque storm.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
Finnally, this basin has a invest. Now the question is,will it develop to be the first storm?
Invest 90E is up.
Invest 90E is up.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Finnally, this basin has a invest. Now the question is,will it develop to be the first storm?
Invest 90E is up.
None of the globals really do anything with it at all, so no.
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