Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU & NOAA verification of 2023 forecasts are up

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
zzzh
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 501
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:13 pm

Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU & NOAA verification of 2023 forecasts are up

#1 Postby zzzh » Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:11 pm

CSU
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf --- April 13 --- 13/6/2

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf June 1 --- 15/7/3

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07.pdf July 6 --- 18/9/4

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-08.pdf August 3 --- 18/9/4

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0803.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- August 3-16 --- Normal Activity

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0817.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- August 17-30 --- Slightly above normal activity

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0831.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- August 31-September 13 --- Above average activity

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0928.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- September 28-October 11 --- Above average activity

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-1012.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- October 12-25 --- Above average activity

TSR
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDecember2023.pdf ---December 6 forecast --- 13/6/3

https://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRA ... il2023.pdf --- April 6 --- 12/6/2

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2023.pdf --- May 31 --- 13/6/2

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2023.pdf --- July 7 --- 17/8/3

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2023.pdf --- August 8 --- 18/8/3

NOAA https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023- ... on-outlook --- May 25 --- 12-17 named storms

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ove-normal --- August 10 --- 14-21 named storms

UKMET https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2023 --- May 26 --- 20/11/5

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2023 --- August 1 --- 19/9/6

Joe Bastardi https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast --- Between 10-14 named storms

https://www.weatherbell.com/august-hurr ... act-update --- August forecast --- 14/6-7/2

Crownweather Services https://crownweather.com/index.php/disc ... -march-20/ --- 12/6/2

Accuweather https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1503557 March --- 11-15 named storms

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... F3zt2XIXG8 --- August 2 --- 11-15 maned storms

WeatherTiger https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atl ... dium=email --- 13-18 named storms

University of Arizona https://www.nextgov.com/ideas/2023/05/f ... on/385916/ 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 majors
1 likes   

zzzh
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 501
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:13 pm

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#2 Postby zzzh » Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:13 pm

Image
The reason why the TSR extended forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity calls for ACE-activity
below the 1991-2020 climate norm level is our current expectation that warm-neutral or weak El Niño
conditions will occur during July-August-September 2023.
1 likes   

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1704
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#3 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Jan 11, 2023 7:26 pm

Lol, forecast accuracy at this date is a whopping 0%
9 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 05, 2023 4:22 pm

Interesting that he is going to release the forecast in early Febuary.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1622343883781799942


1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
JetFuel_SE
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 253
Age: 24
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#5 Postby JetFuel_SE » Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:Interesting that he is going to release the forecast in early Febuary.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1622343883781799942



Skill is basically zero at this time of the year, I'm not sure why people even bother lmao.
3 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8887
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#6 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 13, 2023 9:07 am

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1624983272307523590




His current projection is 10-14 storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 Majors

ACE between 60-90
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8603
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Joe Bastardi first forecast=Between 10-14 named storms

#7 Postby Steve » Tue Feb 14, 2023 9:53 am

Forecast is reasonable for what he thinks will happen. MJO in 5/6 rarely has US landfall impacts. But we know it won’t be in those phases the entire season. If he’s right and we are hovering in those phases, it will be relatively easy to time bursts once the models catch on to changes and amplifications. It may only happen once or twice that it circles around to 1-2-3, but those changes will time activity. I’m not giving an opinion on his forecast one way or the other. We are in 6 now which is a warm phase for the US in winter. I remember him saying that the trend typically tries to repeat later on in the year.

