Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU & NOAA verification of 2023 forecasts are up

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#41 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Apr 03, 2023 9:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:When does the CSU's April forecast come out? I'm guessing sometime this week since it's typically the first week of the month.


I guess is because of holy week that this year will be on the second week. That day will be very important because apart from CSU, CPC will release their April update about ENSO.

CSU will release its first forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, April 13 at 10am EDT.



Oh pooh. Maybe that's why nobody's been talking about it. Well, thanks. 8-)
1 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138883
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: WeatherTiger is up

#42 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 06, 2023 7:32 am

The forecast from WeatherTiger is up.

Excerpt:

This spring, water temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are well above normal, and more broadly, areas with a positive relationship between spring SSTs and a more active hurricane season are significantly warmer than normal. This isn’t too surprising as the North Atlantic is the hottest it has ever been for early April, and again, those relationships are still weak this far away from the season. However, unseasonable Atlantic heat more typical of mid-May further ups the stakes of El Niño actually developing, as there’s no indication of Atlantic SSTs being unfavorable to hurricanes in 2023.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR is up

#43 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Apr 06, 2023 10:02 am

The Tropical Storm Risk April forecast is up. Calls for a slightly below average season. 12-6-2 84 ACE

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... il2023.pdf
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138883
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: WeatherTiger and TSR are up

#44 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 06, 2023 10:36 am

Excerpt:

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: WeatherTiger and TSR are up

#45 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Apr 06, 2023 8:40 pm

0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#46 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 08, 2023 8:13 am

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1644339934969450498




I'm really looking forward to Phil's forecast in 5 days. Clearly, even he, a very well-known and praised tropical met who has been forecasting seasons for many years, seems conflicted assuming Mark's statement is true.
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Landy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:43 pm
Location: Port Orange, FL

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#47 Postby Landy » Sat Apr 08, 2023 10:35 am

University of Arizona released their April forecast yesterday, quite bullish considering the overall consensus I've seen. Predicting 19/9/5 with next forecast in early June 2023. Their sample size is pretty small, but their April forecast last year was the closest in verification, so it'll be interesting to see how this verifies.

Image

Link to the report: https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/april_2023_tropical_cyclone_forecast.pdf
4 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#48 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 08, 2023 11:20 am

Landy wrote:University of Arizona released their April forecast yesterday, quite bullish considering the overall consensus I've seen. Predicting 19/9/5 with next forecast in early June 2023. Their sample size is pretty small, but their April forecast last year was the closest in verification, so it'll be interesting to see how this verifies.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1094283153683791932/Screenshot_2023-04-08-11-29-04-76_e2d5b3f32b79de1d45acd1fad96fbb0f.jpg

Link to the report: https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/april_2023_tropical_cyclone_forecast.pdf


Whoa. Must really be the warm sea surface temperatures that are causing them to predict such high numbers :eek:
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 735
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#49 Postby Astromanía » Sat Apr 08, 2023 12:00 pm

:lol: :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
JetFuel_SE
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 261
Age: 24
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#50 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Apr 08, 2023 2:59 pm

Landy wrote:University of Arizona released their April forecast yesterday, quite bullish considering the overall consensus I've seen. Predicting 19/9/5 with next forecast in early June 2023. Their sample size is pretty small, but their April forecast last year was the closest in verification, so it'll be interesting to see how this verifies.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1094283153683791932/Screenshot_2023-04-08-11-29-04-76_e2d5b3f32b79de1d45acd1fad96fbb0f.jpg

Link to the report: https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/april_2023_tropical_cyclone_forecast.pdf

They've done well recently (this was last years forecasts)
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138883
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#51 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:01 am

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#52 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:57 am



I really look forward to this! Gonna be very interesting how Phil interprets the dual "super-warmth" in both the EPAC and the Atlantic
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138883
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#53 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 12, 2023 12:29 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:


I really look forward to this! Gonna be very interesting how Phil interprets the dual "super-warmth" in both the EPAC and the Atlantic


Always the CSU forecast is the one all are waiting for to open the gates for the season of forecasts as is the most known from many years from the late William Gray to now the great alumm of him Phil Klotzbach.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138883
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#54 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:08 am

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#55 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:15 am



Definitely a tricky forecast. But it is interesting to see how Phil acknowledges the potential for that crazy Atlantic warmth to somewhat blunt the Nino's otherwise deleterious effects on Atlantic activity.
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9593
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#56 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:25 am

Interesting indeed...

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#57 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:26 am

Not too far from my own (preliminary) prediction. :)
1 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#58 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:36 am

SFLcane wrote:Interesting indeed...

https://i.postimg.cc/13zSdgtP/csu.jpg


If this were a first year La Nina year with the same level of Atlantic warmth we're seeing now, I would have believed the statistical models forecast. I think the El Nino is definitely going to reduce potential activity, but it might not be as much as if, for say, the Atlantic were to be cooler.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138883
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#59 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:42 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=13/6/2

#60 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:46 am

Be interesting if this season actually wound up being even more active than predicted, like 2015. I was just looking at the forecasts for 2015 and the expert predictions for named storms ranged from 7 to 11. CSU named storm predictions were only 7 and 8. I haven't looked at the S2K predictions, but I think a lot of us (myself included) were fully expecting another 1997.
Last edited by AnnularCane on Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: NessFrogVenom, Zonacane, zzzh and 54 guests