Verification of the CSU forecasts.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-11.pdf
Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:Verification of the CSU forecasts.
https://i.imgur.com/d5IpyTk.jpg
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-11.pdf
Back when each of the CSU forecasts was up, people were calling them too aggressive and were certain that the season would end up below average. It's incredible how well they verified when it comes to almost every single metric.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU Verification of 2023 forecasts is up
NOAA has a summary.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023- ... ms-in-year
https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/1729532521925190021
The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023, which ranks fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023- ... ms-in-year
https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/1729532521925190021
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Teban54 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Verification of the CSU forecasts.
https://i.imgur.com/d5IpyTk.jpg
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-11.pdf
Back when each of the CSU forecasts was up, people were calling them too aggressive and were certain that the season would end up below average. It's incredible how well they verified when it comes to almost every single metric.
I thought 160 ACE was too aggressive at the time and I was correct. They overpredicted in July and August although they were still good forecasts. Much better than the UK Met Office which went for a ridiculous >200 ACE.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU & NOAA verification of 2023 forecasts are up
To sum everything up:
Looks like a super warm Atlantic does indeed win over El Nino, at least activity-wise.
Looks like a super warm Atlantic does indeed win over El Nino, at least activity-wise.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
al78 wrote:Teban54 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Verification of the CSU forecasts.
https://i.imgur.com/d5IpyTk.jpg
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-11.pdf
Back when each of the CSU forecasts was up, people were calling them too aggressive and were certain that the season would end up below average. It's incredible how well they verified when it comes to almost every single metric.
I thought 160 ACE was too aggressive at the time and I was correct. They overpredicted in July and August although they were still good forecasts. Much better than the UK Met Office which went for a ridiculous >200 ACE.
Umm, I don't think 146 vs 160 ACE is that much of a difference, especially given how unpredictable ACE can be and how many random factors go into it. It probably falls within the standard deviation (not to mention it would likely have been much higher if the Bermuda high wasn't non-existent).
If the season ended with 120 ACE, then yeah we can say the forecast busted too high.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Teban54 wrote:al78 wrote:Teban54 wrote:Back when each of the CSU forecasts was up, people were calling them too aggressive and were certain that the season would end up below average. It's incredible how well they verified when it comes to almost every single metric.
I thought 160 ACE was too aggressive at the time and I was correct. They overpredicted in July and August although they were still good forecasts. Much better than the UK Met Office which went for a ridiculous >200 ACE.
Umm, I don't think 146 vs 160 ACE is that much of a difference, especially given how unpredictable ACE can be and how many random factors go into it. It probably falls within the standard deviation (not to mention it would likely have been much higher if the Bermuda high wasn't non-existent).
If the season ended with 120 ACE, then yeah we can say the forecast busted too high.
Hence why I added they were still good forecasts, I never said they busted.
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