Here is July-August-September composites (scroll to 5/6).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... _image.png

Tropical Composites (May-September)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... maysep.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#8 Postby SFLcane » Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:36 pm

Call what you want this methology has worked ok last few years. Or was it luck? :double:

Quote from article: Out of recorded history, 1957 and 1976 are the best seasons to compare to 2023. Both were coming off 'triple dip La Niña's and both of which indicate near average seasons in terms of activity. Based on this, we're forecasting 14-18 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes.

https://www.wesh.com/article/2023-hurri ... t/42888945

Image

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1644
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#9 Postby NotSparta » Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:35 pm

SFLcane wrote:Call what you want this methology has worked ok last few years. Or was it luck? :double:

Quote from article: Out of recorded history, 1957 and 1976 are the best seasons to compare to 2023. Both were coming off 'triple dip La Niña's and both of which indicate near average seasons in terms of activity. Based on this, we're forecasting 14-18 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes.

https://www.wesh.com/article/2023-hurri ... t/42888945

https://i.postimg.cc/qM7cySqh/image.png

https://i.postimg.cc/P5gmGq4Y/mage2.png


Ah, this again. Pure luck, would be nice if it was actually something legit but sadly at the end of the day it is not
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 574
Age: 49
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#10 Postby crownweather » Thu Mar 02, 2023 11:06 am

NotSparta wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Call what you want this methology has worked ok last few years. Or was it luck? :double:

Quote from article: Out of recorded history, 1957 and 1976 are the best seasons to compare to 2023. Both were coming off 'triple dip La Niña's and both of which indicate near average seasons in terms of activity. Based on this, we're forecasting 14-18 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes.

https://www.wesh.com/article/2023-hurri ... t/42888945

https://i.postimg.cc/qM7cySqh/image.png

https://i.postimg.cc/P5gmGq4Y/mage2.png


Ah, this again. Pure luck, would be nice if it was actually something legit but sadly at the end of the day it is not


Exactly. I tried reproducing the results they came up with last season at about this time and I really couldn't. I even messaged the met at WESH for some guidance on how they come up with these figures because I wanted to try it with other weather events. They refused to give me any sort of an answer. Additionally, there are NO research papers anywhere on the methodology behind the Lezak's Recurring Cycle and the only documentation is found on Lezak's website and even that is very dubious.

My view is that it's voodoo science and honestly I'm sad to see some big weather company names (Baron) putting all their eggs into using this to consult for their clients. They will be doing their clients a huge disservice.
1 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22472
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#11 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:09 pm

I've spoken with Phil Klotzbach about the value of seasonal outlooks on many occasions. I pointed out to him that unless the outlook could confidently highlight a particular area that is more likely to be impacted by a significant storm, then there is nothing that any business would do differently to prepare. No value, basically, if a business cannot act on such a prediction. Numbers alone do not indicate an increased or decreased threat level for an area. I explained to Phil that we have some offshore clients in the Gulf of Mexico who would pay for a good forecast of the potential for the drilling/production areas to be shut down over the coming month, as they have to allot funds for possible shut downs due to an approaching TC. He said the Gulf is a particularly difficult area to make such a forecast.

People sure love to see those numbers, though. I'll be making my first presentation of a seasonal outlook next Tuesday. Looks like average to below-average numbers. Maybe similar to last year in terms of numbers, maybe less.
7 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#12 Postby SFLcane » Thu Mar 02, 2023 4:04 pm

wxman57 wrote:I've spoken with Phil Klotzbach about the value of seasonal outlooks on many occasions. I pointed out to him that unless the outlook could confidently highlight a particular area that is more likely to be impacted by a significant storm, then there is nothing that any business would do differently to prepare. No value, basically, if a business cannot act on such a prediction. Numbers alone do not indicate an increased or decreased threat level for an area. I explained to Phil that we have some offshore clients in the Gulf of Mexico who would pay for a good forecast of the potential for the drilling/production areas to be shut down over the coming month, as they have to allot funds for possible shut downs due to an approaching TC. He said the Gulf is a particularly difficult area to make such a forecast.

People sure love to see those numbers, though. I'll be making my first presentation of a seasonal outlook next Tuesday. Looks like average to below-average numbers. Maybe similar to last year in terms of numbers, maybe less.


Threat areas?
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#13 Postby SFLcane » Tue Mar 14, 2023 2:01 pm

Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist

18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!

