Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU & NOAA verification of 2023 forecasts are up

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#21 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 15, 2023 2:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist

18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!

https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg

https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4


Very good presentation. I agree with all of his points, with possible exception to the role of water temps as far as the number of storms. If wind shear is unfavorable, then it won't matter how warm the water is. I'd go closer to the normal (14/7/3) but analog seasons point to the greatest risk to south Florida, middle Gulf coast second, and Yucatan third. It only takes one...
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#22 Postby SFLcane » Wed Mar 15, 2023 3:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist

18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!

https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg

https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4


Very good presentation. I agree with all of his points, with possible exception to the role of water temps as far as the number of storms. If wind shear is unfavorable, then it won't matter how warm the water is. I'd go closer to the normal (14/7/3) but analog seasons point to the greatest risk to south Florida, middle Gulf coast second, and Yucatan third. It only takes one...


Hi Wxman, do you mind sharing those analog years? Would be appreciated. Thanks!

1965 ,2002, 1969?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#23 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:08 pm

SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist

18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!

https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg

https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4


Very good presentation. I agree with all of his points, with possible exception to the role of water temps as far as the number of storms. If wind shear is unfavorable, then it won't matter how warm the water is. I'd go closer to the normal (14/7/3) but analog seasons point to the greatest risk to south Florida, middle Gulf coast second, and Yucatan third. It only takes one...


Hi Wxman, do you mind sharing those analog years? Would be appreciated. Thanks!

1965 ,2002, 1969?


My cold-mongering long-range guy whom I've worked with since 1990 says 1951, 1953, 2004, 2009, and 2012. Previously, we also had 1957, 1976, and 2001. Possibly 1950 as well. When I last contacted Phil about it in February, he was thinking 2001 as the best analog. Don't know if that's still true.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#24 Postby SFLcane » Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:00 am

wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Very good presentation. I agree with all of his points, with possible exception to the role of water temps as far as the number of storms. If wind shear is unfavorable, then it won't matter how warm the water is. I'd go closer to the normal (14/7/3) but analog seasons point to the greatest risk to south Florida, middle Gulf coast second, and Yucatan third. It only takes one...


Hi Wxman, do you mind sharing those analog years? Would be appreciated. Thanks!

1965 ,2002, 1969?


My cold-mongering long-range guy whom I've worked with since 1990 says 1951, 1953, 2004, 2009, and 2012. Previously, we also had 1957, 1976, and 2001. Possibly 1950 as well. When I last contacted Phil about it in February, he was thinking 2001 as the best analog. Don't know if that's still true.


Hi wxman thanks for the response.. 2004 doesn't make sense because that was a Central Pacific El Niño in my opinion We're opposite of that. 2001, 2012, 2009 all make sense depending on how strong +ENSO gets I would think. But overall I don’t really see a South Florida threat from that analog set. We shall see
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#25 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:14 am

SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Hi Wxman, do you mind sharing those analog years? Would be appreciated. Thanks!

1965 ,2002, 1969?


My cold-mongering long-range guy whom I've worked with since 1990 says 1951, 1953, 2004, 2009, and 2012. Previously, we also had 1957, 1976, and 2001. Possibly 1950 as well. When I last contacted Phil about it in February, he was thinking 2001 as the best analog. Don't know if that's still true.


Hi wxman thanks for the response.. 2004 doesn't make sense because that was a Central Pacific El Niño in my opinion We're opposite of that. 2001, 2012, 2009 all make sense depending on how strong +ENSO gets I would think. But overall I don’t really see a South Florida threat from that analog set. We shall see


Without 2004 as an analog, the strike map below would look a bit different for south Florida. El Nino is only part of the equation, though.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#26 Postby SFLcane » Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:24 am

wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
My cold-mongering long-range guy whom I've worked with since 1990 says 1951, 1953, 2004, 2009, and 2012. Previously, we also had 1957, 1976, and 2001. Possibly 1950 as well. When I last contacted Phil about it in February, he was thinking 2001 as the best analog. Don't know if that's still true.