Image



Link: https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4
0 likes   

User avatar
JetFuel_SE
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 253
Age: 24
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#14 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed Mar 15, 2023 3:51 am

SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist

18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!

https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg

https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4

18 storms in a likely El Niño? Guess that may be possible if the current +AMO pattern holds, but I highly doubt we'll get quite that high.
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#15 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 15, 2023 7:45 am

JetFuel_SE wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist

18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!

https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg

https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4

18 storms in a likely El Niño? Guess that may be possible if the current +AMO pattern holds, but I highly doubt we'll get quite that high.


The only good analogue to that (since at least 1950) would probably be 1969. That was also a traditional El Nino year that also saw 18 NSs. 2004 was a Modoki with 15 total NSs. In most cases, it seems like the more active El Nino years since 1950 tended to see anywhere from roughly 10 to 13 NSs.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8887
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#16 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:01 am

JetFuel_SE wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist

18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!

https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg

https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4

18 storms in a likely El Niño? Guess that may be possible if the current +AMO pattern holds, but I highly doubt we'll get quite that high.

Could he also be factoring the quick spin-ups and the Subtropical region?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

kronotsky
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:17 am

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#17 Postby kronotsky » Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:41 am

JetFuel_SE wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Interesting that he is going to release the forecast in early Febuary.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1622343883781799942

Skill is basically zero at this time of the year, I'm not sure why people even bother lmao.

I guess in order to know that skill is zero, they actually have to make some forecasts. So there is *some* knowledge being generated
1 likes   

Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 735
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#18 Postby Astromanía » Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:24 am

SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist

18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!

https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg

https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4

Yeah I'm not buying it, for me this may be the first season with below average activity since 2015
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22472
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#19 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 15, 2023 1:24 pm

SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I've spoken with Phil Klotzbach about the value of seasonal outlooks on many occasions. I pointed out to him that unless the outlook could confidently highlight a particular area that is more likely to be impacted by a significant storm, then there is nothing that any business would do differently to prepare. No value, basically, if a business cannot act on such a prediction. Numbers alone do not indicate an increased or decreased threat level for an area. I explained to Phil that we have some offshore clients in the Gulf of Mexico who would pay for a good forecast of the potential for the drilling/production areas to be shut down over the coming month, as they have to allot funds for possible shut downs due to an approaching TC. He said the Gulf is a particularly difficult area to make such a forecast.

People sure love to see those numbers, though. I'll be making my first presentation of a seasonal outlook next Tuesday. Looks like average to below-average numbers. Maybe similar to last year in terms of numbers, maybe less.


Threat areas?


Phil doesn't do threat areas. However, the analog years point to three prime locations - South Florida, middle Gulf coast (LA to FL Panhandle), and the Yucatan Peninsula.
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#20 Postby SFLcane » Wed Mar 15, 2023 1:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I've spoken with Phil Klotzbach about the value of seasonal outlooks on many occasions. I pointed out to him that unless the outlook could confidently highlight a particular area that is more likely to be impacted by a significant storm, then there is nothing that any business would do differently to prepare. No value, basically, if a business cannot act on such a prediction. Numbers alone do not indicate an increased or decreased threat level for an area. I explained to Phil that we have some offshore clients in the Gulf of Mexico who would pay for a good forecast of the potential for the drilling/production areas to be shut down over the coming month, as they have to allot funds for possible shut downs due to an approaching TC. He said the Gulf is a particularly difficult area to make such a forecast.

People sure love to see those numbers, though. I'll be making my first presentation of a seasonal outlook next Tuesday. Looks like average to below-average numbers. Maybe similar to last year in terms of numbers, maybe less.


Threat areas?


Phil doesn't do threat areas. However, the analog years point to three prime locations - South Florida, middle Gulf coast (LA to FL Panhandle), and the Yucatan Peninsula.


:eek:

What years are those?
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bird and 43 guests