Hi wxman thanks for the response.. 2004 doesn't make sense because that was a Central Pacific El Niño in my opinion We're opposite of that. 2001, 2012, 2009 all make sense depending on how strong +ENSO gets I would think. But overall I don’t really see a South Florida threat from that analog set. We shall see


Without 2004 as an analog, the strike map below would look a bit different for south Florida. El Nino is only part of the equation, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/analogs.JPG


Hmm Interesting surely.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#27 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:30 am

SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Hi Wxman, do you mind sharing those analog years? Would be appreciated. Thanks!

1965 ,2002, 1969?


My cold-mongering long-range guy whom I've worked with since 1990 says 1951, 1953, 2004, 2009, and 2012. Previously, we also had 1957, 1976, and 2001. Possibly 1950 as well. When I last contacted Phil about it in February, he was thinking 2001 as the best analog. Don't know if that's still true.


Hi wxman thanks for the response.. 2004 doesn't make sense because that was a Central Pacific El Niño in my opinion We're opposite of that. 2001, 2012, 2009 all make sense depending on how strong +ENSO gets I would think. But overall I don’t really see a South Florida threat from that analog set. We shall see


Can analog years really be used like that to determine whether or not an upcoming season would have heightened threats for some specific location in the Atlantic (in this case, S. Florida?) I was under the impression that steering patterns, let alone for individual storms, are virtually impossible to predict this far in advance. I can't remember exactly for certain, but did any of 2022's analog years feature a major S. Florida hit?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#28 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 16, 2023 5:37 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Can analog years really be used like that to determine whether or not an upcoming season would have heightened threats for some specific location in the Atlantic (in this case, S. Florida?) I was under the impression that steering patterns, let alone for individual storms, are virtually impossible to predict this far in advance. I can't remember exactly for certain, but did any of 2022's analog years feature a major S. Florida hit?


I don't know. I suppose that if the weather patterns match a previous year, then maybe analog years can predict formation areas and threat areas. Similar water temperature patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic may result in a similar setup of steering currents. There are so many variables, though.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#29 Postby crownweather » Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:03 pm

I just posted my 2023 Hurricane Season forecast. I went with 12 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes and 2 Major Hurricanes.

For analogs, went with 1899, 1918, 1951, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, 1997 and 2002. Picked these analogs using the ENSO ONI data found on Eric Webb's website.

I also identified three areas of concern in terms of landfall threat this season, based partially on the frequency of hits found in the analog data plus the seasonal guidance -

1 is the northern Gulf Coast and in particular the Florida Panhandle.

2 is the area from the northern Bahamas to eastern North Carolina.

3 is the Yucatan Peninsula.

All three areas were pretty "lit up" in the analog data.

Full forecast at https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2023-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast-issued-march-20/.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#30 Postby Teban54 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:50 pm

crownweather wrote:I just posted my 2023 Hurricane Season forecast. I went with 12 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes and 2 Major Hurricanes.

For analogs, went with 1899, 1918, 1951, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, 1997 and 2002. Picked these analogs using the ENSO ONI data found on Eric Webb's website.

I also identified three areas of concern in terms of landfall threat this season, based partially on the frequency of hits found in the analog data plus the seasonal guidance -

1 is the northern Gulf Coast and in particular the Florida Panhandle.

2 is the area from the northern Bahamas to eastern North Carolina.

3 is the Yucatan Peninsula.

All three areas were pretty "lit up" in the analog data.

Full forecast at https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2023-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast-issued-march-20/.

I'm curious: Both you and wxman57 said the Yucatan Peninsula is a hotspot based on analog years. But shouldn't El Nino mean there's too much shear in the Caribbean for storms to impact the area in the first place?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#31 Postby crownweather » Mon Mar 20, 2023 10:01 pm

Teban54 wrote:
crownweather wrote:I just posted my 2023 Hurricane Season forecast. I went with 12 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes and 2 Major Hurricanes.

For analogs, went with 1899, 1918, 1951, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, 1997 and 2002. Picked these analogs using the ENSO ONI data found on Eric Webb's website.

I also identified three areas of concern in terms of landfall threat this season, based partially on the frequency of hits found in the analog data plus the seasonal guidance -

1 is the northern Gulf Coast and in particular the Florida Panhandle.

2 is the area from the northern Bahamas to eastern North Carolina.

3 is the Yucatan Peninsula.

All three areas were pretty "lit up" in the analog data.

Full forecast at https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2023-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast-issued-march-20/.

I'm curious: Both you and wxman57 said the Yucatan Peninsula is a hotspot based on analog years. But shouldn't El Nino mean there's too much shear in the Caribbean for storms to impact the area in the first place?

My thinking is that the MDR and the eastern Caribbean could be lacking in tropical activity, but any systems moving westward could find better conditions near the Yucatan.

Also there have been some very impactful seasons in my analog set (look at 1899 in particular). Just because El Niño is coming doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be quiet.


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#32 Postby Ntxw » Mon Mar 20, 2023 10:22 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
My cold-mongering long-range guy whom I've worked with since 1990 says 1951, 1953, 2004, 2009, and 2012. Previously, we also had 1957, 1976, and 2001. Possibly 1950 as well. When I last contacted Phil about it in February, he was thinking 2001 as the best analog. Don't know if that's still true.


Hi wxman thanks for the response.. 2004 doesn't make sense because that was a Central Pacific El Niño in my opinion We're opposite of that. 2001, 2012, 2009 all make sense depending on how strong +ENSO gets I would think. But overall I don’t really see a South Florida threat from that analog set. We shall see


Can analog years really be used like that to determine whether or not an upcoming season would have heightened threats for some specific location in the Atlantic (in this case, S. Florida?) I was under the impression that steering patterns, let alone for individual storms, are virtually impossible to predict this far in advance. I can't remember exactly for certain, but did any of 2022's analog years feature a major S. Florida hit?


LarryWx did a great analysis last year prior and throughout the season of third year Nina/extenuated cold ENSO that favored a hotspot strike along the Eastern GOM and in particular the west coast of Florida well before it happened. So there is some value in presenting analogs as a starting point.

LarryWx wrote:If it were only 1956, 1975, and 2000, I wouldn't have analyzed it. However, I also included 1874, 1894, 1910, and 1917 based on Eric Webb's ONI analysis that goes back to 1850. (It appears that 3rd year Ninas occur ~once every 25 seasons on average.)

Seven seasons is still a small sample and thus is far from being large enough to determine with confidence what's likely to happen. However, after it was earlier hypothesized by others that 3rd year La Nina seasons might tend to not be as active as other La Nina seasons (I don't recall what suddenly brought that idea up but I thought it was interesting and I love doing analyses of analogs), I got curious and decided to analyze the seven seasons to see what actually occurred. I decided to compare these seven to the respective seven prior seasons as opposed to all other La Nina seasons as a whole.

Keeping in mind that the value of this analysis is highly debatable due to small sample size and also that there's a strong randomness factor for deaths and damage, all seven seasons had far FEWER** deaths and damage vs each respective prior season. I should add that 1894, 1910, 1975 and 2000 were still pretty bad. It was just that 1893, 1909, 1974 (due to massive flooding by Fifi in Honduras), and 1999 were some of THE worst seasons impactwise.

Regarding ACE, the average of the seven 3rd year La Nina seasons was 79, which is near normal. The average of the respective seven seasons prior (all were 2nd year La Ninas)'was a whopping 133! (Out of curiosity, I looked at the other seven 2nd year La Ninas (1890, 1950, 1971, 1984, 2008, 2011, and 2017) and they averaged a very similar 132 ACE.))

Regarding the seven 3rd year Nina seasons, 1894 with four majors still had an active ACE (135). Also, 1975 and 2000 both had three majors. In addition, keep in mind that 2021 had 4 majors, an ACE of 146, and a whopping $81 billion in damage. So, even IF 2022 were to not reach any of those 2021 levels and considering we're still VERY early in the season climowise, it could still be a bad year (hopefully not), especially considering the current very active era and that it isn't El Niño. Plus 2022 has already had three storms, which is above average as of mid July. One last thing: if you live on the Gulf coast of FL, you may want to be a little extra wary (being that all seven 3rd year Niña seasons happened to have had pretty heavy impacts there) just in case these analogs happen to be onto something there.


Eric Webb's ONI analysis:
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html

**Corrected for typo
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#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 24, 2023 6:37 pm

Going to be bold here. :D I can see this 2023 season like 2002 that had 12/4/2 with a weak el niño. But hey, is only my take and dont be influenced when posting your set of numbers on the 2023 Storm2K poll.

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#34 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:19 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#35 Postby Blown Away » Wed Mar 29, 2023 4:18 pm



ECMWF seems to bias towards drier conditions and fewer storms with forecasts, so maybe numbers closer to a normal season might be the outcome.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 29, 2023 8:43 pm

Accuweather releases their forecast.

From articule:

According to AccuWeather's team of tropical weather forecasters, it will be less active than the majority of seasons since 1995 and may feature a similar number of storms when compared to 2022. But that doesn't mean there won't be dangers.

Current projections indicate that the 2023 season will be near the historical average with 11-15 named storms. Four to eight of those named storms are expected to reach hurricane strength, with one to three of those hurricanes achieving major hurricane status. A major hurricane is one that has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and is rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.


https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1503557

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#37 Postby SFLcane » Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:Accuweather releases their forecast.

From articule:

According to AccuWeather's team of tropical weather forecasters, it will be less active than the majority of seasons since 1995 and may feature a similar number of storms when compared to 2022. But that doesn't mean there won't be dangers.

Current projections indicate that the 2023 season will be near the historical average with 11-15 named storms. Four to eight of those named storms are expected to reach hurricane strength, with one to three of those hurricanes achieving major hurricane status. A major hurricane is one that has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and is rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.


https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1503557

https://i.imgur.com/Vn4AKpd.jpg


One more quote...

Florida, Puerto Rico and South Carolina endured the worst of 2022, which included strikes from menacing tempests such as hurricanes Ian and Fiona in September then Nicole, which made a rare late-season landfall on Florida’s east coast in November. Unfortunately for those in the Sunshine State who are still recovering from those punishing hurricanes, AccuWeather forecasters say the state will once again be at a higher risk than other parts of the country.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#38 Postby JetFuel_SE » Fri Mar 31, 2023 2:56 pm

SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Accuweather releases their forecast.

From articule:

According to AccuWeather's team of tropical weather forecasters, it will be less active than the majority of seasons since 1995 and may feature a similar number of storms when compared to 2022. But that doesn't mean there won't be dangers.

Current projections indicate that the 2023 season will be near the historical average with 11-15 named storms. Four to eight of those named storms are expected to reach hurricane strength, with one to three of those hurricanes achieving major hurricane status. A major hurricane is one that has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and is rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.


https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1503557

https://i.imgur.com/Vn4AKpd.jpg


One more quote...

Florida, Puerto Rico and South Carolina endured the worst of 2022, which included strikes from menacing tempests such as hurricanes Ian and Fiona in September then Nicole, which made a rare late-season landfall on Florida’s east coast in November. Unfortunately for those in the Sunshine State who are still recovering from those punishing hurricanes, AccuWeather forecasters say the state will once again be at a higher risk than other parts of the country.

It's AccuWeather, so it's likely we'll be having a long island express instead of normal-behaving storms. /s
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#39 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Apr 03, 2023 8:22 pm

When does the CSU's April forecast come out? I'm guessing sometime this week since it's typically the first week of the month.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#40 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 03, 2023 8:28 pm

AnnularCane wrote:When does the CSU's April forecast come out? I'm guessing sometime this week since it's typically the first week of the month.


I guess is because of holy week that this year will be on the second week. That day will be very important because apart from CSU, CPC will release their April update about ENSO.

CSU will release its first forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, April 13 at 10am EDT.
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